NZ have been disappointing in the tests, and am expecting much of the same in Hamilton, if we get 4+ days of play.

Its obviously been tough on them, to lose Taylor/Boult .. and they seem to try v hard, but, S.Africa, just have the edge .. especially in the bowling departments.

There is a Balloon festival over Waikato right now - and they flew 3 days before game time .. but, rain is expected 1-2 days in.

Draw is currently 1.8x on Bf .. low enough in my view .. as Philander took a 10 wkt haul here last time, and hes bowling well. Have had to back S,A at 3.0+.

Hope Boult gets to play // and De Kok, who is also a maybe.

And Pattinson

NZ have ruled out Boult, Southee.

Their record of winning a test without at least one of them, is v poor.

SA 2.66
Draw 2.2
NZ 6

Have great value on SA back/draw lay.

Im putting my whole roll on SA to win now, huge blows with no pace spearheads

Good chance to give some other quicks experience though

Matt Henry averages 56 with the ball in test matches. fifty ****ing six!

Weather forecasts are all over the place, but, the 2 days before the test were dry (as expected).

No wind this am .. (Balloons couldnt fly) - am not sure if thats relevent or not .. as wind may pick up, when the bad weather is supposed to come in.

I think Day 1 will be clear .. and, am hoping NZ bat, and finish 6 down or so.

If SA bat, could see draw shortening, if they rack up a big total // or look like scoring big, albeit slowly.

I love day trading cricket .. but, u need first hand info, and a strong opinion.

Have a v lop-sided book, with NZ a big loser. SA a decent winner, draw a small winner.

One last note :

SA have won 8 tosses in a row .. T20, 5 x ODI with Abd, and 2 tests, with Faff, on this tour.

Not sure how I would bet, for 9 in a row.

This is ridiculous, crazy run, hasnt helped us 1 bit

Id say its 50/50 to be 9 loses in row

SA or draw double chance is a megalock

My forecast app predicts rain 4 out of the 5 days

Still looking forward to the game, just love tests and will take satisfaction in the small victorys like a Nicolls 50 or a Wagner 3 for lol

Just like the old days when we were even more rubbish lol

9 toss losses in a row jfc

I'm pretty sure that, given an average height toss which falls to the ground, you win > 70% of the time by calling the opposite ot the side of the coin you are shown.

Odd decision by Faff to bat .. but maybe spin etc.

Shame they couldn't get more overs in .. 30 mins xtra tomorrow,
If rain stays away.

Draw now 1.38 ..

V short - Williamson was arguing with umpires about going back in to play
- he wanted to .. so, expect result play from him.

Same book .. but, less win on draw, and happy just to go for jackpots
On SA.

Was asked how a day trader - trades sports.

Will post pics later -- no laptop.

Nice dundalk

I appreciate your contributions to this thread

I piled in SA or draw double chance before the game started

Put a bit on Ind or Aus to win double chance too

Wow great start for Aus too, dropping Warner off the 1st ball wasnt nice

If only these Aussies can win this test match and series it will show how average the Kiwis are

No worries :

Ok, day trading sports, u need a bank, in various places, to make sure u get best odds, can arb (in the golden years), a strong knowledge of your sport, and an opinion.

Fr instance .. at close of play (Cop), the draw was 1.38, on an exchange. As there are no transaction costs, it costs me nothing to offer to lay 1.38 .. and, if someone takes it, I can try to buy back, at the price I feel is right. As it happened, the draw is now 1.41 .. only a 2c move, but, if u do it wnough times, u are like a casino.

I try to make 0.5% - 1% on my turnover, during a test. I can easily trade, a big number.

Here are some pics .. of 2 of my positions. I have 6 main outlets, so, the numnbers are meaningless, (for the overall position) - I keep it on a spreadsheet.

In case I lose this post, (has happened before, will post pics seperate.

http://imgur.com/gallery/HcQxV volume on one site

http://imgur.com/gallery/ED6Tu position site 1

http://imgur.com/gallery/p6UxQ position site 2

Ok, hope u can see pics.

So, basically, I market make, across many sites .. its a long day, whilst also chatting with various opinions, I respect.

After a while, u spot 'value' .. ok, so, sometimes, the value is corrupt .. but, it comes out in the wash.

I wish the US sports were more liquid .. baseball etc, would be great to trade in-running.

Maybe, one day ..

Oh, and I should have mentioned social media.

Post a lot on twitter etc .. especially with photos, and u will quickly get followers.

Once u have these followers .. its fairly easy to predict, that if u post a pic, of it .. say raining .. at least a few will consider it reason to push the price lower.

Some .. ramp prices, in a way, to suit their book. I dont do this .. but, a picture does not always paint a thousand words ..

I have seen some v odd things happen // especially when there is no ground power, or Tv is cut.

But, thats another story.

2 hrs before scheduled start time ( long day), and taking
Pics of grd, thru the gates. Post later.

Think grd fit .. will play most of day .. draw now 1.47.

I make it bigger.

Weather holding for 1st session, but, radar is confusing, as a belt of rain, from Auckland, may come down and hit, or may move off to sea.

Am stubbornly sticking with book, (laying draw more).

Hope SA bowl soon after lunch .. and get some quick sticks.

At lunch, odd spot of rain .. and new belt of rain just appeard on radar.

Tricky.

V tough day.

Book heavily weighted towards SA, and needed a wkt or 2.

Fair play to NZ, they batted pretty well.

Fcast for tmrrw is pretty bad .. but still want to be
more with SA than draw. NZ would b terra-bad.. but,
they genuine 7.5 chances.

NOOOOIIIIIIIICE GARY!


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They say : 'When u are going thru Hell, keep walking'

Well, I have picked out my bridge. NZ have me on the ropes, and, there is a definate chance they can win.

The weather seems clear for Day 4, and, I imagine, just after lunch/before Tea, SA will bat, with a deficit of maybe 130, and it will be v unpleasant viewing.

All the money is coming for NZ .. and, its possible, SA mentally, will be in a bad place, to defend (plane ride home/IPL etc).

No real excuses . I have a firm opinion, and tend to stick to it.

If they win, it wont be pleasant.

(( In other news .. Williamson is a class act // starting to wonder about Faff .. 1st, mintgate, now, ball 'tampering' and slow play. Maybe he deserves a ban.))

I was also surpised Morkel gave Ravel such a send-off ..

//

In Aus, Smith was unlucky, and the first 12 or so overs from India, seemed really on target. Looks a great contest.

Lol us

lol Australia

Kane GOAT

Looking good for an unlikely kiwi win

Dundalk praying for rain lol

Im gonna lose fairly big if we win
n but Id rather we win!

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