Getting pretty excited for saturday. Bought the fight hd stream for 20 euros in.belgium here. Prob floyd wins this but who knows. Dont really care who winds, whatever gets conor back in the ufc and start defending his title

Where did you buy the stream from? Currently in the Netherlands and am weighing up options

jack slack breaks down mayweather mcgregor

https://www.fightprimer.com/blog/201...conor-mcgregor

Paddy Power (Irish bookmaker) have paid out on Mayweather winning.

https://sbcnews.co.uk/latestnews/201...payout-gamble/

Was just about to get the PPV from UFC for 30 euro when I see the biggest tv channel in my country bought all the fights and it's free wtf?

Hahaha genius. Now dumb Irishmen will bend over backwards to bet on Connor there. ILL SHOW YOU FOOKERS HERE TAKE MY MONEY GO ON TAKE IT

great article

"Right now is very interesting situation for boxing," he continues. "Last few years, not interesting. Klitschko brothers, not interesting. Mayweather-Pacquiao, not interesting. Right now, very serious. New blood. Is coming."

Golovkin thinks there's room for style and for substance. "If you want to watch, like, a show, like Cirque du Soleil, just watch," he says. "If you want true boxing fight, best fight in boxing, welcome to September 16."

https://www.si.com/boxing/2017/08/22...iew-canelo-ggg

I'll be watching it. Got free entry to a pub to watch live. Tickets sold out in just a couple of days. Big Conor support in Scotland to no one's surprise. Hell I want Conor to win. He just won't.

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This is solid.

Didn't they also pay out early on Hillary winning the election?

I am having a real hard time with the market for this fight. I know there is a 99.99% chance Mayweather wins, but what is driving the line down so much? Are there just that many more MMA fans out there just betting on McGregor? I can't believe $20 bets are driving the line down to absurd levels. Are books just taking such lopsided action that they have no choice but to tee up Mayweather for the sharps on Saturday?

Yes, there are many more tickets on Conor and by some accounts more money on Conor as well. Every single book has a huge liability on a Conor win. They all want to be rooting for Mayweather, but they don't want to lose so much that it will take them the whole NFL season to win it back.

supposedly 7000 tickets still not sold

It's not just your standard books though. If this fight is such a lock for Mayweather who on earth is laying him for hundreds and hundreds of thousands on betfair?

English premier league tends to be the most liquid and efficient markets on that site and your standard Manchester United on TV match is getting dwarfed here. It is rare an event attracts such large amounts of money several days before it actually happens. All signs point to the market showing the true price but something doesn't add up.

They are like our national bookmakers, of course dumb Irish men will be falling over themselves to bet in their shops.

7k seats still unsold? Fight for the ages my arse.

Mayweather v any other boxer and I make it my business to stay up and watch, same goes for McGregor v any other mma fighter. Unlikely I bother myself to be up before 6am to watch this clownshow.

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/8/22/1...-betting-money

from the manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

tickets: 92% McGregor (13-1 ratio)
money: 81% Mayweather

If 81% of the $ is on Floyd then why is the line -450?

Unless that is just the westgate since they take bigger bets?

that's interesting and also tells me that most of the smart money is already in in some way.

well the line wasn't always where it is now, but lets just assume the average $ on Floyd is at -500 and the average bet on Conor is at +425.

If you have $1mm in total bets thats $810k on Mayweather to win $162k ($972k total payout) and $190k on Conor to win $807.5k ($997,500 total payout). Thus, the book is winning both ways, but they are winning more on Mayweather.

Since many multiples of $1mm are being bet the liabilities/profits will be based on different average betting lines, but I can't imagine any book wanting to root for Conor so they'll make sure it doesn't tilt in that direction.

loooooooooool this was well done

Yes. X-posted from the Boxing thread (and the link shows some of the history of other previous early payouts, including a PP loss or two):

Relevant x-post from Boxing thread:

PP says they paid out £250,000 ($320,000) of Mayweather winnings, meaning that a little over £1 million ($1.3 million) had been bet on Mayweather so far.

Meanwhile, they are "predicting more than £200 million ($256 million) in bets - with most of the money expected to come in the 36 hours before the bout. It is more than three times the size of the next biggest boxing market, when Mayweather fought Manny Pacquiao in 2015, and by far the Paddy Power’s biggest event of the year."

https://news.paddypower.com/boxing/2...ather-victory/[/QUOTE]

If that is anywhere close to accurate (and even if it's way way off, actually), most of the money has not come in yet, both smart and dumb.

This is good and accurate. An even simpler explanation would be that 81%/19% = +-426 vig-free line on a balanced book, which is relatively close to the -450 Floyd line being discussed.

Just made the biggest sports bet of my life, Mayweather by KO/DQ -130. Would have gotten -120 had my gf not kept me on the phone all night. The rake, indeed.

Didn't know there was a press conf in 5 minutes.

^^ yup. it's live currently.



p.s looks like they removed Paulie from the broadcasting team,

So what's the proper play if you get paid out by paddy power? Put it right back on mayweather right? If it was plus ev before then it's still a plus ev bet