There seems to be a narrative running here that money is pushing Connor's odds out, this isn't what seems to be happening in the UK market.

Currently Floyd is 1.17 on Betfair, but all the money is pushing that down quickly:



There's about 4x the money waiting on the 'Back' side of the line than on the 'Lay'

Looking at the historical line it shows a steady decline in Floyd's odds from a peak (albeit brief) of 1.25 to the current 1.17.



Question is, I guess, where does it finish on fight night? Because I definitely want all my bets laid off at the opening bell.

In US history, probably the most famous is the Black Sox of 1919. Of more recent vintage is the Tim Donaghy scandal (he's an NBA ref that rigged foul calls for money).

And Pete Rose, of course.

The odds are so ******ed that it must be a fix. That's the latest angle ITT. What is more likely a giant conspiracy sports rig going on or people are just that dumb? Occam's razor. Just ask any casual fan and the answer should be clear.

The thing is, a fix is possible. I don't *think* it's fixed either, but if you're going to place a wager you have to assign it some sort of probability and factor it in. Even just a 5% chance of a fix is relevant given the odds offered and "true" win probabilities assumed if no fix.

Basically it comes down to "is it likely enough to be fixed to make the odds available not worth taking." For me, it's definitely not THAT likely, and so I have a decent bet on Floyd, but the possibility is stopping me emptying the bank accounts.

The longer and longer the odds stay this good for Floyd though, the worse I feel about my bet. I thought for sure he'd be at least -1000 by now. I didn't even get best price I took -625 very early, thinking it almost certainly would come in pretty quickly. This whole thing is weirding me out.

i might consider betting on under 9 (or 10 i forgot) rounds.

Cause if theres a fix its under 10 rounds, and if theres no fix and conor gets lucky its also under 10 rounds.

And conor's cardio sucks so if he doesnt get lucky he probably wont last long.

Was thinking about this today. If (keyword) Mcgregor wins he becomes the biggest sports star in world no? he will be monumental. What would even happen? Conor's ego would implode. He'd be fighting the best fighters in world regardless of his actual skill level. What would we see next from him?

this only came to mind because I was trying to figure out what would happen if Floyd threw the fight.

He doesn't become the biggest spots star in the world because hardly anyone cares about MMA or boxing compared to soccer, basketball or NFL.

the fight being fixed is a conspiracy theory by me and will not in any way impact the line. Most professional gamblers do not agree with my theory(or at least I've never heard from them about it).


I mean, this is a bit of semantics here, but the point is....

I thought this might be the single most profitable betting opportunity of my lifetime, yet so far I have not bet on it because I think there is a X% chance that the fight is fixed and X = a big enough number that it would negate the apparent edge.


I'm certainly not saying that I have proof or any sort of certainty(that would make me want to bet on Conor) about the fight being fixed. Its totally a conspiracy theory, but it is indeed causing me to alter my bets by $10-25k.


Has anyone here actually bet on Conor? Does anyone here know anybody who has bet on Conor?

I live in Vegas and hang out at poker tables a fair bit, yet I have not met a single person who has bet on Conor. This strikes me as incredibly odd considering that the claim is that there are multitudes of small bets coming in on Conor that are offsetting the huge bets made by professional gamblers on Floyd.

I'm curious about your friends....I don't think I have any non-gambling friends who would hear me say "I have been a professional gambler for 10+ years and betting on Floyd is the single best bet I have ever seen by a country mile" and maintain that they are correct about wanting to bet on Conor. How exactly do these conversations go?


What risk? Worst case scenario, the public finds out for sure that it was fixed....and? What happens? Its not like they'll have to issue a refund.

The upside is so ridiculously enormous. I said $1,000,000,000, but honestly it could even be bigger than that. If Conor beats Floyd, he could become the most famous person on earth and start demanding $100mil+/fight going forward. If Floyd has a percentage of that, then there is clear incentive for him to fix the fight.


Why? What has Floyd ever said or done that makes you think he values the opinions of boxing fans over any amount of money, yet alone a huge amount?


This is fascinating(and I'm not sure would even call it "a fix" since both teams are looking out for their own best interests).

There was a somewhat similar possible scenario in NFL a few years ago whereby 2 teams were playing in week 17, and the winner would go to the playoffs but they would both miss if they tied. This meant that if the game went to OT and there was only time for one last play then if the defense tackled the offensive player it would mean their season was over(their only chance would be to try for a strip, and then the other team would be in the same position).


The bolded isn't the actual scenario though. Its not just that people have to be dumb. Its that people have to be dumb, have money to put on a fight that won't happen for 2 months, and this has to happen often enough that it completely offsets all the money coming in from pros on the single greatest betting opportunity of their careers.


yea this is kinda how I feel, and theres def a chance I end up putting some money on Floyd, but I def won't be going super huge on it.

if he ever wanted to fix a fight he would've fixed a fight with Manny, who's actually a world class boxer, and not even necessarily throw it - just lose 3 more rounds so he either wins or loses a super narrow decision which would set up an immediate rematch and no one would suspect a thing

the option was available when no one even knew who CM was, and there were zero other big fights on the horizon

throwing a fight vs Conor is extremely risky and will have every boxing analyst on every network up in arms, it's like throwing a fight vs one handed ******ed kid - very difficult to pull off

Boxing offers good value sometimes. It is what it is. I'm pretty sure I made 68 cents per dollar on Bernard Hopkins vs Oscar De La Hoya, the lock of the century imo.

FWIW, I think I'll be betting on Conor, probably making my bet on fight night though...

All I want to see is Connor getting frustrated with Floyd running and scoring that he just elbows Mayweather across the bridge of his nose, knocking him down and getting the DQ.

I wouldn't consider this fixing. What you have is two teams with no incentive to attack, the game state for the last 80 minutes is one I'd expect with or without fixing. It was a flaw in the system which they fixed by having the final round of the group stage matches take place simultaneously (for each group).

There still are some problems with the tiebreaker rules though. In the final round of group stages in the Euro 2004, Denmark and Sweden would both advance over Italy (even assuming Italy beat Bulgaria) if and only if their game ended 2-2. It did and the fury of the Italians was glorious.

Absurd. Floyd is known internationally because boxing is popular in places like Mexico and Asia. No one outside the USA has heard of McGregor or MMA. Both sports are marginal next to football(soccer), cricket, rugby, basketball, auto racing, motorcycle racing, and probably even bicycle racing (many more people know who Chris Froome is than know who Floyd Mayweather is).

The risks include spending a long time in prison and no future paydays. Being killed is another risk.

Bolded is laughably wrong.

with any regular boxing match i'd say there is always a possibility of it being rigged (mostly when it goes to the scorecards) because the judging is simply that bad in boxing.

floyd cares to much about his boxing record and his legacy to ever rig this in favour of conor or even a draw. If it goes to scorecards they'll always favour floyd over conor (if it's somehow even remotely close - which it won't be)

the only chance conor has got is going to be inside the first 2-3 rounds

This is utter nonsense.

conor's cardio is a lot better now than you think

he never used to train his cardiovascular system. Let's just say he became over confident and thought he could knock everyone out in the UFC inside 1 round.

Since that first diaz fight he has brought specialist guys in to help him with the cardiovascular training.

biggest problem for conor is that floyd should be able to hit him whenever he feels like it, so if the fight does go into the later rounds those body shots floyd will be throwing will empty that gas tank pretty quickly.

Who was bigger than Ali or Tyson at the time of their peaks? Honest question because I don't know, wasn't around then. I can't name a basketball or NFL player from those eras (I am European. OK OK Michael Jordan and OJ). Tyson had a 37-0 record in the 80's. MJ didn't win a championship in the 80's. But I know nothing about basketball so maybe MJ obviously bigger. Can name soccer players but they weren't as well known I'd say because obviously Americans wouldn't know them. Superstar combat fighters become well known everywhere.

Do people even know who Mayweather is in Europe? Outside of people who spend their day on sports forums I mean. And MMA registers even less. IIRC the Mayweather-Paq fight gained some notoriety here in Germany, but it was mostly because Sky pissed everyone off with relentless advertising of it during football broadcasts. I haven't seen any mention of the upcoming fight in mainstream media. For there to be any kind of shock value, people need to be aware of and somewhat familiar with the fighters, which isn't the case here. So Connor winning would not make waves since no one knows how big a shock it is.

Maybe this is different in other euro countries but I can't imagine it's even close to the point where Conor would get super famous.

mayweather cultural impact report:

me mum met mayweather on a train when he was doing promo for the ricky fatton fight. she was the ticket collector

she said she assumed the famous boxer she'd been told was on her train must've been the 7 foot 350lb bloke rather than the little pipsqueak he was sitting next to

also when telling me this story she kept calling him pennyweather

conclusion: his fame has not crossed over to old women with no interest in sports. she knows who tyson is tho

0% chance she's ever heard of mma let alone mcgregor

It really is insane how dumb the gen pop is. I have two bets with people, laying 3-1 on FMJ. Yes, you read that right.

Exactly. I've been ****ed hard by boxing before, nothing would shock me.

This is the best bet to take with a book imo.

Current bookmaker odds:

O9.5 +150

U9.5 -180

My mom certainly doesn't know Mayweather but I'm pretty sure she doesn't know who LeBron James is either so I wasn't taking her as a benchmark

Could someone please explain the US betting odds to me?

Is '+800' the same as 8-1 for example?

I think poker players over-estimate casual fans ability to calculate 'true' odds. Or that they really even care.

FFS the roulette tables are always rammed with people betting on a number for 32/1 when the wheel has 34 numbers on it