It seems Mcgregor's troll game is rock solid.

CJ Watson probably hoping people forgot that, oh well

I'm surprised they didnt pull the race card when conor called him kid.

kid is not the same as boy

ITT Tyson would need to get lucky in a street fight. Got it.

People had definitely forgotten that lmao Conor GOAT trolling

If he enters the arena dressed like that he might have a chance in the first round.

conspiracy theory: This fight will be fixed and Conor will win



Reason #1: The "strange" betting line

"Sure Floyd is a 500-1 favorite in reality, but this is such a huge spectacle and there are so many casuals who will bet on it that it'll present the single greatest profitable betting opportunity of our lifetime," said absolutely nobody before the line for this fight was released. Yet now everyone seems perfectly content with that as an explanation. Seems fishy to me....

Do casuals often make bets months in advance? Why would they be incentivized to do this? Why would they prefer to tie their money up? Moreover doesn't thinking its a good idea to bet on Conor negatively correlate with having extraneous funds which you can allocate to a sports bet 2 months from now?

Conversely, isn't it basic professional gambling knowledge that if an opening line appears off that pros should be hammering it as quickly as possible? And aren't professional gamblers the exact group of people who would be able to allocate large funds to a bet that won't be settled for 2 months? Someone better at math than me can figure it out, but if we assume that the true odds are ~500:1 then what does Kelly Criterion say you should be betting when you can get away with only laying 5:1?

I am extremely skeptical that the amount of money coming in from the latter group can outweight the mount of money coming in from the former.


Reason #2: Floyd's desire for money vs his concern for his legacy

"Floyd is going for 50-0 and hes a huge egomaniac, theres no way he would accept a loss!"

You see this type of thinking from fans a lot in regards to money. They think that because an athlete has already made a lot of money they will value success in their sport over earnings for the latter part of their career. While this is true in some cases like Dirk Nowitzki, it is by far the exception rather than the rule.

Moreover, Floyd has always been incredibly clear that he highly values money and he doesn't really give a f*ck what fans think about him. And even if he did value legacy, I think its pretty easily to dismiss a loss 2 years after he "retired" as being past his prime and not reflective of his true greatness.


Reason #3: The amount of money at stake is being underestimated

If Floyd crushes Conor thats most likely the end of Floyd's huge financial earnings(outside of random sponsorships and other business endeavors). Now lets take a look at how much more Floyd could potentially make with a fixed fight....

-Sportsbooks are taking huge $$ amounts of action on this fight. If you knew for a fact that Conor would win and could have ~2 months to get down max action, thats quite a bit.

-The rematch(and possible trilogy)

-Remember how surprised everyone was that this fight came together so quickly(compare to Pac/Floyd for example)....what if the fight being fixed was the plan all along, and in return after Floyd retires he will "manage" Conor and get ~10% of all his future earnings(which would be MASSIVE if he gets the victory over Floyd).



This is probably $1,000,000,000+. How can anyone turn that down?

What's the highest profile match that has been fixed

There's no rematch clause in this fight, if there was then maybe you have some outlandish legs that the fight is fixed to get rematch, but without a rematch clause it's falling on deafs ear. Also if Conor wins a 12 round decision & is a meh fight, the same money in a rematch wont be there, no way Floyd allows conor to knock him out, that's just dumb. There was also a story about a sportsbook turning down a 500k bet on Floyd, if Floyd somehow bet on himself it would have to be in the millions to each sportsbook for throwing the fight to make sense, seems like it's not even possible.

-There doesn't need to be a rematch clause for there to be a rematch. Usually when a big upset happens ala Anderson Silva/Chris Weidman then a rematch is on the table(especially if it'll bring in huge money)

-"Theres no way Floyd allows Conor to knock him out, thats just dumb." It just wrote hundreds of words explaining why it makes sense including the possibility that it nets Floyd over $1 billion. Your response is to call it "dumb"....ok cool, great discussion!

-I was actually assuming max bet for randoms would be $100,000. If you had an organized plan(and the necessary means/funds), it would be quite easy to get $10mil down at 5:1, thus netting $50 mil. And I wouldn't be shocked if he could get way way more than that.

so assani, how much did you bet on mcgregor?

That we know about? Game 6 of Lakers/Kings I guess(or any of the Tim Donaghy allegations). But there have probably been tons that we never found out about.

None, this is definitely a conspiracy theory and not something I believe to be > 50%. However, I probably would've bet between $10-25k on Floyd had I not had thought this, so I am definitely putting my money where my mouth is by letting these thoughts influence my betting action.

I think there's several reasons the fight was scheduled so quick.

1. Conor had a child. Floyd knows Conor is distracted with his newborn so scheduling fight while his hands are full may deter some training.

2. Less time for Mcgregor to train boxing.

If Floyd throws this fight it would be imo a shocking turn of events on the level of Trump winning the presidency.

So Conor ko's one of the best boxers of all time in boxing rules & they rematch in the same boxing rules, why? Floyd will only be older & Conor would only have more time to train, the rematch wouldn't even make sense to market it. Conor vs winner of ggg/Canelo would actually become a bigger fight $ wise. i don't see how Floyd benefits by throwing the fight unless he can legit bet 10's of millions on Conor, which he can't.

If there was to be a rematch it would have to be where Floyd schools him & they agree to do it in mma, they could agree to just let Floyd win easily in boxing & tell Conor to take him down quick n choke him & Floyd taps. Nobody would get hurt & both makes 100's of millions, that's the best way to do it if you wanted to be scummy & game the public imo. I have more faith in Conor though, he ain't throwing the fight.

Only one reason tbh, they wanted Sept date but ggg vs Canelo took it & they wanted to one up that fight & not schedule the fighter after ggg vs Canelo. Probably even something personal with golden boy & mayweather promotions where Floyd wanted to hurt their pockets as well, as we can see GGG vs Canelo promotion is severely hindered by this Mcgregor Floyd fight & so is every other fight being made around this time. Not to mention they aren't competing with NFL, NBA etc in August hence the date.

Whether your kid is 3 months old or 3 years old, you will be distracted. LOL at thinking Conor is waking up in the middle of the night to feed the baby or changing diapers.

How much more time does CM need training in boxing for this fight? Another few months won't do sh!!t to the outcome.

Assani, do you expect the betting line to move towards 500:1 nearer to the fight? The line hasn't really moved so why would a professional gambler tie up money early when the same line will be available later?

Thread delivers more frequently than the average mail man

We disagree to such a large extent that I don't think its worth discussing. Conor/Floyd II would be massive imo.



I don't have any insight into this particular line. But in general, when a professional gambler believes an opening line is way off and all professional gamblers agree with him then yes you absolutely should expect it to move closer to the true line before closing. Why would you think otherwise? Is there any previous case of a line being massively out of whack according to 95+% of professional bettors and the line doesn't move accordingly before close?

But if the fight is fixed and Floyd is in on it then it should be 500 to 1 in the other direction. So either way it is nowhere close to the true line. Why would you think its more likely to move towards Floyd in this instance if you're a professional gambler?

Not betting is putting your money where your mouth is? LOL, ok.

Conor Mcgregor & Universal studios to release a movie about his life soon, wtf. Seems like he's ready to retire.

http://www.conormcgregorfilm.com/

I'm with Assani that the line and movement have made no sense for legitimate handicapping.