Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th) - Page 14 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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06-22-2017 , 03:35 PM

#326

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 47,046

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

really? this is legal?

If so then Floyd should work on getting $300mm down on himself so he makes an extra $50mm.

Cant bet against yourself obv, but yes, youre allowed to bet on yourself.

Quote

06-22-2017 , 03:46 PM

#327

Ra_Z_Boy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 36,966

Floyd should put about half a billion on himself.

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06-22-2017 , 04:06 PM

#328

electricladylnd

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,550

Wasn't there a middle weight that took his advertising money and net on himself?

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06-22-2017 , 04:17 PM

#329

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 47,046

Quote:

Originally Posted by electricladylnd

Wasn't there a middle weight that took his advertising money and net on himself?

BHop against Toto I believe.

Quote

06-22-2017 , 06:55 PM

#330

unwantedguest

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by BRpokah

Yea you are agreeing with me right?

On Sportingbet if you bet $100 on PBF:

by KO - You win $375 ($275 profit)
by TKO - You win $350 ($250 profit)
by DQ - You win $1200($1100 profit)
by KO,TKO or DQ - $172.70($72.7 profit)

Yes.

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06-22-2017 , 08:23 PM

#331

electricladylnd

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,550

Quote:

Originally Posted by RT

BHop against Toto I believe.

That's it, I could picture the fake tattoo on his back of the advertisment but I couldn't remember his name.

Quote

06-22-2017 , 08:30 PM

#332

_Drogo_

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 443

Quote:

Originally Posted by JudgeHoldem

what should be the true odds on this fight?

mayweather 1/25?

I've mulled this over a bit. My first instinct was 100-1 against Mcgregor and I feel like that isn't too far off. Considering how he has looked sparring against pros and that Mayweather is literally the best boxer in the world it doesn't seem unreasonable to me. I might be persuaded to go as low as 50-1 considering the size and age difference but somewhere between 50 or 100 to 1 is the true line and I'm an MMA fan more than a boxing fan.

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06-22-2017 , 09:04 PM

#333

gregorio

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 39,313

Quote:

Originally Posted by mutigers

i'm with you DTD on the same point i don't understand that logic at all. who is making that much money in 2 months where it doesn't make sense to bet this stupid line if you are a sharp. but what do i know

Friend of mine converted BTC to bet on Floyd last Friday. A few days later the price of BTC was up so much he was already down $200 on the conversion. If BTC continues to rise like crazy (it's gone from about $1000-2700 since April), he could win his bet and be down overall.

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06-23-2017 , 03:06 AM

#334

mutigers

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 37,175

i have to admit i don't really understand how the price of bitcoin or whatever cryptocurrency is relevant here

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06-23-2017 , 03:13 AM

#335

Dudd

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Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

We all would lose money for choosing to tie up our money in dollar denominated investments instead of bitcoin obviously

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06-23-2017 , 03:51 AM

#336

ballin4life

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 2,121

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sven O

even though a sharp has a lot less than 5% edge on the market. a million dollars tied up for 2.5 months might mean tens of millions in less bets. Even with less then a 1% edge it would be more lucrative to turn over that million 10 times then betting the fight at better odds.

Plus they can`t know for sure where the odds will go.

Are the books even taking million dollar bets right now on this? I would have thought maybe the reason for the odds is if the max bets are low, and all the sharp bettors are waiting for the max to rise.

Quote

06-23-2017 , 04:15 AM

#337

DTD

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,326

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

We all would lose money for choosing to tie up our money in dollar denominated investments instead of bitcoin obviously

I've no idea of this bitcoin works (it's like holding gold in effect)? But, when it comes to currency risk surely the average gain or loss is zero - if you knew that currency would move one way you could make money with derivatives, right?

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06-23-2017 , 04:17 AM

#338

DTD

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,326

D White's comment on the odds. I bet he's really thinking "WTF at those odds, I need to get me some of that".

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06-23-2017 , 04:18 AM

#339

DTD

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,326

I can't recall anything about this Berto fight - but surely Conor has less chance than he did, even allowing for Floyd getting older.

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06-23-2017 , 04:20 AM

#340

Ra_Z_Boy

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Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 36,966

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Drogo_

I think it's more like 1/200 and that's just trying to imagine the odds of the freakiest thing happening like Floyd snapping an ankle or something at the start.

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06-23-2017 , 04:27 AM

#341

DTD

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,326

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ra_Z_Boy

I think it's more like 1/200 and that's just trying to imagine the odds of the freakiest thing happening like Floyd snapping an ankle or something at the start.

It would be so awesome if he did do an ankle or something in round 1, but something he could get through by hobbling around on one leg. We'd actually have a contest then.

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06-23-2017 , 07:31 AM

#342

JudgeHoldem

banned

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 8,197

whats really dumb about this fight, is you probably have way better fights sandwiched in that no one is talking about. recently, Ward vs Kovalev, and after, Golovkin vs Canelo.

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06-23-2017 , 07:42 AM

#343

Mr.mmmKay

Drugs are bad...

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 20,179

Quote:

Originally Posted by ballin4life

Them not taking million dollar bets isn't unique to this fight so you would always observe wrong odds a long time before an event.

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06-23-2017 , 08:32 AM

#344

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 47,046

Quote:

Originally Posted by JudgeHoldem

whats really dumb about this fight, is you probably have way better fights sandwiched in that no one is talking about. recently, Ward vs Kovalev, and after, Golovkin vs Canelo.

I'm in for everything up until I'm asked to spend money on this. On the flip side, if don't care much at all for the build up to GGG/Canelo, but am absolutely buying that fight

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06-23-2017 , 08:33 AM

#345

mavsfan4ever

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,536

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTD

If it's just about opportunity cost then that seems insane to me. The 5% is of course made up, but if you actually make more than that on average in that time frame then you're looking at returns over 25% per year. Nobody makes that, surely, outside of those who know more than they should about the market.

That said - there must be something going on for the odds to be like that. Seeing the history of the price from the date the match was made to the actual fight should be interesting. There can't be many events like this in history with the betting market so deep.

I don't thin know you understand. It's not that the sharps have a 25% return on their bets. It's that they could take 1 million and bet multiples of 1 million in the next two months. So let's say they use that 1 million to place a total of 10 million in bets over the next two months. Even if their return on investment is only 2% in that time period, that's $200,000. You can work with the numbers from there if they put down more than 10 million or have a higher rate of return.

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06-23-2017 , 08:36 AM

#346

Prawney

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 5,646

Fwiw to people asking earlier ITT about tickets

https://twitter.com/danawhite/status/878221209837555713

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06-23-2017 , 09:37 AM

#347

DTD

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,326

Quote:

Originally Posted by mavsfan4ever

Not sure you understand what I am saying - I'm not talking about return on bets I am talking about return on money. How many times you bet and re-invest doesn't matter - whatever your strategy, you have an expected gain or loss over a specific period. If that amounts to 25% over a year (so, your best estimate of what your $1 million betting fund will be in a year is $1.25 million) then that is insane. You don't expect that level of average return when investing in the highest risk equity stocks, and you don't have to work for it either in that case.

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06-23-2017 , 09:53 AM

#348

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTD

Of course professional gamblers expect higher returns from gambling than investing in stocks. If they didn't then they would just invest in stocks...

Quote

06-23-2017 , 09:55 AM

#349

eazygoing

Hand Historian

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 6,370

yawn is boxing still a thing

if it wasn't for the fake media hype, this farce would only be watched by boxers i guess.

Quote

06-23-2017 , 10:13 AM

#350

DTD

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,326

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

Of course professional gamblers expect higher returns from gambling than investing in stocks. If they didn't then they would just invest in stocks...

Well, most people would say that - even if you take on lots of risk - your best estimate return is less than 10% by investing in stocks. Getting from that to 25% is insane. Without some kind of insider knowledge I find it hard to believe that just sporting knowledge gets anywhere near 25% in expected return. If you could really achieve that they why don't lots more smart people with lots of capital do it? Beats working.

There are edges though - I know someone who managed a betting shop and left to become a professional gambler. He paid quite a bit (easily 5 figs a year) to get a TV feed with no, or minimal delay, and used that as part of the plan.

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