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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
But if the fight is fixed and Floyd is in on it then it should be 500 to 1 in the other direction. So either way it is nowhere close to the true line. Why would you think its more likely to move towards Floyd in this instance if you're a professional gambler?
the fight being fixed is a conspiracy theory by me and will not in any way impact the line. Most professional gamblers do not agree with my theory(or at least I've never heard from them about it).
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Originally Posted by TheNoodleMan
Not betting is putting your money where your mouth is? LOL, ok.
I mean, this is a bit of semantics here, but the point is....
I thought this might be the single most profitable betting opportunity of my lifetime, yet so far I have not bet on it because I think there is a X% chance that the fight is fixed and X = a big enough number that it would negate the apparent edge.
I'm certainly not saying that I have proof or any sort of certainty(that would make me want to bet on Conor) about the fight being fixed. Its totally a conspiracy theory, but it is indeed causing me to alter my bets by $10-25k.
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Right, but that's what I'm saying. We're seeing reports and stories that all speak to the crazy volume coming in on Conor, so it seems like in this event, more so than in others, we're likely to see those sharp bets get washed out easier.
It just seems like that could explain the line. Books know they're giving away Money on Floyd, but they're getting so fat off of Conor marks that they can afford that hit.
Has anyone here actually bet on Conor? Does anyone here know anybody who has bet on Conor?
I live in Vegas and hang out at poker tables a fair bit, yet I have not met a single person who has bet on Conor. This strikes me as incredibly odd considering that the claim is that there are multitudes of small bets coming in on Conor that are offsetting the huge bets made by professional gamblers on Floyd.
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Originally Posted by MediocrePlayer2.0
But it's weird .... I've talked to friends who are casual fans / general sports fans and a few said Conor is gonna knock Floyd's ass out ..... so maybe there is an insatiable appetite for public betters dropping $200 on Conor
I'm curious about your friends....I don't think I have any non-gambling friends who would hear me say "I have been a professional gambler for 10+ years and betting on Floyd is the single best bet I have ever seen by a country mile" and maintain that they are correct about wanting to bet on Conor. How exactly do these conversations go?
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Originally Posted by estefaniocurry
Conspiracy theories need better justification. For me the biggest problem with the conspiracy theories is that the legit payout is already so huge, why take the risk?
What risk? Worst case scenario, the public finds out for sure that it was fixed....and? What happens? Its not like they'll have to issue a refund.
The upside is so ridiculously enormous. I said $1,000,000,000, but honestly it could even be bigger than that. If Conor beats Floyd, he could become the most famous person on earth and start demanding $100mil+/fight going forward. If Floyd has a percentage of that, then there is clear incentive for him to fix the fight.
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Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
I just can't see Floyd trading any amount of money for a loss.
Why? What has Floyd ever said or done that makes you think he values the opinions of boxing fans over any amount of money, yet alone a huge amount?
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Originally Posted by BOIDS
couple decades ago germany and austria played in a world cup group game where if germany won by one goal then both teams qualified for the next stage, but any other result meant one of them was out. germany scored in the first 10 mins to make it 1-0 and then neither team left their own half for the remaining 80
This is fascinating(and I'm not sure would even call it "a fix" since both teams are looking out for their own best interests).
There was a somewhat similar possible scenario in NFL a few years ago whereby 2 teams were playing in week 17, and the winner would go to the playoffs but they would both miss if they tied. This meant that if the game went to OT and there was only time for one last play then if the defense tackled the offensive player it would mean their season was over(their only chance would be to try for a strip, and then the other team would be in the same position).
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Originally Posted by Ra_Z_Boy
The odds are so ******ed that it must be a fix. That's the latest angle ITT. What is more likely a giant conspiracy sports rig going on or people are just that dumb? Occam's razor. Just ask any casual fan and the answer should be clear.
The bolded isn't the actual scenario though. Its not just that people have to be dumb. Its that people have to be dumb, have money to put on a fight that won't happen for 2 months, and this has to happen often enough that it completely offsets all the money coming in from pros on the single greatest betting opportunity of their careers.
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Originally Posted by Banzai-
The thing is, a fix is possible. I don't *think* it's fixed either, but if you're going to place a wager you have to assign it some sort of probability and factor it in. Even just a 5% chance of a fix is relevant given the odds offered and "true" win probabilities assumed if no fix.
Basically it comes down to "is it likely enough to be fixed to make the odds available not worth taking." For me, it's definitely not THAT likely, and so I have a decent bet on Floyd, but the possibility is stopping me emptying the bank accounts.
yea this is kinda how I feel, and theres def a chance I end up putting some money on Floyd, but I def won't be going super huge on it.