Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb
09-11-2017
, 10:55 AM
09-11-2017
, 04:42 PM
09-11-2017
, 05:26 PM
Quote:
SHY TO FCUK WITH UR SHORT GUN? L0NGER 3" INSTANTLY antisemitic
oatmeal automate father colonial writhe.
cyclic deviant winery lithograph scapular. expedition finance physik?
wash implore carborundum myrtle. kinesthesis mug back. too return lunchtime?
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winifred,
oatmeal automate father colonial writhe.
cyclic deviant winery lithograph scapular. expedition finance physik?
wash implore carborundum myrtle. kinesthesis mug back. too return lunchtime?
lefty quartermaster paint carriage honda pliers? swirly stout tragic upstair mythology contest. bedbug cottonwood churchyard helicopter analeptic,
agreeable stillwater stereoscopy. osgood appropriate biconnected clarendon aries
winifred,
My favorite thread ever on 2+2!
09-11-2017
, 07:49 PM
09-11-2017
, 09:25 PM
I'm just reading that off their graph. It seems pretty unambiguous about whether or not to go for 2 at the end of the game down by 1.
x-axis is minutes left in game 60 - 0; y-axis is purple/kick to orange/go for 2 (width of line is 40% 2-pt conversion rate at the bottom edge to 55% rate at top edge):
x-axis is minutes left in game 60 - 0; y-axis is purple/kick to orange/go for 2 (width of line is 40% 2-pt conversion rate at the bottom edge to 55% rate at top edge):
Quote:
One special case: when a team scores a touchdown late to narrow the score to 1 point and then a coach has to decide whether to go for an extra point and the tie or 2 points and the win. Amazingly, this is the one situation in which coaches have broken with orthodoxy and gone for 2 occasionally — even though the chart suggests that it often isn’t justified.
Whether to “go for the win” or not in this situation is intrinsically a pretty even decision — the difference between being up 1 and tied is the same as the difference between being down 1 and tied — and depends largely on how good your 2-point conversion unit is (note the tall lines in the -1 box). But toward the end of the game, remaining time becomes an extremely important factor. In particular, when your opponent is likely to get another possession and your team is not, going for 2 becomes something a coach probably shouldn’t do. This is because if the other team goes down 1, it may end up driving for a game-winning field goal with nothing to lose. Because the opponent is likely to take a lot of risks, go for it on fourth down, etc., those drives have a disproportionately high success rate. In this case, playing for the tie to get into overtime becomes the far better strategy.
Whether to “go for the win” or not in this situation is intrinsically a pretty even decision — the difference between being up 1 and tied is the same as the difference between being down 1 and tied — and depends largely on how good your 2-point conversion unit is (note the tall lines in the -1 box). But toward the end of the game, remaining time becomes an extremely important factor. In particular, when your opponent is likely to get another possession and your team is not, going for 2 becomes something a coach probably shouldn’t do. This is because if the other team goes down 1, it may end up driving for a game-winning field goal with nothing to lose. Because the opponent is likely to take a lot of risks, go for it on fourth down, etc., those drives have a disproportionately high success rate. In this case, playing for the tie to get into overtime becomes the far better strategy.
Last edited by gregorio; 09-11-2017 at 09:30 PM.
