Your numbers are way wrong. And it isn't "basically nothing", it's infinitely terrible since you are starting with 0%.

QBs milk a few seconds before kneeling all the time. You guys are acting like this is some never-been-tried mad genius strategy. I FFed through the kneel down parts because I thought the game was over (until I saw it wasn't). Did Matty do no milking?

this. you are increasing your chances of losing by more than 1000x

RIVERRRRRRRMANNNNNNNN 4 king imo

A few seconds? No they don't. At least not at the NFL level. I don't watch college if that's what you're talking about.

Yes they do. They step backwards and wait for some penetration before taking a knee. It happens all the time.

Bleh, I wasn't trying to say it wouldn't be a bad decision. I was trying to say that just giving a change in WP doesn't do it justice because it is a terrible decision, and 0.01WP is really low. I think we are all on the same page about it being terrible...

Only if his boss is a complete idiot.

I don't think you can compare it to insurance because winning pretty much is all that matters. The only thing that could be change that is your ability to win games in the future. For example, if you go from a 1.0% chance of winning a game to 1.1% chance, but there's a reasonable chance of injuring your star player, don't take that chance. Or if you want to give experience to some backups that may have to play more in the future or something. Besides those types of cases, winning should be the only metric used.

Also, if losing by a smaller amount helps you out (goal differential in soccer), that's another case.

belichek would get a 90 on 1 through 100 scale going for it on 4th and 2 against the colts at their own 28 I think it was. jim harbaugh was a perfect 100 on the stupid scale . you dont trust your offense with 10 minutes to go with a first down close to the redzone cmon man.

I challenge you to find a clip of an NFL QB taking 3.0 seconds before kneeling. I think you are not considering how long 3 seconds is. In some cases QBs are being sacked in that amount of time. And that's when they're running a normal play and trying to not be sacked (evading, or looking to pass).

Yeah but the idea is that it's not low compared to 0. You can't just excuse a decision at this level because it only reduced your win probability by 1%. Especially when the decision was the "non-obvious" choice between accepting a penalty and taking the points. It's like he chose the "clever" route and it was still 1% wrong.

It's not so much that it's a huge problem, but it's just a microcosm of the coaches incompetence in general, which is the real issue in most cases. I wouldn't call the decision to accept the penalty a "tough" one. It's the obvious choice, and it happens to be the better choice. And Harbaugh failed. It wasn't the first and it won't be the last. Guy will make millions and millions of dollars.

Shockingly I doubt if there are a lot of clips of that and I'm really not in the mood to go on a wild goose chase search for it right now. I never said 3 seconds, I said a few. I was even going to write that 3 is pushing it, but I didn't expect to get into a ridiculous nitfest about it.

They have an inner circle of guys around them when they're in the V-formation. It takes a while to penetrate the O-line and that, especially when the D knows they're going to lose and isn't 100% selling out.

Can someone who actually watches the game closely please tell PHB that sometimes QBs shuffle their feet and wait as long as possible before going down when they want to milk a few extra seconds?

Agree. Some are a little more leisurely than others and don't do the turbo kneel but next to nobody is taking a few seconds.

eta - a few is 3+ obviously, 1 is 1, 2 is a couple... don't see what the argument there.

also, the ones that even take a couple count how many times there's a decent amount of extra-curricular stuff after that play. It's not common.

they do, but like phb i'm guessing it's closer to half a second or maybe a second and a half tops

Lord. So what is the word for 1 or 2 (maybe 3 every now and then)?

Not trying to nitpick you just when you say a few seconds I think most people are going to think 3+. I'm not a grammar nit but I'd say a second or two or a couple.

Also, even without that I think the main point is most guys do the turbo kneel, some do the slightly more leisurely but like a second or so max, and the few that go beyond that (and really even the guys who just do the somewhat more leisurely than turbo) some guys end up doing the lets have the oh so entertaining try to rip the other guy's helmet off football fight after it.

The Win Probability numbers greatly favor going for it in Belichek's situation.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...-vs-colts.html

64% of Sporting Events agreed with the decision.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/46...ttempt-634370/

I don't think fighting is an argument against trying to milk several (ha ha) seconds if you can do it.

It should be. I don't want my guys hurt in a game I have so locked up we're kneeling the clock. I also probably don't want to give a lot of teams locker room material or reason to cheap shot my guys for such a trivial thing. Same way I'm not gunning the ball down field with my starting qb and only blocking with five in a game I'm winning by 40 points.

It's arguable too but there's just something about dis-respecting professional athletes. It's a small fraternity and it's something you just don't want to make a habit out of. People say it's silly but most people inside the game don't and I think they probably have a good idea there. There's just no reason to rub it in a guy's face when he's going to have a chance to take a cheap shot at you in some meaningless game three years later. It makes sense to err on the side of respect especially in fairly trivial spots.

Just my opinion obviously.

As an aside, I think the offense should get to choose between loss of down and the standard delay penalty in the last couple minutes of a game. A way to auto-kneel basically.

You can't complain about people wanting to distinguish 1-2 seconds from 3-4 seconds when the distinction is significant to the discussion.

Yeah suzzer doesn't want to get nitty like me. He just wants to debate the long-standing connotation of what the word "few" means. lol. And claim he meant 2, 1, or less.

The point is, no matter how much extra time you milk when kneeling, if it's not a turbo-kneel, the D-line will get cranky and that's when unwritten rules go out the window. These guys know when a QB takes even 1/4 second longer to kneel than he should. These down linemen live and die by timing and they simply aren't going to not notice a QB milking here. And anything in the realm of 1, 2, or 3 extra seconds is opening up other things. If you want to milk 3 seconds then I think it's generally accepted that you should be running any play other than V-form.

Idiot candidate of the week:

fyp