Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sporting Events Discussion centered around sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-18-2007, 04:55 PM   #76
jgunnip
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
jgunnip's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Obviously, you're not a golfer.
Posts: 7,574
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

I can't find a working link to the original Sklansky article from the Mag but here's the discussion thread re: 4th down play calling.

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...te_id/1#import


oh and here's an academic paper with lots of math and symbols and footnotes and citations and stuff. Paper by David Romer, UC-Berkeley.

http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/drom...s/nber9024.pdf
jgunnip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 03:44 PM   #77
dkgojackets
DKGOAT
 
dkgojackets's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: #benzo
Posts: 79,784
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

FOURTH AND SIX.

DOWN BY FIVE, FIVE MINUTES TO PLAY.

ON THE OPPONENTS TWENTY.

INSTEAD OF KICKING A FIELD GOAL WITH THE ACC'S LEADING KICKER, YOU GO FOR IT AND MISS. [censored] GAILEY.
dkgojackets is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 03:50 PM   #78
THAY3R
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
THAY3R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Que?
Posts: 30,623
Re: Post here when you want to be really results oriented

Quote:
FOURTH AND SIX.

DOWN BY FIVE, FIVE MINUTES TO PLAY.

ON THE OPPONENTS TWENTY.

INSTEAD OF KICKING A FIELD GOAL WITH THE ACC'S LEADING KICKER, YOU GO FOR IT AND MISS. [censored] GAILEY.
FYS
THAY3R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 04:02 PM   #79
BobOjedaFan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BobOjedaFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Behind You!
Posts: 9,100
Re: Post here when you want to be really results oriented

Top 1st innign leadoff double vs a guy with a 6 ERA, the Mets are givign up about 100 runs per game and Willie just had Castillo sacrafice. His stupidty is astounding
BobOjedaFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 04:34 PM   #80
shemp
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
shemp's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: calmer than you are
Posts: 7,624
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Quote:
haha, standard charlie manuel. Thats like a good managerial decision from manuel even.
I posted in another managerial thread a long while back. Charlie Manuel does stuff that it's like he doesn't care or fades in and out of paying attention-- I remember thinking, "Does he *want* to get fired?"
shemp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 05:25 PM   #81
Dudd
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dudd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: pm karak w/ ffb questions
Posts: 51,359
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Michigan State just took a knee on ND's 42 with 2 seconds to go in the half. Granted their qb was pounded the play before when they tried to throw a hail mary, but way to turtle at the end of the half with good field position.
Dudd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 05:26 PM   #82
JordanIB
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 13,120
Re: Post here when you want to be really results oriented

Quote:
Top 1st innign leadoff double vs a guy with a 6 ERA, the Mets are givign up about 100 runs per game and Willie just had Castillo sacrafice. His stupidty is astounding
Someone on another board indicated that Willie has actually asked Castillo to do less of that recently, suggesting that Castillo might have been bunting on his own.
JordanIB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 08:19 PM   #83
SuperUberBob
Not interesting enough
 
SuperUberBob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Home, wherever that is
Posts: 38,602
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Joe Pa running the same draw play on every single 2nd and long vs. Michigan.
SuperUberBob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 08:50 PM   #84
mo42nyy
banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,360
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Phil Garner earlier in the year:
Houston vs Phillies top 13th or 14th
2nd and 3rd 1 out for the Phillies tied game
The pitcher is on deck (the Phillies are out of position players )
Garner doesnt intentionally walk the batter
Eventually the batter fouls off a few pitches and walks anyway at which time Jamie Moyer has to pinch it and promtly strikes out
mo42nyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 08:51 PM   #85
mo42nyy
banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,360
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Also I dont watch a ton of football- What exactly is the ev of going for 2 when you score down 14 vs kicking the extra point?
If you had a bad offense and were playing a great defense how much would this change what would be the correct play?
mo42nyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 09:22 PM   #86
NozeCandy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NozeCandy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: lol goofybawler
Posts: 29,251
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

What do you guys think about this?

I believe in the Michigan game, after Hart's TD, that they were up 7 before the PAT. Carr just kicked the extra point to go up 8. Why not go for two here? Penn State's offense hadn't been doing anything all game. You have Mike Hart who can usually get 2 yards. If you don't make it, you are still up 7 and PSU is not going for two even if they do somehow score a TD. If you make it, the game is 2 possessions and pretty much over considering how the game had gone so far. What completion percentage do you need on the 2 pt conversion to make this a good play?

Note: This was with 8:52 left in the 4th.
NozeCandy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 09:49 PM   #87
Gregatron
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Gregatron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Geaux Tigers
Posts: 7,422
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Noze,

I know I might take flack for saying Lloyd Carr did something right, but yeah, I kick the xp. I they happen to score a TD on a fluke like a return fumble or something, you MAKE them make a 2 pt conversion to tie. Basically, it forces a badly performing offense to perform.

I understand your logic though. I, like most of the other posters here, don't like going for 2 unless it's obviously necessary.
Gregatron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 09:50 PM   #88
jstnrgrs
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 2,840
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Quote:
Also I dont watch a ton of football- What exactly is the ev of going for 2 when you score down 14 vs kicking the extra point?
If you had a bad offense and were playing a great defense how much would this change what would be the correct play?
Essentially, if you go for two, you can win by:
making the 2 AND scoring another touchdown

OR

missing the two AND socring another touchdown AND making the two (after the second touchdown) AND winning in overtime.

If you don't go for two, you can win by:

scoring another touchdown AND winning in overtime.


If you do the math, it turns out that if you have a better that 38% chance of making 2, then it is +EV do go for 2 when down by 14 (8 after the touchdown). Almost any team will have a better than 38% chance to make a 2 point conversion.

This assumes a 50% chance of winning in overtime and a 100% chance of making any kicked extra points. If you change those assumptions, the chance of making 2 that would be required to make it a +EV decision will change, but will still be such that almost any team should go for 2 in this situation.
jstnrgrs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 10:17 PM   #89
mo42nyy
banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,360
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

is there any reason that the amount of 2 point conversions attmpted has dropped so drastically?
mo42nyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 11:32 PM   #90
BobOjedaFan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BobOjedaFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Behind You!
Posts: 9,100
Re: Post here when you want to be really results oriented

Quote:
Quote:
Top 1st innign leadoff double vs a guy with a 6 ERA, the Mets are givign up about 100 runs per game and Willie just had Castillo sacrafice. His stupidty is astounding
Someone on another board indicated that Willie has actually asked Castillo to do less of that recently, suggesting that Castillo might have been bunting on his own.
Then I'd suggest to Wilyl that he TELL Castillo to stop stargith sacraficing unless ordered to. I don't understand how players can ever be allowed to sacrafice bunt on their own.
BobOjedaFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 11:34 PM   #91
MyTurn2Raise
Drug Free MVP
 
MyTurn2Raise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Descalso, Jay, and the pitcher
Posts: 40,496
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Quote:
What do you guys think about this?

I believe in the Michigan game, after Hart's TD, that they were up 7 before the PAT. Carr just kicked the extra point to go up 8. Why not go for two here? Penn State's offense hadn't been doing anything all game. You have Mike Hart who can usually get 2 yards. If you don't make it, you are still up 7 and PSU is not going for two even if they do somehow score a TD. If you make it, the game is 2 possessions and pretty much over considering how the game had gone so far. What completion percentage do you need on the 2 pt conversion to make this a good play?

Note: This was with 8:52 left in the 4th.
I've wondered about this same thing many times
MyTurn2Raise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2007, 11:38 PM   #92
Rubeskies
Pooh-Bah
 
Rubeskies's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Smooth Conversion
Posts: 5,623
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Bring Al Reyes into a game with a lead against the Red Sox
Rubeskies is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2007, 07:04 PM   #93
Victor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Victor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 55,661
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

anyone watching the bengals vs seattle reight now?

bungles take the lead with 21-17 with 2:30 left. both teams have 3 timeouts. bengals go for 2?!?!?!?!?!

well, obv they miss and seattle scores.

nows theres 1min left. bengals have 3 to and are down by 3 when they could be down by 2.
Victor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2007, 07:44 PM   #94
vhawk01
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
vhawk01's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: GHoFFANMWYD
Posts: 31,865
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

With about 1:15 remaining, up 26-24, on 4th and 1, at midfield Lane Kiffin decides he will punt it away. Of course CLE then marches down the field and, hilariously, gets their FGA blocked. But come on. You have Daunte Culpepper in the backfield, and 4th and a short 1. If you get it, which you do, what, 80%+, you automatically win. When you fail, you still win a decent percentage of the time. Instead, you punt, with more than a minute left. This is very braindead, have to be giving away like .3 wins in EV here at least. Silly.
vhawk01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2007, 10:35 PM   #95
ultimatesooner
newbie
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 34
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

here is a video of the oklahoma state coach, sonic the hedgehog going off on a reporter

http://www.koco.com/video/14182021/index.html
ultimatesooner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2007, 10:44 PM   #96
FlyWf
It's the other way
 
FlyWf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: [ ] REGARD FOR HUMAN LIFE
Posts: 52,910
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

That Raiders call was at least arguable, no way it's nearly as bad as you make it sound. Giving the Browns the ball there is a terrible, terrible outcome, the extra 30 yards are a big deal when they only need a field goal to win.
FlyWf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2007, 04:19 AM   #97
youtalkfunny
dumbest smart person his mom knows
 
youtalkfunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: I can't believe it, either!
Posts: 20,269
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Quote:
here is a video of the oklahoma state coach, sonic the hedgehog going off on a reporter

http://www.koco.com/video/14182021/index.html
Everyone who hasn't clicked this link yet, stop what you're doing RIGHT NOW and watch it. It's incredible, and I can't wait to learn the story behind it.

But I have no idea why it's in this thread.

EDIT: The articles I've found about it are critical of the coach, not of the reporter. Sportswriters are calling the coach sexist, irrational, and embarrassing to the school and the conference.

Am I nuts? Or are sportswriters just defending one of their own? Does this topic deserve its own thread?
youtalkfunny is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2007, 11:27 AM   #98
Zach Belden
adept
 
Zach Belden's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: philly
Posts: 886
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

take hamels out after only 75 pitches only to blow the lead with one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball: Antonio Alfonseca.

Also, I know hamels is coming off the DL but he said in the postgame interview that nobody put 75-80 pitches on him for that night and he felt he had at least another 15 pitches in him.
Zach Belden is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2007, 06:51 PM   #99
ultimatesooner
newbie
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 34
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

Quote:
Quote:
here is a video of the oklahoma state coach, sonic the hedgehog going off on a reporter

http://www.koco.com/video/14182021/index.html
Everyone who hasn't clicked this link yet, stop what you're doing RIGHT NOW and watch it. It's incredible, and I can't wait to learn the story behind it.

But I have no idea why it's in this thread.

EDIT: The articles I've found about it are critical of the coach, not of the reporter. Sportswriters are calling the coach sexist, irrational, and embarrassing to the school and the conference.

Am I nuts? Or are sportswriters just defending one of their own? Does this topic deserve its own thread?
his rant was in response to this article, which was a terrible article to start with but his reaction made it even better



the article that started it all
ultimatesooner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2007, 08:38 AM   #100
jgunnip
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
jgunnip's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Obviously, you're not a golfer.
Posts: 7,574
Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

US Women's soccer coach switching goalies for the semi-final is working out well...
jgunnip is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:36 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.33 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online