I can't find a working link to the original Sklansky article from the Mag but here's the discussion thread re: 4th down play calling.

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...te_id/1#import


oh and here's an academic paper with lots of math and symbols and footnotes and citations and stuff. Paper by David Romer, UC-Berkeley.

http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/drom...s/nber9024.pdf

FOURTH AND SIX.

DOWN BY FIVE, FIVE MINUTES TO PLAY.

ON THE OPPONENTS TWENTY.

INSTEAD OF KICKING A FIELD GOAL WITH THE ACC'S LEADING KICKER, YOU GO FOR IT AND MISS. [censored] GAILEY.

FYS

Top 1st innign leadoff double vs a guy with a 6 ERA, the Mets are givign up about 100 runs per game and Willie just had Castillo sacrafice. His stupidty is astounding

I posted in another managerial thread a long while back. Charlie Manuel does stuff that it's like he doesn't care or fades in and out of paying attention-- I remember thinking, "Does he *want* to get fired?"

Michigan State just took a knee on ND's 42 with 2 seconds to go in the half. Granted their qb was pounded the play before when they tried to throw a hail mary, but way to turtle at the end of the half with good field position.

Someone on another board indicated that Willie has actually asked Castillo to do less of that recently, suggesting that Castillo might have been bunting on his own.

Joe Pa running the same draw play on every single 2nd and long vs. Michigan.

Phil Garner earlier in the year:
Houston vs Phillies top 13th or 14th
2nd and 3rd 1 out for the Phillies tied game
The pitcher is on deck (the Phillies are out of position players )
Garner doesnt intentionally walk the batter
Eventually the batter fouls off a few pitches and walks anyway at which time Jamie Moyer has to pinch it and promtly strikes out

Also I dont watch a ton of football- What exactly is the ev of going for 2 when you score down 14 vs kicking the extra point?
If you had a bad offense and were playing a great defense how much would this change what would be the correct play?

What do you guys think about this?

I believe in the Michigan game, after Hart's TD, that they were up 7 before the PAT. Carr just kicked the extra point to go up 8. Why not go for two here? Penn State's offense hadn't been doing anything all game. You have Mike Hart who can usually get 2 yards. If you don't make it, you are still up 7 and PSU is not going for two even if they do somehow score a TD. If you make it, the game is 2 possessions and pretty much over considering how the game had gone so far. What completion percentage do you need on the 2 pt conversion to make this a good play?

Note: This was with 8:52 left in the 4th.

Noze,

I know I might take flack for saying Lloyd Carr did something right, but yeah, I kick the xp. I they happen to score a TD on a fluke like a return fumble or something, you MAKE them make a 2 pt conversion to tie. Basically, it forces a badly performing offense to perform.

I understand your logic though. I, like most of the other posters here, don't like going for 2 unless it's obviously necessary.

Essentially, if you go for two, you can win by:
making the 2 AND scoring another touchdown

OR

missing the two AND socring another touchdown AND making the two (after the second touchdown) AND winning in overtime.

If you don't go for two, you can win by:

scoring another touchdown AND winning in overtime.


If you do the math, it turns out that if you have a better that 38% chance of making 2, then it is +EV do go for 2 when down by 14 (8 after the touchdown). Almost any team will have a better than 38% chance to make a 2 point conversion.

This assumes a 50% chance of winning in overtime and a 100% chance of making any kicked extra points. If you change those assumptions, the chance of making 2 that would be required to make it a +EV decision will change, but will still be such that almost any team should go for 2 in this situation.

is there any reason that the amount of 2 point conversions attmpted has dropped so drastically?

Then I'd suggest to Wilyl that he TELL Castillo to stop stargith sacraficing unless ordered to. I don't understand how players can ever be allowed to sacrafice bunt on their own.

I've wondered about this same thing many times

Bring Al Reyes into a game with a lead against the Red Sox

anyone watching the bengals vs seattle reight now?

bungles take the lead with 21-17 with 2:30 left. both teams have 3 timeouts. bengals go for 2?!?!?!?!?!

well, obv they miss and seattle scores.

nows theres 1min left. bengals have 3 to and are down by 3 when they could be down by 2.

With about 1:15 remaining, up 26-24, on 4th and 1, at midfield Lane Kiffin decides he will punt it away. Of course CLE then marches down the field and, hilariously, gets their FGA blocked. But come on. You have Daunte Culpepper in the backfield, and 4th and a short 1. If you get it, which you do, what, 80%+, you automatically win. When you fail, you still win a decent percentage of the time. Instead, you punt, with more than a minute left. This is very braindead, have to be giving away like .3 wins in EV here at least. Silly.

here is a video of the oklahoma state coach, sonic the hedgehog going off on a reporter

http://www.koco.com/video/14182021/index.html

That Raiders call was at least arguable, no way it's nearly as bad as you make it sound. Giving the Browns the ball there is a terrible, terrible outcome, the extra 30 yards are a big deal when they only need a field goal to win.

Everyone who hasn't clicked this link yet, stop what you're doing RIGHT NOW and watch it. It's incredible, and I can't wait to learn the story behind it.

But I have no idea why it's in this thread.

EDIT: The articles I've found about it are critical of the coach, not of the reporter. Sportswriters are calling the coach sexist, irrational, and embarrassing to the school and the conference.

Am I nuts? Or are sportswriters just defending one of their own? Does this topic deserve its own thread?

take hamels out after only 75 pitches only to blow the lead with one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball: Antonio Alfonseca.

Also, I know hamels is coming off the DL but he said in the postgame interview that nobody put 75-80 pitches on him for that night and he felt he had at least another 15 pitches in him.

his rant was in response to this article, which was a terrible article to start with but his reaction made it even better



the article that started it all

US Women's soccer coach switching goalies for the semi-final is working out well...