Again

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This whole situation has been driving me crazy since last weekend. I would love to get some of these guys, even John Fox, and ask them the following:

Ok, hypothetical situation. Goodell gets together with the rules committee, decides football is too boring, and radically changes the rules of football. Now, the games only last :31. You always start with the ball on your own 20. First team to score wins. If neither team scores, the game is decided by a coinflip.

So...how many of your 16 games are you punting or taking a knee in this new-NFL Fox? You ****ing moron.

Bill Belichick wants this thread named after him.

Twice he's punted when he shouldn't have, twice the Gods have punished him by giving the Ravens a TD.

fyp

Instead of running up the middle on 2nd and 1 how about taking a knee instead?

I was so ready with the post for when the Pats scored a TD down 28-13 with 2 minutes to go and BB inevitably decided to go for one.

Homie you really seem obsessed with this intentional safety thing. You're wrong.

Ninere had a non-zero chance to run out the entire clock. If they didn't run it out, the only way they lose is to a Hail Mary (assuming they free kick it oob). The way they did it they risk fumbling 3x and having the punt blocked - all of which would give them excellent field position and more than 1 play to get the TD.

Yes a 1st down wins the game, but they can only run the ball given the game clock and timeout situation. Incomplete pass is the most likely event to occur that would put a dent in their win equity. It comes down roughly to risk of fumbling / punt block vs Atlanta completely a Hail Mary. I think fumbling is more likely and they could've possibly runoff the rest of the clock

even if you're right it affects win probability by like 0.5% at most. this is the post here when coaches do something obviously stupid thread not the point out every decision made by coaches that may have possibly been ever so slightly -ev thread.

Belichick starting a glorified system QB instead of freeing Mallett

Agreed.

At best, he has a somewhat plausible argument.

Um, people go berserk ITT when a coach punts down 21 pts on 4th and 5 from midfield with 6:30 left. I guess all of them shouldn't be posting here either?

Posting about 0.5% EV differences when the strategy is clearly dominated by a superior one is exactly what this thread is for.

Going from 4 to 2 is like, the point differential where a safety is among the most damaging.

Time runs on a regular punt from the snap, but not until the ball is caught on the free kick. You'd be giving the Falcons the ball on like the 30 with 10-15 seconds left. One completion+unnecessary roughness penalty from field goal range.

Surprised no one mentioned BB failing to call an insta-timeout with :13 left in the first half, and letting Brady run around like a decapitated chicken trying to spike it instead, guaranteeing zero shots at the end zone.

Run-run-run-punt is the superior option though. Running a regular play takes more time off the clock than kneeling(plus there was the chance of getting a first down). Punting takes more time than free kicking after a safety.

Not to mention the yardage you get from running helps give your punter a little more breathing room, and takes the Hail Mary out of play. There's plenty of advantage to running there.

I thought by the time they did get to 4th down with run run run that the intentional safety was def superior.

that's not doing something obviously stupid. it's failing to realize the situation and act on it in a split second. very different imo.

In this instance Brady not throwing it away and instead running for a 2 yard gain is so much worse.

I think the EV of calling the insta-timeout isn't too much better than just settling for the FG attempt. There are a lot of ways they can get 0 points if they **** up with 13 seconds left and no timeouts.

That end of half was obviously stupid.

RIP elite head coach Bill Belichick

Yup Brady screwed up, BB screwed up, and on the prior play Hernandez should have gotten out of bounds to preserve a timeout instead of turning back in for 2 extra yards when it was clear he had no shot at the endzone.

Agreed. And I think it's fine if Belichick takes the TO immediately, thinks about things, decides he doesn't want to risk the sack etc., and just kicks the FG anyway. But he has to know that trying to spike there is pure aids and leaves them zero options.

Can we stop the "that isn't obviously stupid" nittery? This has become the defacto discuss all coaching decision threads.