CFL DIVISION FINAL PICKS
Sunday @ 1:00 pm Eastern - East Final
Montreal (10-9) @ Hamilton (9-9)
The line here is Hamilton -3.5.
The East Final is a matchup we saw two weeks ago - Hamilton clinched top spot in the East after a 29-15 home win over Montreal. The teams split their two regular season meetings, each winning at home.
Hamilton went 7-2 at home this year, including a 5-0 mark once they got to Tim Horton's Field. The game wraps up a big weekend of football in Hamilton, as McMaster advanced to the Vanier Cup earlier today; they'll meet Danny Maciocia's Montreal squad next Saturday at Molson Stadium.
The Als have some momentum, coming off of their 50-17 win last week. Though they struggled offensively in their last visit to Steeltown, the big play duo of S.J. Green and Duron Carter have shown they can break a big play at any time.
The second-half of the season in the East reminded of Musical Chairs. Each week, it seemed like there was a new division leader, and a new team in 3rd set to miss the postseason. When the music stopped, Hamilton had their seat in 1st place. Last year's Grey Cup losers are clearly a different team at THF, led now by Zach Collaros instead of Henry Burris.
The key matchup here will be Jonathan Crompton versus the Hamilton D. Two weeks ago, Crompton did manage 284 passing yards, but his completion % was just over 50%. Also in that game, the Hamilton D for 8 Montreal punts, and scored a TD on a fumble recovery.
The Tiger-Cats won this game last year, and since they are 5-0 at their new stadium, I think they'll win it again. They have the experience, the defense, and a sold-out Tim Horton's Field will be behind them 100%. I think the Tiger-Cats will make it 2-for-2 for Hamilton football this weekend, and make it 2 straight East Division Championships.
THE PICK: Take Hamilton minus the points.
Sunday @ 4:30 pm Eastern - West Final
Edmonton (13-6) @ Calgary (15-3)
The line here is Calgary -7.5.
Sunday wraps up with yet another Battle of Alberta. Of Edmonton's 6 losses, half of them came against Calgary, as the Stamps went 3-for-3 in the team's regular season matchups. The Stamps won the lone matchup in Calgary by a 28-13 scoreline on September 1st.
Past history is not on the Stamps' side. Since winning the 2008 Grey Cup, Calgary has hosted the West Final in both 2010 and 2013. They lost both times (both to Saskatchewan). Prior to 2008, Calgary last won the West Final at home in 1998.
Last week, in holding the Riders to 10 points, Edmonton's D registered 7 sacks, 5 interceptions, and 1 fumble recovery. With gametime temperature expected around 0 C, expect another tight, low-scoring, defensive battle.
Things have brightened on Calgary's injury front. Bo Levi Mitchell is set to start at QB, and RB Jon Cornish has recovered from missing the regular season finale. For Edmonton, Mike Reilly gets the nod ahead of Matt Nichols under centre.
It's tough to beat the same team 3 times in one year, and it's even tougher to do it 4 times. John Hufnagel got the better of Chris Jones during the year, but I like what Edmonton's D did last week to Kerry Joseph. It's all about experience this time of year, and with Bo Levi Mitchell making his first career playoff start, we could see the Esks' D creating multiple turnovers again.
Calgary's recent postseason history isn't the best, and they've shown they can lose this game at home. They might yet win the game, but Edmonton will keep it close, as these two evenly matched teams battle to play in the Grey Cup next Sunday.
THE PICK: Take Edmonton plus the points.
LAST WEEK: 2-0 (against the spread)
2014 PLAYOFFS: 2-0 (against the spread)
"GOOD LUCK AND GOOD GAMBLING"