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Old 03-17-2017, 02:24 PM   #1
waterwolves
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2017 NFL Draft Discussion

I didn't see a thread up on the Draft yet so I thought I would put one up. Going to be interesting to see where all the great DB and S in this draft end up. I'm kind of disappointed in the supposed 1st round skill positions. There's a couple nice players but it's not nearly as deep as it was supposed to be.


Anyway a 15 min quick mock/breakdown by Charley Casserly


1-Cleveland Browns
2-San Francisco 49ers
3-Chicago Bears
4-Jacksonville Jaguars
5-Tennessee Titans
6-New York Jets
7-Los Angeles Chargers
8-Carolina Panthers
9-Cincinnati Bengals
10-Buffalo Bills
11-New Orleans Saints
12-Cleveland Browns
13-Arizona Cardinals
14-Philadelphia Eagles
15-Indianapolis Colts
16-Baltimore Ravens
17-Washington Redskin
18-Tennessee Titans
19-Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20-Denver Broncos21Detroit Lions
22-Miami Dolphins
23-New York Giants
24-Oakland Raiders
25-Houston Texans
26-Seattle Seahawks
27-Kansas City Chiefs
28-Dallas Cowboys
29-Green Bay Packers
30-Pittsburgh Steelers
31-Atlanta Falcons
32-New Orleans Saints

One of the more underrated players in this draft for me is Obi Melifonwu. Lots a mocks have him going in the late first early second round. He should be a top 10-15 pick.

6'4
224
4.40
44 inch vert
141 inch broad jump
17 bench reps

He's is going to make a GM look like a genius. The video shows him closing the gap quickly and making a lot of takles in the beginning but the range and coverage skills at that size later in the video is what jumps out more to me.


He doesn't hit like Kam but he's a good tackler and he has much better coverage skills and range than Kam. Technique needs coaching but he showed at the senior bowl that he can be a CB in the NFL. CB is a more valuable position than S but he can play anywhere back there. Just think you're wasting him at S but meh.......





No way he slips to the 2nd round and I could see him going as high as Cleveland at 12. Washington shouldn't pass on him at 17 but they're dumb. Would be shocked if Seattle, Dallas, GB or the Saints pass on him late in the first.

Last edited by waterwolves; 03-17-2017 at 02:46 PM.
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Old 03-17-2017, 03:21 PM   #2
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Just glanced at his mockdraftable page

Those are Eric Berry #'s and he's a bigger guy. Without film watching he's a clear top 10 pick.

Agree on seattle not passing on him like ever.

Last edited by wheatrich; 03-17-2017 at 03:28 PM.
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Old 03-17-2017, 03:24 PM   #3
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Titans at 18 looks nice.
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Old 03-17-2017, 03:40 PM   #4
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich View Post
Just glanced at his mockdraftable page

Those are Eric Berry #'s and he's a bigger guy. Without film watching he's a clear top 10 pick.
He needs some coaching. Byron Jones comes to mind as a comp but there's a big difference.

Byron Jones (PFF's 17th ranked safety last year)- 6'1 and 198 pounds

Obi Melifonwu - 6'4 and 225 pounds

Basically he's a bigger version athletically of Jones. If Obi was 25 pounds lighter he'd jump 50 inches and might run a sub 4.3

Same range. Bigger better tackler.

He'll go higher than all the mocks have him right now watch.
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Old 03-17-2017, 04:37 PM   #5
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

never forget

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Old 03-17-2017, 07:06 PM   #6
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Titans trade their first first for more picks most likely. They need depth still. Either way they crushed the trade with the Rams last year.
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Old 03-17-2017, 07:09 PM   #7
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

I don't think the titans need much.

Wr and secondary is about it.
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Old 03-17-2017, 07:10 PM   #8
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Obi should go late first 20-25 and that's were he belongs imo.
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Old 03-17-2017, 07:36 PM   #9
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Where does the smart money here think Deshaun Watson will land?
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Old 03-17-2017, 07:44 PM   #10
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Qb is such a mess in this draft.

I think common consensus is that Mitchelol is #1 qb.

He probably goes top 10.

Watson goes from 10-15 imo.

Depends how thirsty the Jets, niners, bears are for qbs and if NO is thinking about life after Brees or Palmer with az.
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:38 PM   #11
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

I'm hearing Watson's ball was clocked at 49 mph at the combine. That's terrible if true. I understand that's not everything but if that's true it's so bad it's going to make it hard for him to succeed at the NFL level.
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:50 PM   #12
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by waterwolves View Post
I'm hearing Watson's ball was clocked at 49 mph at the combine. That's terrible if true. I understand that's not everything but if that's true it's so bad it's going to make it hard for him to succeed at the NFL level.
What's a typical QB#?

Last edited by Heroball; 03-17-2017 at 08:50 PM. Reason: Mph
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:03 PM   #13
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heroball View Post
What's a typical QB#?
53-55.......it's not a huge deal if you're close but 49 mph is bad imo.....

Aaron Rodgers - 60 mph
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:19 PM   #14
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

In to subscribe etc.

I looked into the velocity thing and there's not really much data to support it. So many top QB prospects didn't throw at the Combine. It seems like another bit of "conventional wisdom" nobody actually knows whether it's meaningful.

Also, I'm here for Patrick Mahomes, four safeties in round one, and an incredibly disappointing edge rusher class.
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:28 PM   #15
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

hoping for fournette at 8
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:44 PM   #16
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

http://rotoviz.com/2016/04/does-ball...s/?hvid=3XXMPT

Some numbers on QB's and ball velocity
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:48 PM   #17
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Maybe, I wouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville takes him at 4 at this point. They seem to have loaded up at every other position that might be worth a high pick

(re: Fournette)
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:53 PM   #18
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

This class is getting more disappointing the closer we get. Most of the top prospects have huge concerns.

Garrett- ldo obv number 1
Jamal adams: safest pick in draft imo.
Hooker: big surgery
Allen: arthritic shoulders that's degenerative? Does he make it through 2 nfl contracts?
Fournette: injury concerns and only a 2 down back
Cook: WOAT combine performance ever maybe. Off field redflags as well
Thomas: great athlete that takes plays off. No natural position?
Lattimore: 1 year wonder and injury concerns
Mike williams: gets no separation. His ceiling is like the 15-20th best wr
Ross: torn meniscus, acls,etc. Big question if he can fight through press coverage.
Davis: injury and small school scares
Barnett: not a great athlete but great production

And we all know about the qbs. The more I learn about the top end of this draft the less excited I get.

Literally the best tackle prospect has more than half the nfl front offices worried if he even wants to play football. Such a ****ty draft for top 20 picks.

I'm getting more and more convinced that Reddick is a top 10 pick.
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Old 03-17-2017, 10:20 PM   #19
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by waterwolves View Post
http://rotoviz.com/2016/04/does-ball...s/?hvid=3XXMPT

Some numbers on QB's and ball velocity
Yeah, I've seen the Allbright numbers. There's a lot that isn't there, though. Notice how many top QBs are missing, because they didn't throw. And given how often even first-round QBs fail (let alone QBs from later rounds), how much of this is just noise from one or two outlier mid-round QBs who became starters?

Also, this article considers Josh Freeman, Austin Davis, and Nick Foles "hits," which, lol. "Half a season of good play" as your metric is just adding more variance to the equation.

I'm not really sure these numbers are worth much in terms of practical arm strength / ball delivery. Jared Goff gets 58 MPH? Watching his Rams tape it looks like he has no arm and bad footwork to boot.

FWIW, Allbright says he watched Watson's film frame by frame and clocked his velocity at 53 MPH. I'm not as concerned about velocity if the guy knows his arm strength and isn't trying to make passes he can't make. Watson's interceptions this year were a little concerning but all in all I think he's got enough physical talent and he definitely has the right mental makeup and ability for position.
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Old 03-17-2017, 10:30 PM   #20
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fonkey123 View Post
This class is getting more disappointing the closer we get. Most of the top prospects have huge concerns.

Garrett- ldo obv number 1
Jamal adams: safest pick in draft imo.
Hooker: big surgery
Allen: arthritic shoulders that's degenerative? Does he make it through 2 nfl contracts?
Fournette: injury concerns and only a 2 down back
Cook: WOAT combine performance ever maybe. Off field redflags as well
Thomas: great athlete that takes plays off. No natural position?
Lattimore: 1 year wonder and injury concerns
Mike williams: gets no separation. His ceiling is like the 15-20th best wr
Ross: torn meniscus, acls,etc. Big question if he can fight through press coverage.
Davis: injury and small school scares
Barnett: not a great athlete but great production

And we all know about the qbs. The more I learn about the top end of this draft the less excited I get.

Literally the best tackle prospect has more than half the nfl front offices worried if he even wants to play football. Such a ****ty draft for top 20 picks.

I'm getting more and more convinced that Reddick is a top 10 pick.
Something wild could happen. Reddick is a major athlete so I wouldn't be surprised to see him surge. I still like a lot of guys in this class-- I think you're wrong about Williams; he's elite at winning contested catches which basically makes him the not-lazy Alshon Jeffery.

What's most disappointing for me is how many of the edge rushers I thought would be great tested like ass. Tim Williams and Charles Harris were the biggest letdowns. There might still be hope for Carl Lawson and Derek Barnett. And believe it or not, T.J. Watt was one of the best testers from this class (although not a superfreak like his brother).
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Old 03-17-2017, 11:28 PM   #21
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Just revised my top 100 board and published it

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...30&single=true
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Old 03-18-2017, 12:18 AM   #22
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

wow you have OJ Howard way higher than I'd expect

was hoping he might fall to Miami
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Old 03-18-2017, 12:43 AM   #23
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

I think the mike williams bashing is a bit from treadwell being god awful. I got that one massively wrong. People hated alshon/brandon marshall types too coming out in the draft too (neither were first rounders, hell jets drafted stephen hill before alshon jeffrey if I recall correctly) so *shrugs*. We still haven't hit on those types that are great vs busts yet.

I guess people don't like Watson b/c he's not a great accurate guy but he's the best in the class in right now terms and I don't think it's close so *shrugs*.

Yes, it's important for a QB not to have a total noodle arm. There wasn't anything else in that data other than don't draft a total noodle arm. Like, duh?

Oh look where Mike Glennon is. Almost the worst. God damnit.

Last edited by wheatrich; 03-18-2017 at 12:52 AM.
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Old 03-18-2017, 12:54 AM   #24
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Did people think Treadwell wouldn't suck as a pro?

He's got less straight line speed than Mike Tolbert.
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Old 03-18-2017, 01:00 AM   #25
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Mike Williams is no Alshon Jeffrey. Jeffrey had a picture circulating that made him look fat. He dropped because of that pic. He's elite at winning at the catch point but he's and elite athlete too.
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