Background: Roughly 6 big bets effective stack size. Mike Wattel is on my left is one of the two table chip leaders. Our game style and play is pretty similar, he has solid ABC fundamentals in limit games and can get creative when the opportunity arrises. One thing I have noticed about Mike over the maybe 6 hours of time I have logged with him, he tends to move fast when the decisions are ABC. SB is Moses Silverman, he has around 3.5 big bets left, I dont know much about him other than he and the BB (John Racener) might play a lot in Florida, they have a very unique dynamic, Moses appears to be concerned at times how he appears in John's eyes.

Preflop decision question. I pause 10 seconds, then open in the CO w/ A358. Mike insta-3Bets. Moses in the SB thinks for what fels like a long time, seemingly very stressed, then 4 bets. BB folds. Mike looks happy....

I am maybe 8-10 spots from the money. Call or fold?

Ranges - I think Mike generally has an A2 + 1 connected, A2 + 2 connected, A2 + 2 other working cards like KQ or JJ hand, or AAxx. My feeling is that this is the only parts of Mike's ranges that he will insta-3ball with. The range I place Moses on is A3+ working, or KKxx... I felt that these were the primary hand holdings he would be pained to take action with. if you disagree with these ranges, feel free to share and explain why.

i'd give them both a top 15% range:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
As3s5h8d	29.13%	85,272	165,570	21,143	82,532	73,201
15%	35.44%	129,066	198,849	27,410	57,544	71,762
15%	35.43%	129,316	198,495	27,234	58,048	71,640

you have a better than average hand for a CO open. not raise/folding a better hand than average preflop in limit.

Using my ranges I calculated 29% equity as well, using that alone it is a call - but this is too simplistic of an answer, dig deeper... the equity in the hand is not the real issue, it is the table dynamic and the ICM implications of my decisions.

1) Mike insta-fired and now looks happy after Moses' 4Bet. I would think that least greater than 50% of the time he will 5bet.
2) If Mike 5 bets, then Moses is probably going to get it in on almost any flop. I will never be able to check to Mike, I may see more ramming and jamming postflop
3) This is a tournament, not a cash game. I am short stacked, but have enough chips to play a full hand and almost double up.

- TT

I'd like to know how many chips you have, how many you started the hand with, and how many chips your opponents have.

But on the basis of what you've written thus far, I'd fold.

I have no idea what ranges your opponents have. If you have their ranges right, I think you should fold.

Buzz

I have roughly 6 big bets when I started the hand (I said effective above because the pf raise is not in question, only the call is) . Mike has the table covered. Moses you already know from above is short.

- TT

In that case you still have roughly five big bets left.

It looks bleak.

I understand your dilemma. You may not get a starting hand as good as this one before the blinds reach you again. I'm not sure from reading your post how many more hands that will be.

You have to make a move pretty soon and everybody knows it. You tried to make a move here but Mike and Moses jumped on it, both perhaps realizing the dilemma you'd face.

Tough decision. I'd hate myself if I folded and then the flop had two or three spades or a deuce with another low card or two but no ace or trey. But that's not likely.

Hero's hand lacks high card strength. The 8 is not good.

I'd still fold. Too much action.

Buzz

Your hand is too good to fold. If you are concerned about the bubble implications, don't open the hand or limp it instead of raising it.

i'm new to this forum. does abarber ever recommend a fold?

Rarely, but in my defense, it's rarely correct.

as that guy said above...once u open u need to see the flop and probably go with it. otherwise open fold.

open limping not an option, it is an invitation to be exploited. The players in this game are too observant to allow me to do that, my hand range would be turned over for all to see. Hand strength /initiative ratio is too good vs 3 remaining opponents to consider folding pre. The open raise is not debatable vs these specific opponents, it was the correct decision, I am not dealing with some randoms - these are very creative players. The only thing questionable is my fold when facing a 4 bet.

PS: without a doubt, this was one of the two toughest tables at that time in the room. Racener was the closest thing we had to a fish.

PPS: Sup Clayton!

...and raise/folding this hand from the CO isn't...

I don't know. Since the opening poster, TT, wrote "the pf raise is not in question," I didn't address the issue, but I'm glad Barber did. I think it's an excellent point this time.

Basically we are left trying to solve the mess the pf raise created by a short stack player who can't really want to go all-in before the flop. (Or if he does, there's no problem because Hero can get all-in on this deal if he so desires).

I hate like the dickens raising pf and then folding to the resultant action. I think the action is more related to both Mike and Moses reacting to TT than raising on the basis of the cards they hold. (But of course they probably have cards to justify the raises). However we don't know how TT has reacted to similar action in the past, maybe in other tournaments with these guys, maybe not even Omaha-8 tournaments, maybe shortly before the bubble... and that information may be crucial to the solution of this dilemma.

Makes it really difficult to decide how to react. Very awkward.

Folding here goes against my grain too, but I don't think TT's hand is quite good enough to continue. Change the eight to a king or ace and maybe change the five to a four or deuce and I'd take my chances.

Buzz

Given the unique dynamic, reads, and bubble/ICM considerations I think raise fold pre is correct.

While calling might be +cEV (and if it is it's very, very marginal), it's almost certainly -$EV as to realize hero's equity we would essentially need to get to the river and commit most of our chips (esp since hero is easily squeezed and OOP vs big stack) vs hands that likely have us in bad shape (AA, AB, BB and/or A2).

5BB is still plenty of play after folding and hero will almost certainly find a better spot to commit his chips.

I disagree, but you could be right. I felt both players were thinking about the values of their own hands primarily. The speed of Mike's actions and Moses's commitment raise tells otherwise.

Historically Mike has never seen me raise-fold any hand, not even in NL or Pot Limit (yet). This was the first time I ever open-folded. Moses may not know who I am, but I think he was at the table when John Racener and JDags commented how that it was the toughest table in the room - and I think they may have been right. The only tougher table possible was with Vincent Van der Flut (spelling?) and Vanessa Selbst - a bunch of hard core mix games grinders there + Vanessa's tournament savvy made up a really tough table. Therefore Moses probably assumes I am very good - he hasn't seen me make a mistake yet, so that is likely.

The speed of Mike's raise tells me his 3bet was for pure value or to isolate with value, not for exploitation. It was instant. Pretty sure he would have done that if we were the two chip leaders as well, my stack was not a factor - hence I was not exploited by a 3Bet (and later by the 4Bet). Folding correctly, if a fold was correct, should not be considered exploitation.