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WCOOP 2015 WCOOP 2015

09-27-2015 , 03:05 AM
The hand just plays much better as a raise imo. Pair of tens is sometimes good vs his continuing range and we don't know if a heart is good for us (thus it's hard to value bet). Also, after check-call flop on a low turn he can take a free card and realize his equity with hands that must fold to a c/r on the flop. Actually many of villain's bluffs have so much equity vs Hero's hand that Hero wants them out.

I think folding pre-flop is perfectly fine and I don't think check-folding flop vs that sizing is horribad (in a tournament), but check-raising is simply +cEV.

I am rather disappointed in gumaaa's contribution, or the lack of it to be more exact.
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09-27-2015 , 03:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok

I am rather disappointed in gumaaa's contribution, or the lack of it to be more exact.
why you care lol. he just say all are deluded and biast. he not capable to bring wisdom in this hand. not like really complicated.

maybe if you have donkingrange you can donk bet this flop but whatever std hand this way.
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09-27-2015 , 05:06 AM
I think you are not correctly quantifying the value of some actions in the hand, for one thing overestimating fold equity.
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09-27-2015 , 05:10 AM
People keep saying 'maybe' or that another play (folding preflop) is 'fine' so the problem then is justifying what you did being better than the other option. And being +cEV is not always the maximum EV and can be very bad in an MTT. If two plays are both profitable but one is more profitable, the less profitable play is still a mistake.
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09-27-2015 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gumaaa
I think you are not correctly quantifying the value of some actions in the hand, for one thing overestimating fold equity.
I accept this possibility. Maybe he doesn't even have a bet/fold-range with that sizing. I am not sure how I should react to that, maybe check-fold flop? I really don't think this hand plays well by calling flop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gumaaa
People keep saying 'maybe' or that another play (folding preflop) is 'fine' so the problem then is justifying what you did being better than the other option.
It's hard not to say "maybe" without any mathematical proof. I guess that is what you are saying? I do not have the skills to try to mathematically prove one play pre-flop better than another in this spot. If you do, please go ahead.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gumaaa
And being +cEV is not always the maximum EV and can be very bad in an MTT. If two plays are both profitable but one is more profitable, the less profitable play is still a mistake.
Of course, that's why I said +cEV and not +EV.

Did you have any suggestions of your own on how to play the hand?
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09-27-2015 , 05:00 PM
of course you have to gii on that flop even though you rarely have any FE with a guy potting the flop with his stack.

preflop is terrible /discussion
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09-27-2015 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by billygstar
/discussion
This sums up your analytical abilities pretty well.
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09-27-2015 , 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
This sums up your analytical abilities pretty well.
Soooo ... what was your plan when you called pre?

I understand that it's only a 2.2x raise from the button, but unless SB is insane his range should still be good and lots of the bad parts of BTN's range really screws up the flops we like (like this one). I can only assume that you think you can bluff a decent amount of the time? But which boards?
Calling a tiny raise pre. just to fold before showdown doesn't sound fun. Maybe you think it helps you that your range includes ~70% hands?

You also implied that villain is only ever flipping or crushed, meaning that you never x/r when you hit J4? I mean I doubt it's good against this size, but then the same must be true of you ... if he is convinced he has a good hand (what we are assuming from his size) then he only ever has made hands that are flipping or better draws that crush you. I guess every now and then he can go insane with worse flush draws and good backdoor lows, but does that happen enough to make up for the rest?

Also this has to be near the best flop for your hand, and you don't want to x/c? Obviously all the low cards are bad for you, but that was always true and you still called pre.

And the reasoning that you can't x/c and gii with hearts if they hit but you can x/r now with the draw when he's guaranteed to gii with all the better flush draws ... seems not reasonable.
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09-27-2015 , 11:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
Soooo ... what was your plan when you called pre?
Not sure if I understand the question. To invest 1,4 bb and either bluff or show down the best hand is the best response I can give.

Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
I understand that it's only a 2.2x raise from the button,
It's like 2,395x
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
but unless SB is insane his range should still be good and lots of the bad parts of BTN's range really screws up the flops we like (like this one). I can only assume that you think you can bluff a decent amount of the time? But which boards?
You know, people in tournaments are massively straight-forward and "simple". For example when flop gets checked through we can bluff to semi-blanks on turn with very good success rate. Board doesn't even matter much.

I don't really understand how BTN having a wide range really screws up the flops we like.

Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
Calling a tiny raise pre. just to fold before showdown doesn't sound fun. Maybe you think it helps you that your range includes ~70% hands?
Again, I don't really understand what the issue is. Yes, Hero has to c/f to certain flops as they hit villain's ranges so hard. The investment was 1,4bb so we can afford to c/f quite often and still show profit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
You also implied that villain is only ever flipping or crushed, meaning that you never x/r when you hit J4?
I believe that I would not c/r AI with bare bottom2 or top and bottom. A gutshot or good backdoors might make the difference, though. So yeah, saying that he is never ahead is an over-statement.

Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
I mean I doubt it's good against this size, but then the same must be true of you ... if he is convinced he has a good hand (what we are assuming from his size) then he only ever has made hands that are flipping or better draws that crush you. I guess every now and then he can go insane with worse flush draws and good backdoor lows, but does that happen enough to make up for the rest?
He might be convinced that his top 2 is good, but it always isn't good, so I don't think it matters at all what he thinks or guesses. What matters is how his hand is doing against my c/r-range. I guess it is doing well enough to put his tournament life on the line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
Also this has to be near the best flop for your hand, and you don't want to x/c? Obviously all the low cards are bad for you, but that was always true and you still called pre.
This is nowhere near the best flop for this hand. You arguments here are not making any sense to me. I already explained you why this hand plays much better as a raise than a call. Even billyboy agreed with that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
And the reasoning that you can't x/c and gii with hearts if they hit but you can x/r now with the draw when he's guaranteed to gii with all the better flush draws ... seems not reasonable.
Again, you just haven't understood why the hand plays much better as a raise.
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09-28-2015 , 05:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by billygstar

preflop is terrible /discussion
maybe in the soft micro toernements you play it not big deal not defending this. But if you do not defend this with this odds you definitly getting problems at beaten the higher stakes (as you do).
thanks me for the free advice.
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09-28-2015 , 06:53 AM
Eh, WCOOP plays different from typical higher stakes. In WCOOP most of the value comes from people making mistakes with weaker hands. Defending loose is a fine strategy when stacks are deep, but at a lower stack size you have to protect the chips so that you get opportunities to profit from large mistakes.

Aside, 'defending' is misleading terminology. You're not defending your money that you've already put in blind. You are calling with pot odds to try to win money that is no longer in your stack.
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09-28-2015 , 07:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gumaaa
all of you are deluded by confirmation bias and won't find any wisdom from looking any deeper.
Somehow I was expecting something more concrete after those big words in your first post. If for you looking deeper is

Quote:
Originally Posted by gumaaa
Eh, WCOOP plays different from typical higher stakes. In WCOOP most of the value comes from people making mistakes with weaker hands.
I sincerely thank you for your contribution, but don't assume that you say something that isn't completely obvious. Some players like to aim to take maximum value at the cost of variance. If you want to prove one way better than the other, go ahead.
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09-28-2015 , 09:32 AM
No, I just choose to give superficial statements and let you do the work if you want to get deeper.
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09-28-2015 , 09:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by omybike
maybe in the soft micro toernements you play it not big deal not defending this. But if you do not defend this with this odds you definitly getting problems at beaten the higher stakes (as you do).
thanks me for the free advice.
While I do agree on the odds aspect of the call, the range has to be the absolute bottom of the barrel that we would think of calling. We really need to flop well or have good reads on villains knowing we can get some folds postflop to make this profitable over the long run. Postflop absolutely standard.
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09-28-2015 , 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gumaaa

Aside, 'defending' is misleading terminology. You're not defending your money that you've already put in blind.
lol you are defending the blind you did put in. nothing misleading about that.
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09-28-2015 , 11:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
The hand just plays much better as a raise imo. Pair of tens is sometimes good vs his continuing range and we don't know if a heart is good for us (thus it's hard to value bet). Also, after check-call flop on a low turn he can take a free card and realize his equity with hands that must fold to a c/r on the flop. Actually many of villain's bluffs have so much equity vs Hero's hand that Hero wants them out.
That doesn't make sense to me - your Ts might be good against his continuance range on a flop with 2 overcards, but you're concerned he has the Q or A? If he has the Q then your Ts are no good anyway, and if he has the A then he either has AA (again beating your Ts) or better straight and flush draws.

And then you don't want to call because you're not sure if you can bet a heart on the turn, but you think c/r (where you are completely drawing dead to any low) is going to make him fold a better flush draw? Conventional wisdom is you raise to either get worse hands to call or better hands to fold. I don't think a better hand is going to fold to your raise, so that leaves hoping he had a worse hand on the flop (that he will still call with).

I don't think raising is a terrible play here - like it better than check/folding - but I'd rather call and c/f turn if necessary.
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09-28-2015 , 02:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by greybeard33
That doesn't make sense to me - your Ts might be good against his continuance range on a flop with 2 overcards, but you're concerned he has the Q or A? If he has the Q then your Ts are no good anyway, and if he has the A then he either has AA (again beating your Ts) or better straight and flush draws.
If I for some reason thought both my draw and made hand are no good, I would just c/f flop, obviously. I have no idea why you think he must have AA or better straight and flush draws. You are just making up strange assumptions for reasons that I can't comprehend.

Quote:
Originally Posted by greybeard33
And then you don't want to call because you're not sure if you can bet a heart on the turn, but you think c/r (where you are completely drawing dead to any low) is going to make him fold a better flush draw? Conventional wisdom is you raise to either get worse hands to call or better hands to fold. I don't think a better hand is going to fold to your raise, so that leaves hoping he had a worse hand on the flop (that he will still call with).

I don't think raising is a terrible play here - like it better than check/folding - but I'd rather call and c/f turn if necessary.
Nobody said he is going to fold a better flush draw, you just made it up. I still think calling the flop is simply bad (I think even folding is better). When you have a mediocre made hand with no nut draws the hand just plays very well in all-in, since you don't know exactly what cards are good for you and you are never in horribad shape. If this concept really is new for you, congrats, you just learned something.
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09-28-2015 , 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
If I for some reason thought both my draw and made hand are no good, I would just c/f flop, obviously. I have no idea why you think he must have AA or better straight and flush draws. You are just making up strange assumptions for reasons that I can't comprehend.
I think IF he has the A seems likely he has either AA, flush draw, or a wrap-type hand, which are all hands that crush your made hand. But the reason I'd make any assumption is to determine the best course of action in the hand. I think TT as a made hand on this board and that my flush draw is no good if it hits are stranger assumptions, but no I don't assume he has the A here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
Nobody said he is going to fold a better flush draw, you just made it up. I still think calling the flop is simply bad (I think even folding is better). When you have a mediocre made hand with no nut draws the hand just plays very well in all-in, since you don't know exactly what cards are good for you and you are never in horribad shape. If this concept really is new for you, congrats, you just learned something.
I think all I have learned from this thread is to never fold when you and omybike c/jam the flop.
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09-28-2015 , 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by greybeard33
I think TT as a made hand on this board and that my flush draw is no good if it hits are stranger assumptions
Sigh. You just don't get it. TT is good against his flush draws a decent amount of time. When both Hero's fd and made hand are no good, if villain has a monster like top pair + nfd, Hero still has non-heart A, T and 9.

Quote:
Originally Posted by greybeard33
I think all I have learned from this thread is to never fold when you and omybike c/jam the flop.
Yes, that is a good side effect of playing this hand in the correct manner.
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09-28-2015 , 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by omybike
maybe in the soft micro toernements you play it not big deal not defending this. But if you do not defend this with this odds you definitly getting problems at beaten the higher stakes (as you do).
thanks me for the free advice.
Another dumb comment from you..there's a shock lol.

This is a effective 32bb pot deep in a WCOOP mtt not a 1-200 bb cash game.

So arrogant yet totally clueless
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09-28-2015 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by billygstar
This is a effective 32bb pot deep in a WCOOP mtt not a 1-200 bb cash game.
Straw man much?
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09-28-2015 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
Sigh. You just don't get it. TT is good against his flush draws a decent amount of time. When both Hero's fd and made hand are no good, if villain has a monster like top pair + nfd, Hero still has non-heart A, T and 9.
I don't - what flush draw is your TT good against? The only possibility is A x xx where x are all low cards, and that's pretty unlikely when he c-bets the flop. You want to put your tournament on the line for 7 outs, go for it.
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09-28-2015 , 08:18 PM
It's silly because, as implied in my first reply, not one of you will change your mind about how to play this hand.
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09-28-2015 , 10:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by greybeard33
I don't - what flush draw is your TT good against? The only possibility is A x xx where x are all low cards, and that's pretty unlikely when he c-bets the flop. You want to put your tournament on the line for 7 outs, go for it.
Are you implying that he wouldn't c-bet a hand like nfd + bottom pair? Nfd + pocket pair? Nfd + wrap? Nfd + oesd? Top pair + weak fd? Again, these are just your assumptions. Also, "what flush draw is your TT good against" is kinda missing the point. The real point was presented by me in my last post to you. Sometimes hero has only 7 outs, so be it. Calling doesn't solve that issue you know.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gumaaa
It's silly because, as implied in my first reply, not one of you will change your mind about how to play this hand.
Do you think it's possible that the reason is not

Quote:
Originally Posted by gumaaa
all of you are deluded by confirmation bias and won't find any wisdom from looking any deeper
but the lack of any attempt of mathematical proof either way? I know that I would believe in what I say even if omybike didn't post ITT, so it's really is hard to understand why you think there is "confirmation bias". If there is any confirmation bias, it is in the opposite camp. Twice I asked you to help me to look deeper, but it seems like you are not able to.
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09-29-2015 , 02:06 AM
Not interested in doing that, but I'll throw you something anyway.

Try to imagine what happens with the same two hands (plus a third, unknown hand) on different board textures, or a different opposing hand on the same board texture, or a different opposing hand on a different board texture. Add up all of those scenarios. What's the EV? Is it even possible to calculate?

In the absence of a complete list and calculation of every possible combination, you are left with estimating value. And this is why two opposing sides can't agree, because the parameters require many assumptions that won't be the same between people with differing play styles and theories.
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