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Originally Posted by NickMPK
People advocating a fold here are looking at this in a pretty narrow-minded way.
Perhaps.
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They are thinking that, as a rule, you shouldn't draw to a runner-runner low.
That's part of it, but not all of it. I also don't like drawing to a baby flush. (If I
make a baby flush, I'll play it... but I don't generally want to be drawing for one. There could be special circumstances, but I don't see any here. Beyond that, Hero has nothing going for high.
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And this a good guideline most of the time.
Agreed.
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But this is far from a typical runner-runner low draw. Here are some factors that make it stronger than a generic runner-runner draw:
- Every low card (except a 3 obv.) gives you not just a nut low draw, but a uncounterfeitable nut low draw.
I agree Hero has as good a back-door low draw (~25%) as one can have.
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- Every low card except an 8 also gives you a straight draw for high.
Runner-runner non-nut straight draws really stink in my opinion.
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- Several low cards give you 13-out straight wraps to scoop the pot.
I'll take your word for it.
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- There is a flush draw on board, but you have two cards of this suit. At best, you can also win the high with a flush. At worst, you have blockers to the flush getting there.
No! At worst Hero makes the flush and gets his plow cleaned by a better flush.
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- The hand will be very easy to play on future streets. If the turn is any high card (or 3), fold; if it is any low card, continue for any number of bets.
True. The time to make the decision as to whether to continue with this hand is
now.
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- It is possible that someone will end up with the same low as you, and you will be quartering. But you have EVERY low draw; it is unlikely that your opponents can cover every draw, so at least some of the time, you will have the only low. Moreover, even if your opponents have some of these combinations, many will not see the turn. E.g. it is unlikely that a bare 24 will call the flop.
Agreed.
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Additionally, I ran the equity of the hand against reasonable ranges, and it looks like you have about 16% equity. Getting these odds, this is a clear call even if you know you will be facing multiple bets.
I'll take your word for the 16% equity.
Assuming everyone except Hero folds, it will probably cost Hero 5 more small bets to see the showdown. And in that case, Hero will be getting 4 to 1 full pot odds. In that case I think Hero needs 20% equity... and he doesn't have it.
If it were certain that Hero could look at the turn card for one more bet, then, considering the size of the pot, it would be worth that one more bet to see the turn. I might be wrong, but I don't think it's a certainty that nobody here is going for a check/raise.
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Now, sometimes equities are deceiving; if there are a lot of situations in which you might end up folding a hand that would end up with part of the pot, you may not be able to realize your equity.
But this is not really a concern here. You will -never- fold a hand on a later street that would have ended up winning the low.
I agree if Hero calls this bet he will not "fold a hand on a later street that would have ended up winning the low." Good point.
[quote]And the only realistic way you might fold the high is if a high spade comes and you get bet off the only flush.[quote]I don't see that happening (getting bet off the only flush).
Buzz