because you have a deceptively high equity and you likely getting >50% ROI on every chip you put in the pot on turn??

interesting ... to each his own .. can't knock it

i'm pretty curious --2 questions--
1. what is your estimate of hero's equity? (that you have characterized as deceptively high)
2. does your ROI improve or worsen when you put more chips in on the turn?
(to clarify, when you put in 1 chip on the turn we'll call your ROI on that chip R1, when you put 2 chips in the pot on the turn we'll call your ROI on those 2 chips R2, when you put 3 chips in the pot on the turn we'll call your ROI on those 3 chips R3 , are R2,R3 greater than R1,is R3 greater than R2)

thanks for indulging me

You're welcome.

I'm calling because there's enough already in the pot to justify a call.

I'm not raising because I don't think a raise will knock out a hand that would end up taking the pot away from Hero and because Hero has unfavorable fresh money odds to raise.

I use implied pot odds (compared to hand odds) to compute whether or not Hero has favorable odds to call. Hero's share of the implied pot odds is greater than the odds against Hero making a winning hand. That make a call favorable for Hero.

I use fresh money odds (compared to hand odds) to compute whether or not Hero has favorable odds to raise. [edit] I made a mistake, which I'm correcting. Sorry.
Hero's share of the fresh money odds is less than the odds against Hero making a winning hand. That makes a raise not favorable for Hero.
Hero's share of the fresh money odds is greater than the odds against Hero making a winning hand. That makes a raise favorable for Hero. [/edit]

I hope that makes it clear. If not, ask and I'll try to explain.

Buzz

1. We have the best possible made hand with one more card to come ... in a seven handed pot where 5 people are likely drawing for half of the pot... sooo what is an exact percentage or integer going to tell you that would lead you to make a more correct decision?
In other words what does it matter if we have 22% or 30% equity or 50% or 60% equity seven handed?? Do you realize that we have a positive expectation with 15% equity?? do you think we have less than 15% equity with the nuts here??

I just want you to explain your line of thinking.. I just don't get what you are hoping to prove asking me to solve our precise equity

2. Buzz explained most of it and said we get "one fresh chip for every two of our chips we put in" ... to answer your question simplistically ... your ROI cannot worsen if you raise on the same street in limit .. but it can get better if one of the six fold you may gain equity ... and your ROI is a function of your EV which is a function of your equity .. to put it simply

-----
Let me ask you something now.. what would be your logic (... not what is your opinion or style or what do you imagine.. but what would be the logic) to not raising ... and as some have suggested... folding and not continuing??

Taking the OP at his word that the raiser always has QT here, I do think we have less than 15% equity here. It's probably around 10-12%, depending on our exact suits and how likely we are to hold up on a certain dodgy cards like offsuit Q, T, or 8.

I don't think anyone was seriously suggesting folding.

in limit games implied odds are not as important ... even less so in large limit game pots... also when you have a made hand implied odds do not typically apply to you ... implied odds are used to make correct equity decisions based on the most likely actions on future streets afaik ... when you have the (absolute/relative) nuts implied odds do not apply


For example when we flop a full house with 22 on JJ2 board... we are not concerned with our implied odds.. maybe I am lost but I think we have the absolute best hand here .. so I dont get what you mean by "hero making winning hand"... our hand is already made... right?

our exact suits are

^^ additionally getting 10:1 facing check raise we only need to have 9% equity to call... 15% would actually make us on average a favorite.. not be break even EV

i'm pretty confused here. your response is pretty aggressive. and i thought my questions were pretty innocent, my intent certainly was.

i'm not/i wasn't trying to prove anything. I asked 2 questions because i was curious, which I stated. I thanked you in advance for indulging my curiousity, because I recognize you aren't obligated to reply. I wanted to know the answers to the questions, because the answers would help me to understand your posts, and perhaps help me to answer the questions i have concerning the hand. I'm really at a loss for how my questions aggravated/provoked you.

Also, i hadn't posted previously in this thread.

I obviously regret now that I did,I regret that my asking questions upset you.



to answer the question you posed(which i don't entirely understand), my logic would be conditional logic: if raising is profitable then raise. if raising is not profitable then don't raise. if calling is profitable then call, if calling is not profitable then fold. use math to determine profitability.
however, the determination of profitability requires assigning ranges to the 6 opponents, and it requires assumptions about the river action, because the hand doesn't end on the turn. frankly, i'm ill-equiped to speculate about either, its outside my experience. its remarkable to me 6 opponents going to the river on that board. i can sort of fudge ranges from between random hands and a worse case scenarios but i frankly can't divine the river action.
I'm curious about it though, curious enough to ask questions. oh well

aggressive how? upset me how?

I offended you by asking you a follow up question for the same reason? Am I not also allowed to understand your point??


I'm really curious how you got "upset/angry and aggression" from my post

Yes. If the game stopped after the turn we'd hold the winning or tying high hand.

But the game doesn't stop here. The river card is still to be dealt. If the river card pairs the board, quads are the nuts but there's a good chance a full house will scoop. If the river card is a non-pairing heart or a spade, then a flush will be the nuts.

And there are more pairing cards plus hearts plus spades than not. Odds are we won't have the nuts on the river.

Now we're dodging a heart or spade or the board pairing on the river. If that happens we won't have the nuts anymore, but we may still have the winning hand. In other words, most river cards leave us with less than the nuts. And if so, we may or may not win anyhow.

Buzz

well then, I'm glad i didn't upset you.

my expectation was that you would reply with your estimated equity. that is you would reply with a numerical value. and that you would answer the one about ROI with either a yes or a no, perhaps with some exposition.

instead you wrote, and instead of answering my question you turned around asked me what i think the equity is. i characterize that as aggressive.
is aggressive. i presented no line of thinking, i asked 2 questions. clarifications because i was curious.
inferring i was hoping to prove something i characterize as having upset you.

once again I'm pleased I didn't.

have a good night, enjoy the forum. .

that is a worst case scenario though ... right?

in other words sometimes the board pairs and backdoor flush comes in and our hand is still good right? off suit A-6 and we are still good right?

should we even bet turn when checked to us then?? what was the purpose of our bet then? Did we not anticipate the possibility of a raise?
We put lady on same hand on flop... should we check back with the nuts on J987sshh??

We all have our styles.. I get it.. I don't hand read see spots and edges and let people realize their equity cheap .. not me.. especially not in a cash game.. final table of WSOP ... checking is likely correct... 8/16 LO8 cash family pot??

1. Replying with numbers/integers/etc would not elucidate my point... the fact you ask for numbers imo means you did not understand ... so rather than go back and forth I requested you explicitly state what you wanted to know.. as I said the exact numbers in this spot are imo somewhat trivial getting 20:1/10:1/5:1 direct odds from the pot to continue
fwiw Because something doesn't meet ur expectation doesn't mean it is hostile or angry or aggressive ok?

2. I did not ask you what the equity was.. this was a yes or no question.. ex "is it raining outside?" [y/n] is not = asking you "whatz the temperature" [integer]... to further elaborate imo.. I was saying "It is raining outside" and you are asking me for the temperature ... and I replied "What does it matter what the temperature is? .. It is raining." Hope this analogy makes sense

3. You had no line of thinking.. see that idk what to say to that... it doesn't make sense to me that you read my post ... without any thought or opinion and then asked me a question about it .. logically that doesnt make any sense to me.. you must have an opinion on the hand to be in here reading and making replies imo

have a good night bro ... zero ill will from me my friend .. I am having waaaaaay too much fun learning to be upset by anyone discussing poker!!

Right. But the river card will more often than not either pair the board or be a spade or heart.

Right.

I'd bet it, planning to call a possible check/raise.

To get a better idea of what we were up against, for one thing. To charge low draws for another.

Yes, we anticipated the possibility.

No. Not in my opinion.

Agreed.

I don't understand "see spots and edges."

[edit] I made a mistake, mixed this hand up with another in my mind. Sorry. Hero should bet this turn and then make it 3 bets when check/raised. The reason is Hero has favorable fresh money odds to do so. [/edit]


Buzz

Right, but it matters slightly which card is which suit. In particular, we'd rather our Ace be a spade or heart, since it adds one more "safe" Ace to the remaining deck. Hitting a Q, T, or 8 isn't really "safe" regardless of suit. (Additionally, holding the Ace in the flush draw suit would normally reduce the probability that someone else holds a flush draw, but with so many people in the hand, I think someone is almost guaranteed to have a flush draw regardless.)

If you assume you -never- win when you don't have the nut high, and split the high with exactly one person when you do, you have right around 12% equity in the hand if you hold As or Ah, and 11% equity if you hold Ad or Ac.

In order to come close having positive equity on a raise, you need to be very optimistic about the possibility of holding up under several scenarios where you don't have the nut high.

You are right ... all the suits are not created equal here and ideally we would like to have a safe ace left in the deck.. however... how likely is it that the suited ace is still live aka not in one of the other six player's hands with this action? Dunno if that makes sense ..but I would fall out of my chair if A hits river. MAYBE A is live

I admit when I snap replied "" i went and ran sims to double check and saw there was a very slight equity benefit.. but I didn't think it had much relevance to the decision (also see deductive reasoning above) .. 11% is pretty low and PPT doesnt allow 7 handed sims... the 6 handed sims I ran ranged from 12% to 22.6% with 18-20 being the most common.. and that was reasonably conservative.. the low end was when c/r had nuts with flush and redraws to better straights (KQTx).. which is pretty worst case but not difficult to play on river imo

here's instructions for running a 7 handed sim to find avg. equity for a single player

on the PPT simulator page click "PQL", then click "PQL Runner" then copy/paste the query below into the little window(space) that opened, and then click the "Execute PQL Query" btn below the window(space).

select
avg(equity(p1,river))
from game='omaha8',
board='Js8s9h7h',
p1='AQT8:xwyz',p2='QT',p3='*',p4='*',p5='*',p6='*' , p7='*'




to examine ranges rather then random hands for players 3-7, replace the * with the range, make sure to leave the ' before and after the range.
change the range for p2 is the same, for instance substituting 'KQT:ss' for 'QT' would be the better straight redraw as well as a spade flush draw



this is how one is helpful, and not needlessly argumentative in a forum. good luck

thanks..

ironically that was a needless needle at the end but w/e ..

fwiw pointing out how to use software correctly and discussing the merits various paths on a decision tree are two diff universes... it's like a financial group is disputing a budget item and gets stuck in operating Microsoft Excel.. and you come along and help and declare "see? THAT'S how you solve a budget crisis!"

lol but yea thanks

I don't know about anyone else, but I would like to hear results. Particularly curious about what they woman and any of the other villains ended up having.