Apologies for not having the exact hand history, as this happened a couple days ago and has been bugging me.

This tournament is a turbo, and stacks get really short around the bubble. When this hand occurred, there were 12 people left (8 cashed), and blinds were 2500/5000. Average stack was about 30k, and I had 35k. I was in pretty good position to cash, since there were several really short stacks and one monster stack at my table. It's also worth mentioning that shorter stacks generally play super tight, and will often do stuff like folding their BB when they have like 3 blinds left.

For the hand in question, the cards are dealt and the big blind, who is the monster chip leader (he has about 110k), says "not aces again" in chat. My read on this guy is that he is a pretty big fish, but I don't have any other table talk examples from him.

Anyway, it folds around to me on the button with AK43. What do I do?

Results:

I haven't read the spoiler. Thanks for including it, but I don't intend to ever read the spoiler.

• I'd read the tell as indicating Villain probably doesn't have aces.
• I like your starting hand and want to play it.
• Hero has position.
• However, I don't like going up against the big stack chip leader.
• From what you have written your opponent seems unpredictable to me.

Putting all that together, I'd just limp. See what the flop is and how Villain behaves after the flop.

Buzz

Interesting, I had not considered limping, but I kind of like it. If you limp and he pots from the big blind, are you folding or going with it? I actually think it would be pretty close.

I'd hate it, but I'd shove all-in, hoping for a fold from Villain.

I'm not sure that's the best play, but you asked and that's how I'd play it.

Buzz

I'm sure you had a nice tantrum in the chatbox after.

Well there is zero fold equity, since his raise would be to 4bb and I only had 7bb to start the hand.

Hahaha, actually didn't this time. Villain did nothing I could be mad at.

hahahahaha

Isn't his maximum raise to 3.5BB? Doesn't he only put 2.5BB in the pot for his raise?

Thus when Hero shoves, doesn't Hero make it an additional 3.5BB? (Not much of a difference, but some).

As I already indicated, I don't like shoving here, but, between a rock and a hard place, that's what I'd do. (You asked).

We (you and I) ended up in the same place, assuming Villain raises. (I finally did look in your spoiler). I agree that your way of playing the hand has more fold equity than mine, but I don't think my way has zero fold equity. More importantly, from my seat here Villain is not guaranteed to raise if we limp... (though I agree it's a risk). But didn't you write "My read on this guy is that he is a pretty big fish." Is a pretty big fish guaranteed to raise here?

Not being at all familiar with your opponent, I read his tell wrong. (No guarantee I'd read his tell correctly if I knew him). However, I'd fold if I thought he had aces. Looks to me like you read his tell wrong too. (Hard to imagine your raising all-in into known aces when you could have simply folded... but you never know, I guess).

Buzz

I have actually found that when people say stuff like that, they are usually telling the truth and genuinely don't want action because it is high variance. I was pretty annoyed with myself for stubbornly refusing to fold and was hoping others would make me feel better about my decision

That makes sense.

My experience with "pretty big fish" is they try to deceive by lying.

I hope I at least did that! It would be very difficult for me to fold your hand, especially after the remark by a "pretty big fish" in the chat.

Could it be that the "pretty big fish" is not such a big fish after all?

Assuming Villain raises when I limp, and with only 6BB remaining, and with a rather nice starting hand, and against a "pretty big fish" who I'd think was probably lying about having aces, I'd hate it, but thinking it over in my seat here, far from the action, I'd still limp and then shove all-in if raised by a "pretty big fish." However, against a competent opponent, I'd fold.

Buzz

Your standard play is to open and get it in. I don't know what to make of villain's chat.

You played it fine and actually have decent equity against aa.

In terms of villains comment if villain is bad enough and the stakes are low I would say hes probably has aa quite a lot as in my experience people tend to be somewhat believable in this scenario.

Whether you choose to ignore or believe him is would have to be down to reading him as a player.

I'm sure you think I'm a donk, but anyhow, really no other option unless you have some crazy read on his chat but to pot and get it in. A monsterous hand with 7BB and only 2 left to act, and it's not like by folding you are guaranteeing you get into the money.

I would strongly advocate against limping in a spot like this ever. Lot of bad things can happen.

-He can pot it pre anyhow and now you don't get the fold equity AND have to gamble, which is what you kinda wanted to avoid to begin with.
-Flop comes down poorly and you have to fold. Now you have 30k chips whereas by potting you could have had 42.5k. Large swing there
-Flop is ok but he pots it into you and you have no idea what kind of equity you have. Like 68Q rb, and he could have something like 79T4 or a very poor Q and you fold and get exploited massively.
-You are handcuffed in that you can't bluff on some flops, as bet-folding is just a terrible option with this stack in this situation

After a little more thought, I'm pretty raising is the right play, even if I'm pretty confident he actually has aces. My hand has 41.3% equity against AA**, and I think we can discount premium AA from his range a little because he would be more inclined to want action with those. Against his actual hand I was 46.6%, so with the SB dead money it was virtually neutral EV.

The only argument that can be made for folding is that my stack was actually decent, and I can usually cash pretty easily without having to risk my whole stack. But I think with 7bb it's not enough of a lock to cash. If I had 10 or 12 bb, I think it's a lot closer to being a fold.

raise/call is super standard, no other line would make any sense

lol