6 handed plo8 200


We're both 100bb deep

28/23 80% cbet opens 3x in the HJ, folds to Hero in BB with QQT2 who calls

Flop: K 6 2

Hero checks? Villain bets 8 into 13, Hero?

Im folding here 100%, there's Not really many brds that come where you scoop. You haven't invested much so just fold and move onto the next one.

tl;dr calling pre. is marginal, calling flop is very likely giving villan a freeroll.

These are your good turn cards:

QQJ96

...and they don't give you the nuts, although you probably need to play it like they do (at least to start with). You also have one extra out, that looks like it gives you the nuts but is the easiest to be freerolled by:

A

Also:

To deal with villain 80% cbet, I'd call less pre. and x/r more post. Even though it's pretty this hand isn't great call pre. for those reasons.

Fold as fast as . you can that's flop full 27%

fold pre
as played either bet $8-$13 on the flop and fold to a raise or check fold.

Vs 80% cbet I don't see how this isn't a call. Odds are good that hero is currently ahead. And if not, he has the 2nd nut fd.

Not folding pre and not folding flop. We're playing poker here, not nut peddling.

I disagree with this summation. All Kings and 2s are good for our hand too, as combinatorially we're more likely to have the best high hand. I also like all Jacks and 9s as we pick up draws without the low coming in.

In my opinion, call flop and reassess on the turn.

I'd peel for sure here vs anyone with 80% cbet. If you don't know how to continue on this board with such hands you should not be calling pre, as you don't know how to play marginal flops HU.

would you mind explaining why you believe the odds are good hero is currently ahead? is it that you think villian's 80% c-bet represents him c-betting his 80% least favorable flop fits and checking back his 20% most favorable flop fits.



with regard to 'peeling' i'd think his c-bet% is a less important stat then those that might represent his 'tenacity', perhaps turn c-bet when flop c-bet, and/or AggF and/or WTSD%. splitting is not a particularly good result when the pot contains no dead$

Did you miss the fact that villain is only PFR 23%?

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QsQhTh2s	43.22%	185,652	330,685	2,635	0	0
23%	56.78%	266,680	266,680	2,635	287,959	0

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: K62

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QsQhTh2s	45.12%	149,514	390,180	2,165	0	0
23%	54.88%	207,655	207,655	2,165	372,744	0

...and that's against all of his 23% range, but he's being nice and checking back 20% of the time!

We are "likely" to have the best high, but we don't have the best equity. Villain has position, and if we get to showdown with hands like this a lot he'll be super likely to pot+pot any turn low cards. On the other side of that coin villain probably doesn't just continue firing all 80% of his 23% on all high turn cards.

As for the marginal turn cards you missed T's (gives us ~55%), which is much better than non- K/J/9 which all give us ~50% (again vs. a 100% of 23%, so no). 2's are weirdly good, in that we'll be ~60% vs. his range _but_ everyone has 2's in their range and almost all the time it'll be better than Q2 no low draw and a dead card so villain doesn't make many mistakes and we make all of them.

If the 6 was a 6 it'd be more interesting for added backdoor equity, but even then it hurts so much when the turn is 8 and villain pots it.

I assume villain bets nearly all of his value hands + a bunch of weak fits and checks back his worst say 18% + 2% very strong hands for balance. Or something along those lines.

Do you think 80% of villain's range have a king or better?

Illiterati, what does hero's equity need to be for the call to be breakeven?

It's not only about equity, it's more about playability which your hand doesn't have.
You hate so many turn cards and have rio concerns even when you make a flush ott.

Say if you had QQ43 then depending on villain tendencies you could have more options.
I think generally it's a bad habit bluffcatching marginal hi only hand.
We certainly do better and potentially could proceed on J62hh.

So you always call pre/flop with 33%? Sounds like an easy game.

On the upside this is a pretty good flop for 2d2cJc9h.

I'm never folding that.
QQ43 is not only much more playable...

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: K62

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QsQh4h3s	58.83%	232,031	382,710	5,648	198,136	12,291
23%	41.17%	125,871	211,642	5,648	205,650	12,291

it did occurred to me after i posted that this was likely what you meant by "currently ahead", but it was well after the time limit to edit/delete.


fwiw, i don't think 80% of villian's range contain AA,QQ, 66,22, K, 26.
i wouldn't be surprised if 80% of villian's range contained AA,or a suitedAce with a 3,4,5 or 6, or an A2 or AK that isn't rainbow suited, or KK w/decent side cards and suitedness.

I fully understand the issues re: playability and RIO, but if hero avoids all marginal spots as many here seem to suggest, then he will basically be playing his hands face up vs any thinking villain.

And the answer to my question re breakeven equity ceteris paribus is 28.5% (using #s from OP). Folding 45% equity vs villain's range is a pretty significant mistake.

Just because we're behind his range pre-flop, doesn't mean we should be folding. Our hand has playability. Unless OP believes Villain's post-flop game is much better than his own and is outwardly trying to avoid him, then I see no reason not to defend.

We may not have the best equity but we're not looking to get all in on the flop. Likewise, we are not solely calling in order to stay ahead and check down to the river. What if the turn brings counterfeit potential and villain makes a weak bet that we believe we can make steals on?

Agreed, I missed that Ts are good for us too. Agreed also that 2s can put us in more marginal spots too, but we can make decisions on that depending on the action.

6 would indeed make it a bit more interesting.

Hit the nail on the head here. I appreciate that the equity calculations you ran are important when looking at these sort of spots but there are additional considerations to take into account when playing 100bb stacked poker. Playing purely based on your equity will make you very easy to play against.

I fold pre and i am fine with that.

Playing crappy one way hands in small pots oop just to avoid "nut peddling" is not going to work (for most people) over the long term. Even to you are ahead now you might be forced to fold the best high hand on later streets so many times.

Pick better spots. For example a bigger pot in position.