Any thoughts here? Havent seen villain before, stats 24/14 AF infinite, small sample.

Stacking off on the flop is definitely a mistake, but I thought I would just call, hoping to find out if he was betting a low-plus-flush draw.

His turn bet doesn't give away any info, but I felt that the chance that he actually had AAxx was too high given the SPR; and even if I was right he still sucks out for half a lot of the time.

235x 23xx spades 25xx spades 35xx spades a(q)(4)xx with low cards 23kt w or w/o spades are a few hands

Flop once you get raised I would fold, 2 3 5 A K J T and you are scooped or dont feel confident that you are ahead. 2 3 5 6 7 8 you pretty much know you are putting in your money to get half or less.

Maybe you can play this different once you get to know the villain more

I think calling flop and folding that turn is really bad because KT should be a small part of his range (maybe KsJTs takes this line). And the opposite is true, so he can fire at this turn without worrying much.

Given your AF value for him, the number of hands you have on him and his stack size ... I think call flop and shove turn on non spades 532 is probably what I'd do, I've seen a lot of aggro. villains go nuts with *532 here and even if he has spades too you are still 65% on the turn. 32 with spades or two pair can also be trying for FE. Also while 44 only has 1 combo., I don't see it taking a different line. Ofc. sometimes you have 1 out.

If you think he can have random AA here, then fold flop I guess. Can also think about checking this behind on the flop against aggressive villains.

if you call flop i think jam turn

if he calls he doesnt necessarily have you beat but could have a big draw

AA seems less likely at first but maybe he is smart enough to not 3 bet it when so deep, maybe his aces are not that good. he could just have AQ though.

can probly discount 235 given call of PFR out of position and i have never seen a fish this deep so im guessing he knows not to have that hand OOP vs a raise unless it has a nice pointy one with it

If you fold this turn you really shouldnt call his flop raise IMO.

def felting this turn.. i expect to get shown AQ or a low wrap quite a bit

jam turn and hope to fade

People saying jam turn - is it "close, but jam", or are you fist pumping?

I think it's much closer on if you should just fold the flop. On this turn it's not close IMO. I'd think of it this way:

flop: AQ4

low turns: 235678 (almost certainly fighting for half, and the lower the more we are likely way behind ... we don't want these)

pairing turns: Q (our best card!) ... A (have to fold) ... 4 (sucks, if he bets, but folding feels horrible as he'd shove with A4)

high cards: 9TJK (all roughly the same)

...and, as said, he's almost certainly firing again after raising the flop. So unless we are drawing to 1 out on the turn we pretty much have to go with it on non-spade high cards.

^ I agree with the logic, but it's not too late on the turn to realise we made a mistake calling the flop , and fold the turn

i dont think fold flop, first because second set lol, and secondly sometimes it becomes clear (precisely because you have position) he does have AA or AQ and you have to turn second set into a bluff when spades/lows come, and these plays are quite valuable and necessary when you are deep. 100 bigs you're like "yeah not doing that, he's not folding" but this deep u can pull off some biiiig sick plays.

but i shouldnt tell you that.

Or loooose biiiggerrr.

Don't count on getting more folds because of your stack depth.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

3,150,440 trials (Exhaustive)

board: AQ4

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QQ54	Spoiler: 37.72%	682,982	1,490,889	6,985	224,351	43,561
(23: (A,ss,5,Q4,Q6,KJ,KJ,JT),44,AA,AQ: (52,53,ss,26,24,KJ,KT,JT),A4: (25,35,2:ss,(KJ,KT,JT):ss)):2%-15%	Spoiler: 62.28%	1,446,946	1,652,566	6,985	1,250,008	43,561

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

147,880 trials (Exhaustive)

board: AQ4J

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QQ54	Spoiler: 42.61%	49,848	76,174	0	0	0
(23: (A,ss,5,Q4,Q6,KJ,KJ,JT),44,AA,AQ: (52,53,ss,26,24,KJ,KT,JT),A4: (25,35,2:ss,(KJ,KT,JT):ss)):2%-15%	Spoiler: 57.39%	71,706	71,706	0	37,841	0

I think you played this fine except for the fold. Not re-jamming flop this deep and that turn is a relatively safe card IMO.

+1

i like the flop call because you are in much better shape on a safe turn. i think this is one of the best turns you can see. if you think its aces then fold the flop, not the turn