hi, folks.

a bit of a specific situation but one that is probably fairly common. all hypothetical but only to illustrate the question.


let's say this is our board.

J K 6 3


and this is our hand.

A K 5 2


the pot is heads-up, villain check/called the flop and now and our villain has checked to us on the turn. we are now trying to decide if we wish to bet the turn.

our read on villain: villain plays all his two-pair or better hands and strong draws aggressively OTF and is otherwise competent.

based on that read, and because he check/called the flop, he either has J, K-pair/gutter combos, middle to small flush draws, and unsuited straight draws here. practical advice aside, i'm interested in the pure equity of the situation but i don't know exactly what ranges/syntax i should be plugging into PPT for the villain.


would appreciate any help or suggestions if you think we can make a more accurate model.

thanks

What was the preflop action and bet sizing, how big was your c-bet, what position were you in, what position was villain in, what is villain's VPIP/PFR (overall and in the particular position) and aggression stats?

Also, what is the pot size and SPR here (on the turn). Your attempt to do an equity simulation suggests that you're thinking of shoving the turn. However, bear in mind that villain may fold bad hands and ship good ones, unless SPR is ultra ultra low, your pot equity doesn't correspond with the value in betting.

If SPR > 1 then I usually check this spot:
* If they have a flush, checking saves money
* If they have a low draw, we can scoop or 3/4 them when it fills
* If they have a set or 2 pair, then we maybe miss a bluffing opportunity, but that's less of a loss than when we get check-raised off the hand.

I would bet against very passive players who will check-call turn and check river if they have a flush.

at the risk of maybe misunderstanding what you have asked,
you are looking for help constructing a range for villian in propokertool syntax.

it would seem you are building villian's range according to your read of his flop action.

i'm not going to question your read, or suggest a different range.

i'll just attempting to help with construction.



building the range is infact just enumerating every possible hand in the range. since that can be cumbersome we attempt to do it in groups to keep the list smaller.

if i understand you, you break his range into 4 groups

1. all hands that are top pair(kings) with a gutshot draw.--(that don't violate one of the other groups).
2. all hands that are middle pair (jacks) with a gutshot draw.--(that don't violate one of the other groups).
3. a spade flush draw, but not nut,2nd nut or 3rd nut.--(that don't violate one of the other groups).
4. a straight draw w/o a flush draw.--(that don't violate one of the other groups).

constructing group 1.

every hand in group 1. has a King but not 2 kings or a Jack or a 6, and that achieves the top pair aspect.

the king must be accompanied with either AQ, or AT or QT or T9 to achieve the gutshot aspect.

you can write this as K: (AQ,AT,QT,T9)!(KK,J,6)

since group 3 aims to eliminate certain flushes, to not violate group 3 by including those hands in group one, its necessary to elimnate those flushes from group 1. the 3 flushes you are eliminating involve villian not having the As or Ks or Qs along with another spade.

so, we add Ass,Kss,Qss to the 'not' group and have
K: (AQ,AT,QT,T9)!(KK,J,6,Ass,Kss,Qss)

do you have any questions concerning group 1?

i have one, it still includes AA, although only AAKQ and AAKT but should AA be included or excluded and do you see how that would be accomplished?

if this was the help you were looking for try to take a stab at the other groups and post.

****the space between the colon after the king and the parathensis is not required, but is there only to avoid it looking like KAQ

kittens: thanks but ngftw's breakdown is pretty much exactly what i am looking for.

anyway, i can only skim now but will read in depth later.

also, very good point that villain's hands can/should include AA.