just want to write a little more about the hand b/c I plan to continue later + seems to be +ev for my poker game...this hand has a lot of levels to it, so I will just summarize to this point

Pre-flop:

This is a very good EP hand as opposed to an LP hand...in an NL game you can always limp this hand in EP and show at least breakeven if you play perfectly...if you don't play that well you should not play it...if you are able to understand the following you should limp in 100% of the time...this is a hand that can win both the high and low pots and gets action vs nuttish type of hands, so it is a powerful implied odds hand, meaning you actually want to be in EP, because you want to induce players to go multi-way

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with Q 5 6 K
1 fold, Hero calls $1

Post-flop

Flop: ($4.00) A 2 3 (4 players)
SB bets $2, BB folds, Hero calls $2, UTG+2 calls $2

Identify the high and low hands...this is really easy here because there is only one straight combo and it's BOTH the high and low...we don't have it so we have to do some detective work and figure out who does

Bet small/flat/FLAT

I am sure the person behind me would raise if he had 45

Turn

Turn: ($10.00) 7 (3 players)
SB bets $2

BET SMALL

I am sure the leader would bet more if he had 45

now we are excluding 45 from their range, and it's not important whether they actually have that hand, what is important is how it changes our equity when they don't

I have ballbarked that our low is good 98% of the time OTT...and i think this is a good estimate, because as we've shown, the deck will have delivered 46 to one of the two players just over 6% of the time

If they have connected for a high hand, they will have 46 much less than 1% of the time...this is because there are a very small% of hands that have connected for the high that also have a low

we have 4 out to the high nuts, they have chop outs to the low nuts and some of our high outs will be good some of the time, so we actually have a cluster**** of weighted outs

and for my next trick I will attempt to calculate our equity using the probability that one of the two players holds a 4,5 or 6...these are the most important cards because when they hold a single 5, a 4 OTR loses the low but wins me the high

when they hold a 6, a 5 OTR will chop the low and lose me the high, and when they hold a 5 a 6 chops the low and loses the high

this is a difficult calc so maybe i'll let it sit in my head for awhile

BTW here is the math of the flop...thanks to Buzz...if we add flush draws and two pairs + 46 only, we'll prob be close to 2%

Yes they will have a single 5 or a single 6 or a single 4 heaps and that greatly affects our outs and equity on the river...we actually chop a lot when a 5 or 6 hits

here is an equity sim calculation which is probably wrong...i tilted when you posted this because it's not correct, brute force fails 3way

This is not the only hand ever played in the history of O8. It doesn't need to be analyzed a million times.

Everything you say here is complete nonsense. It's a weak hand (Q 5 6 K) and being in weaker position doesn't make it any better. Sure, you might hit straight flush and win a big pot (or get a split with your str-flush), but that's about it. Hands that often make the nuts have powerful implied odds. This hand doesn't make the nuts.

Why? I'd flat with 45 there at least half of the time, as there is no need to protect it. I'd flat there 100% of the time if everyone was as easily tricked as you are into thinking that calling means you can't have the nuts.
Same story. I'd min-bet it every time if it made people think my hand is weak. It is simply wrong to exclude 45 based on these actions and leads you to wrong conclusions.

ur logic and thought processes are extremely flawed

It appears the mods are right.

Also OP, it is always ideal to play for one side of the pot.

YOU might flat here...perhaps you are a winning player...these two would not because they were fish

discussion isn't going anywhere really except a lot of ppl saying I'm wrong, but that doesn't matter...what matters is my equity when they don't have 45, not whether they actually have it or not

I'll leave it at this and maybe one day I'll download the O8 calculators and do it myself...or not coz I'm lazy and I'll just play poker instead

I actually posted this hand because I thought it was lolobvious I have the near nuts for half, and drawing like hell to the entire pot...my question wasn't even about my equity, or their ranges, it was about the bet way to proceed when in the middle with a nuttish hand like this, and it's still a valid question....no one has answered that

What I ask for the rest of the thread is no one to come in here and question my logic to this point because my logic doesn't matter...the real question is how much equity I have when they don't have 45

one day I might break it all down and show it, but in the meantime I wanted help for it, and if you can't give it you don't really add to the discussion

the key step that Buzz started but did not finish is to find the number of hands containing 46 that also double connect to the flop

Also, I'm going to be somewhat honest here

if you've chimed in on the thread and think it's a fold at this point or a fold to a raise, or even a fold if both shove, then I really doubt you are a top player able to beat the games for a living...it's a pretty hard game rake-wise, so you have to have a significant edge or you will go broke to the house

that means trusting your reads and being able to calculate odds based on them

no offense but 2p2 has to step up its game....it needs to have the kind of players who don't care about the result, just care about the maths, because if they happened to show up with 45 or 46 its being results oriented...it doesn't even matter if they have it

OP:

The gist of this thread's initial post is somewhat appropriate here, IMO.

That said, if you think you have the nut low, whether right or wrong, I would just call SB's turn bet. You don't have a high at the moment and getting both to fold a better high is unlikely. FWIW, I think you're going to have a hard time repping 45 given your call on the flop. Whether they can read that is unknown.

This is assuming that unrealzeal is trying to get better. Which, from reading his strategy posts for a while, seems to be a faulty assumption.

well if they have a high they are very connected to the flop with sets being very likely so they have a very strong high range, but i'm worried that they fold too often if i raise (would you fold AAA to a raise?)...from this point forward I am playing it as though I have the low nuts, because I have a hand that is better in terms of pot equity (I think)

I'd like the quality of posts to be good enough that I can learn, just like you

So they fastplay the nuts, because they're fish, but you can slowplay it because you're not? IMO, if you had 45, not raising the flop is equally fishy given the FD on the flop. Also, I don't know if fishy players will fold AAA to a turn raise (they have outs!)

Edit: FWIW, how to play trashy hands in marginal spots postflop is worth a lot less to your overall winrate than just not playing them in the first place, IMO. I.e. if you get to expert in these spots, you might get back to breakeven on them. You can do the same thing (be breakeven) via a lot easier fashion.

completely disagree with the bolded statement...the smaller edges are for more money and when we can polarize a range to 50/50, we make money every time we guess right

look...i know what you are getting at and it's that you do not want to set the range of 45 in our opponents hands to zero, but you have to in order to make money off the game

this is another level of the game that i suspect people are not seeing...when we talk about someone being completely polarized, they either have us crushed or have nothing...that means we have to guess right and we win when we guess right better than 50%

that's why the only play OTT is either fold, raise/call, or call/shove, because they either have the nuts or they don't...everyone in the hand is polarized, and 45 will show up in this hand roughly half the time, so IT'S A GUESS

if you guess that they have it in this particular hand then please FOLD THE TURN because you are only drawing to chop the low and don't have enough outs...

if you guess they don't have it then you have the virtual low nuts

either way it's a guess and you need to know what your equity is when you make your move

haha...yeah it's a snap raise/call OTT...I prob levelled myself when i just called

/thread i guess

Would you say this is an above-average flop for your hand? How much so? What percentage of the time do you flop as good or better than you did here? 10, maybe 20%? I'm not sure you actually do see what I'm getting at with regards to playing it on this exact flop vs. playing it at all.

obv this is a great flop for my hand and possibly one of the best I could have gotten...i don't see how that's relevant tho...I just happened to limp in because it's a pretty hand and possibly because I was one tabling and bored...i don't remember...it was surely not because I expected to see this flop

and it's very possible I never post this hand unless I had a question that I could not answer, which was whether or not I should slow play the low nuts...the fact that I actually played it and then posted it is just pure happenstance...if you wouldn't play it I can't blame you because you could lose money on it, but pre flop isn't really relevant...i'll pay a buck to see cards...if you don't have confidence in your skill to play well post flop don't pay the dollar

just read the thread one more time...i'm cool with it off the front page coz I get addicted to it...maybe in another 9 months I'll finish

hope everyone learned something tho...pretty sure i'm right that this is a nut low when they don't have 45...shouldn't really matter whether or not they actually have it...if it does matter to you, you are being results oriented

thanks a lot everyone for helping enlighten me and for making me think

jeff

Do you analyze a lot of hands with those two or how do you know exactly how they think in this spot?
It's called reality, my friend. It matters because all your arguments are based on "they can't have this, they can't have that". I have not seen the results of this hand, so there is no way I could be results oriented.

A2356 = THE NUTS

/THREAD

obv...your results should be on they can't have this, they can't have that...it's called deductive reasoning...you take all the possible hands and eliminate the ones they can't have...that's how you win in poker...your argument for every hand should be "hands they can't have", because that's all that matters

anyway...the equity calc for the turn is really tricky and i obv don't know how to do it but Buzz did a lot of the math and it totally backs me up

pre flop 27% hand -- if you are good at poker you should be able to play top 30%

flop -- you will have the low randomly about 50% of the time so you need to guess whether your hand is good using the information you have...you will be wrong sometimes and you will be right sometimes, the goal is to be right more often...I chose to believe they did not have 45

turn -- if they don't have 45 then I have the best current low >98% of the time

these are mathematical facts

OK, ban.

"turn -- if they don't have 45 then I have the best current low >98% of the time"

where do u get this math from lol?

they don't have 45, ok that isn't 100% of the time since some people play it weird. So they don't have nut low, but then since u have 1 blocker they don't have 2nd low 98% of the time?