Re: table dynamics of HH2. Although the table was TAG relative to the others I played at, it was still more passive postflop than you guys would think, with the exception of Dmitrii. Obv the main aspect that made the table really tough for me was having Dmitrii to my direct left with a stack that covered.

That's all to say that I did feel like I would be able to outmaneuver my opponents postflop, especially with the button.

But then again, a min 3b serves to discourage my toughest villain from entering the pot, so there's that ....

Excellent, thanks.



Thanks, its nice to have some high-level hands to discuss in the forums. Unfortunately I couldn't make it out to Vegas this year so someone else is gonna have to take it down instead of me. Good luck.

Alright, so after the double up, hero is card and flop dead as hell for the rest of day one (3 levels), but manages to steal some chips here and there to minimize the damage to his stack. Bag and tag 38.5k which is slightly below avg.

Day 2. Starting table is a pretty decent one with almost all rec players. After an orbit or two of play it's clear that the most opponents are fairly weak tight with one notable exception--our table CL (w 200k+), a middle aged Chinese guy from Alaska has a thinking lag. He's relatively passive pre but aggressive and tricky postflop. He is V1 in HH3.

HH3 takes place about 3 orbits into level 11 (600/1200), the 1st level of the day. Prior to this hero has chipped up to ~60k.

V2 (CO) has been quite but seems to be typical tight abc player. ~40k?

Hero (UTG+1) opens AAT8 nut spades for 2.5k, V1 (MP) and V2 call, blinds fold.

Flop (9.3k/7.7bb): KQQscx. Checked around

Turn: Tc. Checked around.

River: Jx. Checked to V2 who bets 6k. Hero calls. V1 makes it 30k. V2 folds.

Hero?

Hero snap folds. Also in general I think it's pretty bad to be min raising in plo8 esp when you will also be out of position with a hand that 1. Basically never flops the nuts given hands that call you block you improving and 2. Usually gets you in spots where you are just guessing post.

Guess I should probably explain why it's a snap fold, you only have 8k invested and you said yourself you thought your table was pretty soft, so why take this spot? He surely isn't bluffing here over 50% which is what u need for it to be profitable (I'm just estimating didn't do the math). Even if you called here and we're right I think it's a pretty terrible call

Looks like a squeeze play try by V1. Hero does have a Broadway.

(I don't know what the x means in KQQscx... I'm guessing it means either a diamond or heart... thus board on river for practical purposes is
KQQTJ)

V1 probably has a Broadway too. Maybe not. Could be a boat or quads. Could be nothing. V1 might slow play flopped quads or kings full. Hmm. Can't read it.

I'd hope it's just a squeeze play and call. (I haven't read further).

Buzz

seems like an easy fold:

1. You have minimum investment
2. You have a relatively healthy 50BB> stack, enough to exploit an admittedly soft table in a less risky manner going forward (outplaying the table post flop)
3. Though hero's and V2's ranges are fairly capped and face up, I'd still think it'd take a lot of balls to try and bluff the bettor and overcaller and hope to get through two guys on a board like this. I'd presume V1 is aware that he is representing a very narrow range
4. We have two cards to the broadway so it's less likely he's squeezing with the dry broadway, not that I think that's the most plausible holding

I'd fold mostly for 1 & 2

also thin but blocking two aces vs 2 players, I think it's reasonable to weigh V1 and V2's ranges a bit more towards high hands than usual too

Good points all. Let's talk about hand reading. What value hands are reasonable for v1's line?

Easy foldon river, also I would have bet the turn after being checked to twice.

I agree that its a pretty standard fold as described. Even calling the 6K bet is not an easy decision against strong opponents.

Villain could be making a sensational bluff based on good table feel, but I do not think villain is bluffing more than 35% of the time, if that. V2 may in fact, have value-bet and folded a non-nut full house. Also, we will be completely crippled if wrong.

Hero may also have called 6K on the river with full house (including the nuts) and be prepared to call a raise from said cagey villain.


Hand could be played differently on all streets, but I would not be calling down without an exceptionally strong read on this opponent.


KK, KQ, QQ mostly. Worse boats than that should mostly be happy to call unless they feel the need to turn trip Qs into a bluff.


Edit: villain can also obviously raise with broadway himself if he is confident no one else has a boat, but that isn't enough to make us want to call

I'm oop

I don't think this raise is credible at all. How can he check every street w/ KK or QQ unless he is almost certain he will get a bet on the river? Given the table has been weak and he is a thinking player, he shouldn't be expecting a bet without a made hand that would pay him anyways.

Hitting tens full on the turn could make sense if he wanted to play conservative out of position. But then it wouldn't make sense that he wants to play it aggressively on the river.

It feels like he missed completely and was uninterested in the pot, but then saw a chance on the river when no one had shown any real strength. There is now 21k in the pot after hero's call and he thinks the board looks scary enough to fold out hands that he is playing against with a 30k bet. This looks like a poorly planned bluff to me.

There are some good points about playing against a weak table. But, what is the point of playing a weak table if we don't pick off their bad bluffs? These are the spots we are looking for! If we are wrong we still have 20+ BB which I am comfy taking advantage of a bad table with. IF we are right, we are in serious contention.

Very good point.

However I'm reading V1 for a squeeze play. And he doesn't even need a Broadway to make this play. Thus Hero may scoop.

I'm for taking a chance here. If I get burned by quads or a full house, I'm taking the loss with a grain of salt. I think you have to go with your reads.

Wide, polarized, range.

There's no action here. V1 could have no fit with this flop and be trying a steal for an unbet pot on the river.

Or V1 could be very strong (quad queens or kings full) - but those are unlikely dealings. More likely he missed and is hoping to steal with a squeeze.

I don't favor taking many chances, but once in a while you have to go with your gut feeling... and mine, given your description of V1, is this is a textbook squeeze play. I think you pick it off.

No advantage to raising.

Call.

Buzz

value range should exclusively be QQ, KK, KQ. QJ, QT JJ and TT seem rather unlikely given how it was played, and they're certainly not raising after a bet and an overcall

I agree with the value range. I have ruled out KK, QQ, KQ, TT. I feel like if he was value raising QJ, QT, J the sizing would be closer to 20k.

All of you honestly think it's reasonable for villain (a lag remember) to check ALL 3 STREETS w KK, QQ or KQ being 2/3 to act?

I mean, V1 clearly might check these hands on the turn but why the river? V2 seemed fairly tight passive and I was honestly surprised he bet he presumed broadway (given how quickly he folded to the raise)

Rarely ever. Unless he has a strong indication that someone will lead the river. But given the table dynamics outlined, this seems unlikely.

To me they're both "unlikely" events: him checking thrice with the nuts and him checking and making an implausible bluff against an aggressor and an overcaller. It may be a leak but I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt in a spot like this unless I know for a fact that villain is a clueless donkey

Although given the way the action went, it is true that v2 suddenly needs a very strong hand to overcall the overall and the c/r. So in a vacuum, if v1 has a very strong read that v2 has Broadway and will fold when sandwiched before hero, its a good spot to squeeze

Maybe I'm wrong though and nitty as ****

Also another consideration is that out reward to the risk may be a chop, which affects the call success frequency required

Though that's mitigated by the two aces that you block

So in reality the above is a relatively unlikely factor but still marginally meaningful

Like buzz, I read V1's line as a bluff (squeeze play in his parlance). Hero's hand is practically face up and V2 is unlikely to have a boat imo.

Let's digress a bit and discuss V2's possible hands from V1's perspective (before he folds of course). Could he have KK (w/o an ace) and QQ? Yes, though both are very unlikely combinatorically and re: v2's preflop range. KQ? No because any hand in which he has a single K and Q also has an ace in it, suggesting V2 would have had to check back the turn with broadway & trips w 2 overcards which is just not credible.

And we're left w the likelihood that he bet broadway on the river. Does this make sense? Why would he do so?

Is anyone calling with worse? No (well, I can think of some reeeeally bad players who might call the river w trips, but he certainly shouldn't expect that of either V1 or hero).

Is anyone folding the same or better? Mayyyybe. Some tighter players might fold a chop here, but it seems unlikely.

Then again, V2 could also just be making a mistake in betting the river with Broadway. Or he could be making an adventurous bluff. Since his PF calling range almost always has an ace and very often has a broadway card to go with, I think the most likely hand V2 has is a rivered broadway.

I do think V1 was a capable, thinking lag who seemed not to fear putting chips in the pot and in particular used his stack to put selective pressure on his opponents w near PSBs.

Therefore, it makes a lot of sense that he'd try a x/r bluff in this spot when V2 hands this advantageous situation to him on a silver platter.

The main thing that leads one towards a call in this spot is that V1 is almost certainly betting the river with all his value hands, so his x/r doesn't really make sense.

Hero call and is good.

Cliffs: V1's line is fos.

A brief word on ICM here.

Obviously if hero calls in HH3 and is wrong, his stack is greatly reduced to a bit over 20k, but in this case hero will still have 18-20bb, a decent amount to work with still.

But if hero calls and is right, he now has a 100k+ stack that can be used to pressure nearly all the other stacks at the table. Further, it also discourages V1 (who still covers but less so) from challenging/pressuring hero in future hands. This last benefit is significant since V1 likes to play lots of hands and has position on hero in most hands, being 2 seats to his left.

I believe this risk reward balance is worth it, especially when combined with the analysis that V1 is nearly always bluffing in this spot, makes the decision a snap call (in game, hero took about a minute to think it through though).

Give hero has 2 aces and V2 almost certainly has broadway as well, the likelihood of V1 having broadway too is incredibly unlikely imo.

Disagree with kk kq and qq being most likely hands, I'd actually say that's a small portion of his range here. I'd almost certainly expect to see QJ here almost always and occasionally QT. The first 3 should basically always be betting the turn, once the straight hits he just needs to go for value given that if someone hasn't improved by then, it's really unlikely they do on the river either. However QJ and QT are good hands to check the turn with given he will only get called with worse 1 time more than likely.

It should also be noted that he can comfortably raise those on the turn, you literally have it 0% of the time, and the initial better has it very very little (esp since the nuttier hands bet the turn and if he has the small full house he blocks him having it as well)

I'd label that river c/r as simply bad. Nothing you said indicates he is a bad player. It's a pretty easy fold for me, unless I think villain is bad/illogical.