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Originally Posted by chillrob
Just a few more comments. I obviously hated that the turn card took away my likely best low dray, but it is still just slightly possibly that no one else made a low.
True.
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And it could not have hurt me for high.
Not true! The turn card put a flush draw, a wheel draw and a Broadway draw (none of which you have) on the board.
Omaha-8 is a
drawing game.
You had some good draws before the flop, and you still had some draws after the flop. But the turn completely ****ed you... took away your own draws and created some other possible draws for your opponents, V1 and V2.
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If anyone is ahead for high they were already ahead, and I could have just overtaken someone else's two pair.
In my opinion you're being way, way too optimistic.
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If I had checked the turn and everyone else had checked then I would know I had been ahead and should have bet.
I disagree.
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If it was bet I still wouldn't have known where I was at.
True.
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Honestly even looking back it seems that I was very unlikely to be raised, but it did happen.
I really didn't know what to think when I was raised on turn, but that guy was very aggressive and seemed to bet and raise in odd spots, so I didn't think I was necessarily beat.
Too late the phalarope. (the name of a depressing best seller book I read back in the early fifties).
Timing is important. Once you make the wrong move, subsequent actions are off.
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It does make for a lot of bad river cards though.
I really hated the river, mostly because it made the backdoor flush. Also a decent chance someone could have a 2 here.
I think there's a greater chance V1 or V2 have trips+full house+quads than V1 or V2 made the flush. I'll simulate that for you (using Wilson). 100,000 runs should be enough. I'll give two opponents blank cards and compare made flushes with trips, full houses, and quads.
seat 8 ends up with a spade flush 21465
seat 9 ends up with a spade flush 21258
seat 8 ends up with quads 659
seat 9 ends up with quads 677
Those quads are all quad deuces.
seat 8 ends up with a full house 10490
seat 9 ends up with a full house 10587
Most, but not all, of those full houses are deuces over.
seat 8 ends up with trips 8002
seat 9 ends up with trips 8125
Those trips are all trip deuces.
for seat 8, 659+10490+8002=19151
for seat 9, 677+10587+8125=19389
I was wrong. The spade flush is the greater threat. But it's close.
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Hoping maybe someone else will chime in, then I will give results.
OK, but I don't think results matter much for the purpose of this discussion. In my opinion, your correct move was to check the turn, planning to fold to a bet. And I think not to do so is a major error... a "big" mistake.
Just my opinion.
Buzz