Background: I have a lot of history with the villain in this particular hand; we play together almost every weekend. He's not a strong player, he plays a lot of weird/questionable hands(although, if he raises preflop, it's usually one of the standard O8 hands) and, he is a big defender of his blinds. But all in all, he's not as bad as he used to be because his postflop game improved quite a bit. Our history goes back a good ten years. He's very capable of bluffing/making moves, and he's also willing to check his monster flops until someone actually takes a stab at it on the river. Example: flop/turn is a high-only board and only a flush is present. He'll check twice w/the nuts trying to trap. Whether that's good poker or not is debatable but I'm just trying to give his tendencies. My tendencies, according to what I think he thinks of me, are: too aggressive at times, more straightforward with certain boards(I don't trap as much), I probably bluff more than most but not an excessive amount. All in all, though, I think he respects my game.

Ok, here's the hand. I expect to hear many different takes on this because in a vacuum, I don't think there is one definitive answer.

He raises UTG in a full ring game. ($60/120, 9 players)

Three or four players call, I call from the BB with: A957 suited.

Flop: K 9 6 rainbow

I check, villain bets, two players call, I shrug and make a pretty thin call(middle pair + gutshot draw).

Turn: 6 (K 9 6 6)

I bet. UTG calls. The rest fold.

River: off suit Queen.

I check, he bets.

Insta fold? Or is this, given our history, a call? And, is the pot big enough for this thin call? Roughly ~9 big bets in the pot.

OK. Obviously a flawed starting hand with those two middle cards (the nine and the seven), but OK, I'd take a flyer and call too.

I would fold. I think someone has at least a king, if not a set or two pairs, or a decent straight draw. I don't want to chase. Basically when I called the raise on the first betting round I was mainly hoping for a flush, a flush draw, a set, two pairs, or at the very least top pair. Having gotten none of those, and with three opponents, I'd fold.

I call this a bluff. You don't have a six or a king. You don't even have a pair of aces.

Now I have to look up above to see your read on UTG. After reading what you wrote about Villain and yourself, I think maybe he's playing you for bluffing. In other words, I don't have the faintest idea whether or not he holds a six or king.

Yeah. Figures. The bet itself means nothing to me. I'd expect this villain to bet after you check. But all you has is that stinking pair of nines! (Well... nines and sixes, because of the board pair). Against a top 30% hand, you're probably behind 1:2, something like that. But now you're getting something like 10:1 to call.

Only 9 big bets? (I made it ~10 but I didn't take out for the rake). No matter. Having gotten this far, I think you have to call.

In other words, I think you have favorable odds to call.

Buzz

I would have folded on the flop, you chose to feed the pot. To each their own. But its a 60/120 game... making it look like a case of burning Benjamins... BTW that Queen on river is double-trouble, good luck. Pass the marshmallows.

I think the suits are more important that you seem to indicate. Did you at least have a running flush draw on the flop? If so, I think that makes the flop call much better.

Also, did the turn complete the rainbow or make a flush draw possible? The second makes it somewhat more likely that UTG would call you with a worse hand.

As stated before no one likes the flop call but moving past that I would bet/fold the river. Checking seems like you have already decided to relinquish the pot. Continue with the bluff and hope to get AAxx or AKxx to fold. I also dont have a reputation of bluffing so this may work better for me than you. I feel a bet/fold here gives us the same info as a check/call but increases our chances of winning.

i agree with preflop, and flop call because your call seals the action. turn i would tend to c/f there. but ok you lead, and you could have the best hand in some situations but not vs UTG raiser who calls this turn. so for it's either a c/f on the river or a bet to continue the bluff. imo it would be a foolish bet, because he is not folding the river with what he called with on the turn; it is quite plain that he has a weakish hand made already that he will be stubborn with.

I think the Best the OP can hope for is Ac5d7d9c hero with Villain Suited A2 and its still a dog. Primarily AK2x ds. I didn't like the flop, and the pair turn gets me out, even if I THOUGHT I had a chance.

PPT says there are 6748 combos of (AA!(KK,99,66)) in a UTG range (~13%) and just about all of them can play exactly this way. Good luck finding 670 combos of hands you beat.

It's not hard to find plenty of combos that you beat if the villain can have a flush draw on the turn.

I think you have the exact sort of hand that shouldn't be bluffing the river here. Really no chance a better hand folds, unless the villain stumbled into a queen.

I really don't get the turn bet, into all those players. Is this just a total bluff, hoping to represent trips? Would you really bet out with A6 here, or try for a check-raise?

Yeah, it was more or less a bluff. But, when UTG bets the flop, I'm expecting a player w/a King to raise, so at this point(turn) my only real concern is, does someone else have a 6?..cause I think I can probably get middle pair to fold. And at this point, there were only 3 players involved.

My most successful bluffs come from me betting from early position because it's more believable, you just have to have a damn good read, and a good feel as to how someone might react to your bet, and naturally, it's harder to pull off.

Yes, if I had A6, I would just lead the turn because the board is just too draw heavy to give them a free river. If I held a card that could complete someone's straight(A6QJ or A6T8 or w/e) then I might go for a check raise. But I'm not a big fan of checkraising in hands where no one seemed interested enough to raise someone's bet prior to this. Bottom line, if I had A6, I'd be looking for more certainty that someone was going to bet. I don't like missing bets.

It was a complete rainbow flop/turn. But, yes, I did flop one of my suits.

Good point, though, cause knowing that a flush wasn't possible on the turn, UTG has to have at least a King. And, on the off chance he didn't, when he calls a turn bet w/that board, then that Q is a real bad card for me, too.

This player is not folding a King. He's just not. He's not calling the turn OOP with just a King and then fold the river when it's just HU. And nor would I.

And, he also knows, that I'm not checking the river with a 6.

So, his bet on the river is for pure value with AKxx being at the bottom of his range.

If someone like yourself were to bet this turn, who is basically a non bluffer, he probably would be more inclined to fold all his one pair hands. I don't think I bluff a lot, just more than some.

Buzz:

In regards to my actual hand, I did have a wheel draw along w/a nut flush draw, so, the hand isn't that bad. But, yes, agreed, that flop is nowhere near what it should look like for me to feel that continuing is optimal. But, I did have a running flush draw, a gutshot straight draw, and a 9 draw. Too loose? I'm starting to think: "Yes."

I see that you like a call on the river, which, is purely based on pot odds, correct? Cause my read tells me not to make it. And my read on this player is very accurate.

The flop call is good. The running flush draw adds about 4% relatively clean equity given that a low is unlikely, which in addition to all your other somewhat dirty outs, gives you more than enough to call getting 11-1.

I felt my call may have been too loose(even though I find myself making many of these exact type of calls). Thanks for doing the math and shedding some light.

Do you call the river? I did not, I went with my accurate read. But pot odds suggest that I should have. Is he bluffing 1 out of ~10 times? Meh, maybe.

Hard to know...in the tempo of a live game it's hard to get a sense of correct pot odd for river calls, because it requires calculating the number of combinations of various hands that might play a certain way.

But without a flush draw on board, there's very little that I can see him calling the turn with that you beat. Even a lot of his straight wraps now beat you. So I guess I would lean toward folding.

I'd see the flop with your starting hand too (though I do think it's flawed with those two middle cards, the seven and the nine.

The back-door flush draw (or running flush draw) does add value... but honestly not much. Compared to flopping two of your suit (where you need just one of your suit on either the turn or river, and where you have 9 outs) flopping one of your suit is worth approximately 1 out. + not quite 4 more outs - and it's not a nut straight. + not quite 2 outs.

If we stretch it, you have 7 "outs" for high. That's not enough outs. Moreover, they're mostly poor outs. That is, you can make trip nines or a nine-high straight and still lose. It's a horrid high draw for Omaha-8 and it's a worse low draw.

In my opinion, it's too loose.

No. It's based on a comparison of "pot odds" to "hand odds." (Hand odds are the odds against your winning the hand).

Your "pot odds" are greater than your "hand odds." That's what you need to have "favorable odds."

If you win one time in nine, then you'll lose eight times in nine. (You'll actually win more often than one time in nine, but don't be confused by that).

The one time in nine you win, you'll win nine big bets. That's more than enough to make up for the eight big bets you'll lose by losing eight times in nine.

+9-8 = a positive total.

In other words, you'll mostly lose, but when you win you'll more than make up for the losses.

Well... if you're certain this player has you beat, then fold. But from what you wrote about him in your opening post, I think you'll win more often than one time in nine. (If there are nine big bets in the pot, winning one time in ten is your break even point).

Buzz

After taking everything into account, I think my initial feel to fold the flop, is correct.

In a heads up pot things may change, but when UTG bets and gets two callers, I really don't want to be sitting there w/middle pair and a draw to the losing end of a straight.

In retrospect, I've been finding myself in quite a few of these predicaments with flops like this and stretching things too far is just not good overall. These spots are too hard to play profitably and correctly and quite frankly, I don't need to put myself here.

How many outs do you think is enough? By the pot odds, you only need four.

The running flush outs (I would weight this as probably 1.5 outs) are very clean. The two 9 are also pretty clean (they make a low impossible, generally people will not draw to marginal straights and flushes with a pair on the board, and a full house is unlikely given preflop hand ranges unless someone has KK). I would weight these as probably something like 1.5 outs.

The four straight outs are not very clean. They put out a low draw, two of them put out a flush draw (other than your own), and of course there is a higher straight possible (though not particularly likely give preflop selection. I would probably weight these as about 1.5 outs as well.

So just from these three possibilities you already have the odds to call. But you also have 9 outs to 2-pair! These outs are very dirty; you probably lose most of the time you hit these. But you don't lose all of time. You need to weight them, not dismiss them entirely. Even if you only weight them as 25% of an out each, you now have way more equity than you need to call.

And there are other possibilities other than your immediate weighted outs:
- Sometimes you make a flush draw on the turn, and then make trips or a straight on the river
- Sometimes you make a no-good two-pair on the turn, but make a straight or fill up on the river
- You could hit a 2/3/4 of your suit on the turn, and make the 2nd nut low on the river
- You could whiff the turn, but have it check through and hit the river

All of these are small additional equity, but they add up to something significant, especially when you are getting 11-1.

And perhaps most importantly, no one has indicated any particular strength in this hand beyond putting two bets in preflop. Just calling one small bet in a pot this size says very little about the strength of someone's hand. If you simulate your hand against 3-players with reasonably strong ranges (say, top 15% hands), you are actually a significant equity favorite with ~30% equity. Folding here is way too tight.

I concur this situation costs $$$ in the long-run, that turn for me is insta-muck vs. 3 villains.

I don't know. It's not easy to figure because of split pot possibilities. For example, if we count the eights as turn outs (we make a middle card straight with an eight) that puts another low card on the board, increasing the possibility of a back-door low on the river.

Really? That doesn't seem right to me.

After the flop we see seven cards and the other 45 are unknown. If we have 4 outs, then there must be 41 bricks. Thus it's about 10 to 1 we'll miss on the turn.

With ten to twelve bets in the pot after the first betting round, if no low is possible (but that's not the case) then we're getting more than 10 to 1 immediate pot odds to call.

If we get "all-in" by calling on the second betting round and low is not possible, then there's no more betting and we indeed are getting more than 10 to 1 pot odds to call.

Are we now folding to a bet if we miss? If not, we're not really getting 10 to 1 pot odds to call the flop bet. In that case, we need more than 4 outs to call the flop bet.

And if we catch one of our four "outs" on the turn, are we then assured of a win? Suppose the board becomes K986 and our 75 makes a nine-high straight. Notice that a ten high straight is already possible and any Q, J, T, or 7 on the river enables a higher straight. Or any K, 9, 8, or 6 on the river enables a full house or quads. And there also may be a flush possibility. Most of the cards in the deck will enable a better hand on the river than our nine-high straight. And any new low rank enables a low. Basically, after we make our nine-high straight on the turn, we won't like any river card.

...unless the board pairs, and unless the flush outs enable low.

Here's how I get about 1 out for a running flush:

• With two flush draw cards in Hero's hand and with two flush draw cards on the board, there are 9 flush outs. Hero should expect to make a flush
  360/990 or 36.36% of the time.
  
  With two flush draw cards in Hero's hand and with one flush draw card on the board, there are 10 back-door flush outs. Hero should expect to make a flush
  45/990 or 4.54% of the time.
  
  If 360/990 is equivalent to 9 outs, then
  45/990 must be equivalent to 1.124 outs (or about 1 out).

Are you assuming Hero only needs 4 outs to call? I think that's only true if Hero gets all-in by calling the second round bet.

Ouch.

Maybe with the pre-flop raise and five of you seeing the flop, you do. (I have to admit it looks like you do).

That's true.

All true.

I disagree that you're getting 11 to 1. You're only getting 11 to 1 if calling puts you all-in and if there are no split pot possibilities.

In my opinion, it's very deceptive to consider your immediate pot odds. I think you need to instead consider implied pot odds (and sometimes reverse implied pot odds).

And we don't know if one or both of the callers will come alive and raise on the turn.

Agreed.

Agreed.

You're right about that, and it's a good point. It would be a better point if Hero's opponents had all checked this flop.

But after Hero checks, Villain bets and two players call.

Maybe none of them know what they're doing. Or maybe they're all trying some kind of tricky move.

But I think it's more likely at least one of the callers has a better fit with this flop than Hero. Perhaps one of them has a king, and if so, if we give the other two random cards,

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: K96

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
As9s7h5d	26.41%	108,030	150,136	15,407	68,093	9,608
****	19.43%	83,832	104,701	15,471	33,147	6,369
****	19.46%	84,010	104,697	15,463	33,256	6,457
K***	34.70%	175,429	210,929	13,576	19,262	4,315

Even so, if one opponent bets the turn and the other two fold, I think Hero has sufficient equity to continue.

However, if Hero faces a double bet on the turn, then I don't think he does.

It's the threat of multiple bets on the turn and/or river that is a deterrent.

If we're sure that won't happen, while not as rosy as you make it, I have to admit that Hero seems to have favorable odds to continue.

Perhaps so. I think it depends on how our opponents will play on subsequent betting rounds. If we're certain the play will be passive, then I think we do have favorable odds to continue.

The problem, as I see it, is we're not certain of the play on the turn or river.

Thanks.

Buzz

I call preflop. Suited ace is more than enough for me from the BB.

I check and call the flop. We have a backdoor nut flush draw AND we close the action, which is super important for me.
The board is also very dry for LO8, so even though A9 is unlikely to be best right now, improving should give us a good shot at high. All in all, I like the call. One more thing about the flop - one of Sklansky's powerful insights into the game of poker: sometimes, even when it seems like you don't have quite enough equity on the flop, peeling one off may still be correct just in case you improve or the turn gets checked through.

On the turn I usually check and fold unless the image is right and I think that my opponents will find it hard to call with less than AK. Then, I would bet.

As played, I think I check and fold the river, as I don't see how this hand can be a profitable bluff at this point, and I don't see how we beat villain's preflop raising, flop betting, turn calling and river betting range often enough.
Check-raising the river is an option (but a crazy one, I must admit), trying to represent a weird-BB-special full house, which might legitimately take this line with flopped two pair and turned full house, trying to get max value on the river.
If you think villain is capable of thin value betting and then folding AA/AK to a strong river C/R, then it might be your best option.

All in all, I think the hand wasn't played nearly as bad as some might think. It's just one of those tough BB spots. In the right situation (mainly tighter opponents) I actually like it!

OK I had a few beers and I'm totally confused on this hand, what hands are we expecting to bluff catch on the river?