Live mid-stakes 8-handed

Preflop:
I limp AQ93 UTG+1, button calls, SB (laggy preflop, fairly OK postflop) raises, BB (hold'em player who's passive) calls, I call, button calls.


Flop: J42 (4 players, 8 sb)
SB bets, BB calls, I raise???, button folds, SB and BB call.

Not sure on the flop raise. I guess I raised for a free card, to make SB fold any sort of A2-type of hand, and to possibly clean up a bunch of my high outs (maybe make the best high on an A/Q/9 turn card).


Turn: 8 (3 players, 7 bb)
SB bets, BB calls, I call.

I only called the turn, because the SB should basically have A3xx here all the time (I mean, no other hand makes sense) and I have no high.


Thoughts? I'll add river action later.

flop raise tends to buy you the BTN, which is generally a good thing, but it also means that a player behind you folds, and with bare nut low draw (well, wheel draw too) you don't necessarily want anyone to fold.

i'd normally call. just so you know, i'm not a big fan of the free card play. when I raise, I try to do so for value or to create fold equity. I think you have neither here.

turn call based on hand reading the SB makes good sense. i'd look for spots to gamble and raise with nut low+double gutter. this is probably not one of them.

I mean, you raised him on the flop, he still donks a low completing turn card. if he doesn't show up with A3, take a note and adjust in future hands. for now, a call is fine.

BTW, FWIW, i'm not gonna call you a nit if you open fold this hand from EP. just sayin'...

Wow, I thought I was tight-ish and you were more LAG. Maybe my calibration is off, but I thought this was closer to a raise than a fold pf.

Suited A-3 with decent-ish high card strength that I'm guessing plays better HU/3-way than multiway.

The 9 is not great, but it works with the A-Q to make nut straights rather than the low end.

OK.

Your flop raise is fine.

Raising to "make SB fold any sort of A2-type of hand" doesn't make sense to me.

Interesting thinking. (That didn't occur to me).

I think you should raise.

It may make sense to SB to bet here mainly to try to chase BB or you out of the pot.

Getting quartered possibly is a big deal in a pot-limit or no-limit game. However, getting quartered in a fixed-limit game is simply no big deal. You do better if you don't worry about it. There are other more important considerations.

Raise the turn.

Buzz

I like how you and str8 have completely different suggestions on the postflop line. I think that means either you or him are completely wrong.
I'm assuming that a big portion of SB's pf raise range includes A2xx. On this flop, many A2xx hands have flopped basically crap (I'm thinking of hands like A2KQ, A2TT, A2K8, etc.). So getting the hand heads-up with the BB who is playing the hand like it's LHE is probably good with a bunch of dead money. The cleaning up outs is part of this, as if A2xx folds, a turn A has a strong chance of getting us the high. If SB has A2Qx, a Q may give us the lone high.

In any case, I think the SB folding A2xx where he has no low draw or real high hand is probably good for us as it improves the possibility we scoop with a weak high.

Why?
I can see some chance of the BB folding the turn, but I can't think of any hands that I raise on the flop that is EVER folding the turn. Like zero. Can you think of anything I should raise on the flop and fold on the turn?

Good point. The more LO8 I play, and the more completely retarded **** I see people draw to/call down with, the more I agree with this.

I don't generally read other replies before I respond to a thread opener and I didn't read str8's reply before responding this time.

Different individuals often have different points of view. Meh.

Thank you for explaining.


The raise is multi-purpose. Partly it has to do with your overall table image. You also increase your chances of ending up scooping this pot if you raise here. It's part of making a bet by you on the river seem more credible. And I think you probably have the best low hand at this point (rather than a tie for the best low hand).

OK, but your opponent probably doesn't think like you. You're already pointed out that two of us who responded to your thread have different opinions regarding how to proceed. And that's the way it is in a game too. People have different opinions.

Are we talking about you folding on the turn? I suggested you should raise on the turn, not fold.

BB probably won't fold either. (Maybe he will, but probably he won't).

BB may have called SB's flop bet because he thought it was merely a continuation bet, and then he called your raise because he figured he was getting great odds (twelve or thirteen to one) to call your raise. He might not be putting much thought into what he's doing, just hoping somehow he'll win.

To answer your question, no, I cannot think of any cards that merit a raise on this flop and then a fold on this turn. (Just because I can't think of any doesn't mean there aren't any, but no, I can't think of any). Did you ask the question because it doesn't make sense to you that SB would bet the turn hoping you would fold? That might not have occurred to SB because he might not be thinking that way.

I'm still in favor of Hero raising on the turn.

Buzz

you seem to have more than your fair share on the turn, so a raise is better.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: J42

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AsQs9s3h	30.22%	50,527	55,564	22,499	219,747	130,596
((A3,A5,J,35,22,44,hh,QQ-AA)!(A3JJ,A5JJ,35JJ,JJ:hh)):20%	25.49%	61,901	135,973	23,290	58,518	129,843
((J,42,hh,35,A3,A5,QQ-AA,44,22)!A3: (22,44,88,JJ)):75%	44.29%	137,741	384,443	2,730	16,750	5,250

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: J428

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AsQs9s3h	37.61%	30,705	66,157	27,979	184,358	374,225
((A3,A5: (QQ-AA,hh,J,88,84,82,42,67),J8,35: (48,88,28,67,8:hh),22,44)!(A3JJ,A5JJ,35JJ,JJ:hh)):20%	26.30%	20,903	79,708	28,452	34,986	373,983
((J,42,hh,35,A3,A5,QQ-AA,44,22)!A3: (22,44,88,JJ)):75%	36.08%	5,485	425,366	1,109	5,852	2,946

Raising the turn seems bad to me. I think it's more likely that both of them have A3 than neither of them and we have no high atm. It's just charging yourself to draw in the (no way, not gonna happen) hope that they fold on the river. Just call, call turn, pop river IP if you hit, otherwise call.

I'm unclear why no hand other than A3 makes sense for SB. Wouldn't he play a high-only JJ hand like this? What about Ax (maybe A5 or AJ) or AJ2? He's laggy pre so it's even conceivable he might show up with something like 5432.

I'm pondering (but not yet fully endorsing) Buzz's suggestion of a raise. It would be for value, and I vehemently disagree that

Because of card elimination and because of at least a loose preflop SB (and perhaps a loose limper?), that's pure monsters under the bed.

We do have around 6 outs for high, which amortizes the risk of getting quartered. Getting quartered for two more bets loses us half a bet, but getting value from the lone A3 gets us more than half a bet, because sometimes we scoop. Note that we're freerolling something like naked JJ. Even it we're behind something like A3J, it's far from certain that we get 3bet, in which case getting quartered loses us a quarter of a bet.

If for whatever reason we really are terrified of another A3, a turn raise could lead to a free showdown when we don't improve. When we do improve, we get a third bet in, which certainly wasn't going to happen if a 5 comes on the river and might not happen on a ten. Again, this does carry the price of getting three-bet but that's somewhat dampened by our equity in both directions.

JJ 3-bets the flop. And BB is playing this a lot like A3 with meh/no high imo.

Bare JJ also doesn't donk turn, imo.

Sorry, I misread the flop action. Although people do weird stuff when they think they're slowplaying, I agree that JJ is unlikely for a decent player and that A3 is pretty big chunk of the range. Some of the other hands I suggested are plausible but odd. Getting sixthed is still pretty unlikely.

"And BB is playing this a lot like A3 with meh/no high imo." -- BB is passive and a HE player. He would play most hands like this -- A5, xx, 53, Jxxx.

That said, now that I'm aware of the flop raise, I don't think I like a turn raise. But it's closer than people might give it credit for.

As to what you quoted, I agree its unlikely they both have A3. My saying its less likely that neither do is more the point. Little and littler.

I also think SB's line says he doesn't want to face BB with calling 2 cold, but doesn't want it to check through. That reads as monster hand as well as made hand imo. But perhaps something afraid of a heart as well?

Just for comparison, I think it's a pretty clear turn raise with AQ73 unless SB is very likely to 3bet here. Now our draw is significantly stronger and it's far less likely we get led into if we make our high hand. When we miss, get checked to, and check down the river, we're putting in the same number of bets as calling down. When we hit, we can get in a third bet on the river that would never happen if we had called the turn.

Just so I'm clear, the argument I'm reading for raising the turn is that SB may be doing something illogical/retarded.

Because we're basically devolving ourselves into Level 1 thinking ("I have the nut low, I raise"), and ignoring what villains could have because they are possibly illogical.

Not that that's necessarily wrong, but I just want to make it clear on the reasoning you're suggesting.