Live LO8: Am I valuebetting top two too thinly on Broadway, paired board in position?

[AKQJ10]

Originally Posted by Leroy2DaBeroy

Edit: I'm raising AKQJ. Postflop playability is pretty straightforward and we have the equity, IMO.

You might end up reconsidering that opinion about the equity. AKQJ (any suitedness) is never a hot-and-cold money favorite against a bunch of plausible hands. These results should also address the question of card removal -- with five other top 20% hands out, you might think the low cards would be gone and AKQJ would soar in value, but it doesn't. (If someone wants to question the ProPokerTools hand ranking and devise a better range of what moderately competent players actually do play, it might look much different -- I'd love to see it.)

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AKQJ	43.42%	181,706	312,198	34,606	0	0
20%	56.58%	253,196	253,196	34,606	303,931	0

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AKQJ	30.85%	125,397	215,719	36,785	0	0
20%	34.48%	95,492	168,648	28,654	146,543	58,448
20%	34.67%	96,385	169,700	28,658	146,909	58,448

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

154,622 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AKQJ	24.26%	26,317	41,737	8,496	0	0
20%	25.23%	15,556	33,456	5,792	21,218	18,680
20%	25.17%	15,586	33,235	5,835	21,174	18,613
20%	25.35%	15,690	33,787	5,813	21,131	18,520

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

7,982 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AKQJ	18.84%	1,104	1,631	313	0	0
20%	19.89%	640	1,395	214	747	811
20%	20.51%	661	1,480	228	761	782
20%	20.17%	667	1,423	209	731	849
20%	20.58%	690	1,492	209	731	805

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

131 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AKQJ	12.09%	11	17	6	0	0
20%	19.72%	9	25	5	12	13
20%	19.02%	8	20	2	13	17
20%	17.24%	7	15	3	14	18
20%	13.42%	5	17	2	8	13
20%	18.51%	7	25	7	10	8

To be honest, I wonder if I'm misusing PPT because, beyond the obvious randomness, the 131 trials for that last one doesn't make sense to me. Anyone?

[str8 or better]

when you have an ace and 5 other players all have top 20% hands, ask for a setup...

[AKQJ10]

Well, yeah, that was my thinking, that there are few combinations because all the aces are gone. Still, it surprised me that the stub would be so constrained that PPT could only come up with 131 different boards.

Maybe this is better. AKQJ is enough to raise for value here:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

6,398 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AKQJ	18.70%	847	1,294	288	0	0
20%	20.48%	459	875	177	1,052	543
30%	16.99%	394	860	171	707	442
40%	14.87%	382	867	162	468	318
50%	14.60%	422	970	168	300	254
60%	14.35%	409	991	162	275	215

But it requires some really loose opponents. It's still a slight dog here:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

255,998 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AKQJ	24.43%	43,850	70,546	13,032	0	0
20%	26.99%	28,128	51,954	9,541	50,939	23,789
30%	24.22%	25,957	57,295	8,060	34,571	18,875
30%	24.36%	26,175	57,494	8,006	34,971	18,887

but might make up for it in IO?

[str8 or better]

raising AKQJ makes it tougher for opponents to play against you postflop. your raising range connects decently with more boards. that's the main reason. it's enough to raise it only some of the time.

[LUCIUS VARENUS]

re: OP

hand 1 shorthanded limp behind, full ring pass. but live poker so probly limp since "this is the best hand i've seen all day"
hand 2 bet/call. if raised, call to improve, if no help fold. if not, just keep betting for value unless the board changes too much, but against some fish, still bet and shock some people

[AKQJ10]

Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS

re: OP

hand 1 shorthanded limp behind, full ring pass. but live poker so probly limp since "this is the best hand i've seen all day"
hand 2 bet/call. if raised, call to improve, if no help fold. if not, just keep betting for value unless the board changes too much, but against some fish, still bet and shock some people

Thanks, but I'm confused. There's only one hand in my OP. Maybe my notation is hard to read.

At the table I bet down like you suggested, but consensus seems to be that the bet was too thin on the river. (But I did read the guy as a calling station...)

[LUCIUS VARENUS]

yeah i got confused with another thread. what i said about "hand 2" is my 2c.