$15/30 one-third kill
9 handed

Reads:

• SB is very tight, moderately aggressive
• BB is tight, moderately aggressive
• CO is very loose, moderately aggressive, crazy table image, the game is mostly going because he's in it.

I'm $20 kill and button with QT87

Preflop
folds
HJ (TAG) c
CO (crazy) c
Hero x
SB c
BB c

Flop ($96, 4.8 SB)
65J

x x x x
Hero x

Although I have a "strong" draw, it's really not that great, because it only makes the nuts for half-pots, and making the pot big seems like it creates tough decisions. The turn card will change the value of my hand greatly. Therefore it seems wise to take my free card before deciding whether I have enough to continue.

Counterpoint: A flop bet could buy me a free river card when lots of turn cards would make me wish for a free river. However, this game is aggressive enough that out-of-turn ("donk") bets would be pretty common.

Turn ($96 2.4 BB)
Q

x
BB (TAG) b
f
CO (crazy) c
Hero ???

Notes: I have no scoop nut outs; I have 3 outs to nut high; I have top pair; the bettor is aggressive here and need not have a nut hand--estimated range any two pair, KT, JT, 87, A2, maybe A3Q, decent diamond draw; pot is small.

The time to bet was on the flop especially if you're now considering a call on the turn. If you don't think it will get c/r'd, then I don't see this as a tough decision for the turn; this is a prime example of using your position in O8; players say that it doesn't matter in this game, but it does. And, I don't think anyone flopped much of anything tbh because loose aggressive players don't give free cards. I would (almost) never check this flop in your position.

...But now, there's a tight player leading out into the entire field from the big blind, and, I just don't think you have much of a hand w/one card to come, plus you now have to fade the flush draw. And, even though this will only probably be a three handed pot(I'm predicting that the sb will fold)I would still fold, unless the CO makes really super thin calls and you can pinpoint the bettor's range to where you might actually scoop this hand with some crazy two pair?..to me, it just sounds too wishful, and the pot doesn't warrant the fight.

This is a full, nine-player game. In my opinion you have missed a satisfactory fit with the flop. Period.

Playing heads-up or in a short handed game, what to do becomes "iffy." But in a full game your starting hand is crap and you missed a good fit with this flop.

What would a "good fit" be?

Best hands to hold after R2 flop:
• nut low draw plus any set,
• nut low draw plus top two pairs, or
• nut low draw plus top and bottom two pairs.

You don't have one of those. Does someone else? Hard to tell.

Seems wise to me too. A miracle card on the turn might make something worth playing for you. What would a miracle card be? 9 imo.

I can think of lots of turn cards that would make me wish for a free river, but none of them are worth a small bet to me.

I'd fold. Hero missed.

Fold.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

If crazy had folded I wouldn't mind raising turn, but here just fold. Yeah bet flop

I'd probably peel and feel comfortable playing the river. Maybe not a lot of nut outs but we don't necessarily need the nuts here unless this dude is a super nit. Could have the best hand already and there's quite a few improvement cards. Betting the flop is lighting money on fire

Why would you bet the flop? It's not actually a good flop for you. You're a pretty big equity dog against a random hand, and a bigger equity dog against a hand that calls you. And it's not like you really clean up any outs by betting. Anyone with a decent low draw or flush draw will call one bet here. I think it's just putting money in bad.

I would only call the turn if you are willing to call down unimproved (assuming the river is not terrible like a diamond or an Ace). I don't think you have the weighted pot odds to just draw to a better hand (since many of the cards that improve you will still give you a second best). But you are a favorite here against a player who is very loose, or a player who will bluff frequently. It sounds like CO fits to former category, so it's just up to whether you think BB is bluffing often enough to call down with top pair only.

Hrrrm, re: betting flop. How do we handle the following hypothetical?:

Flop ($96, 4.8 SB)
6c5dJh

x x x x
Hero b
f
BB (TAG) c
f
CO (crazy) c

Turn ($156, 3.9 BB)

case I

3

BB b, CO c, Hero ???

case II

3

BB check, CO b, Hero ???


case III

Q

BB check, CO b, Hero ???


All of these betting patterns are moderately likely in this game. The CO is full of zany gambling fun and might fire on any sort of draw that tickles his fancy. The BB is more calculating, but would correctly fire out of turn with any NL plus draw (including NL plus pair), 2NL plus draw (because I have only the very weakest A2 in my range, and who knows what CO has?), top two, wrap, maybe OESD or NFD, etc.


BTW, the reason why I don't do well in this game is despite some looseness pre, it's very aggressive like this post. It's relatively rare even for the flop to get checked through like this. So I'm constantly facing the sort of tough decisions in cases I, II, and III.

I've decided that I'm doing well if I can "pay for lessons" and not give up too much expectation.

An offsuit ace is an interesting card. I have the terrible low, so if the action goes b-f-? then there's a good chance I'm good for half getting 2.25:1. BB would probably raise pre with A23/A24/good A2/maybe a good A34, so to beat me both ways he'd need two pair or a set with a low (four card hand), KJLL (four card hand), A7Lx, or A34 he didn't raise. Since he could bluff misses too, I think it's worth a call but probably not an overcall on an ace river.

Not sure about on other rivers, which is part of why I I think I folded. (My notes are unclear and I've forgotten.)

This. Betting the flop this multi way with rank equity seems super ******ed imo. But heh I don't play limit.

I sincerely believe betting this flop, even though everyone in front of you has checked, is a poor idea in Omaha-8. A very important difference between four-card-Omana-8 and Texas hold 'em is everybody has four cards instead of just two. For two of your cards to make two pairs or a set in Texas hold 'em, you'd need
66
55
JJ
J6
J5
or 65.

Considering this flop, there are 3*3+3*3*3=36 ways to have one of those hands when playing Texas hold 'em. That's out of C(49,2)=1176 possibilities.
The probability of that is only 36/1176=0.0306, or about 3%. 3% is small enough that multiplying it by the number of opponents is a reasonable approximation. Thus if five of you see the flop in Texas hold 'em, it's only 15% or 14%... something in that neighborhood, roughly six to one, none of your five active opponents will have been dealt one of those hands. Texas hold 'em books are written with this in mind.

But it's about six times as likely someone dealt four cards has two particular cards as someone only dealt two cards.

Anyhow, what it boils down to is Hero has completely missed a fit with this flop.

In Texas hold 'em, if five opponents saw this flop, probably none of them has a two card fit either... but in Omaha-8, someone probably does have a good fit.

What would a "good fit" be in a full game where five opponents saw the flop?

The best hands to hold after an R2 type flop are:
• nut low draw plus any set,
• nut low draw plus top two pairs, or
• nut low draw plus top and bottom two pairs.

You don't have any of those hands... or anywhere close to them.
Therefore don't bet and if someone else bets, fold.

Fold.

Fold.


Fold.

Raise.

I'll agree it's more difficult to play against aggressive opponents. But I'll suggest another possibility for why you don't do well: you may not realize when you have missed a satisfactory fit with the flop. (At any rate, that seems to be the case here).

Hope that helps.

Buzz

i would not bet flop either. pot's too small to get any more involved on turn. you're not closing the action and i really can't think of any card that i would want to see on the river.

Thanks, Buzz. I probably made it unclear, but I checked through on the flop. My reply there was the hypothetical for those advocating a flop bet, not the way I played it.

BTW, I think a flop bet could be marginally correct if opponents are likely to give a free card on the turn. That bet would be because my equity is enough to pay one SB to see two cards. It's not that I consider this a "good" flop fit, but that a marginal fit is worth 1SB to see turn and river. But I thought that play was likely to backfire in this aggressive game.

Thanks. I understood that. You did make it clear.

Assuming you fold to a river bet unless you make what you recognize as a winning hand, it only costs you 1 small bet when you miss.

Assuming two opponents fold an two stay to a flop bet, when you make what you recognize as a winner on the river and bet, I'm figuring one opponent pays off when you scoop and two pay off when you split. Crudely, I estimate you split 2 times for every 1 time you scoop. When you scoop, you win 9 small bets and when you split, you win 4 small bets.

Thus 17/3=5.67 is what you win, on the average.
5.67+1=6.67
1/6.67=0.15

I think you need to hit what you think is a winner 15% of the time, or roughly one time in seven.

I imagine you'll have a higher equity that 15% if you simulate this, but I don't think you'll recognize clear winners that often.

If you want to use the higher simulated equity, I think you have to plan to be a calling station on the river. And in that case, I think you should figure your losing cast as 3 small bets. And then 3/8.67=34.6% is the simulated equity you need.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 65J

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AcTc7c8h	24.13%	55,052	142,431	34,263	81,698	21,241
****	18.93%	42,772	101,571	17,245	74,459	21,129
****	18.96%	42,577	101,600	17,228	74,737	21,237
****	18.94%	42,757	101,685	17,185	74,386	21,304
****	19.04%	43,099	102,310	17,278	74,945	20,758

But you don't have it. (You don't have 34.6% equity, or even close to it).

Perhaps I'm being too harsh. There are some river situations that will be clear bets, others that will be clear folds, but some that will not be clear. And if Hero plays aggressively, there's some chance he can knock out a better hand and thus improve. But note that much of Hero's simulated equity after this flop comes from Hero winning low against 4 opponents, presumably using 7A, 8A, or 87 for low. Are you really going to play one of those for low on the river at a table where four out of eight opponents saw the flop? For the low end, we really should have simulated with all eight starting opponents - and if we do that, Hero has a lower simulated equity.

All things considered, I don't think you can make enough when you can see this hand is a winner to make up for what you lose when it's a loser. You might be able to in a pot-limit or no-limit game, but I don't think you can make this hand/flop pay off for you at a full table fixed-limit game.

I know we don't want to leave money behind on the table by playing too tightly, and I know we do want to play aggressively... but on this particular hand/flop, I like your flop check, and then I'm folding to a turn bet unless the turn is a nine or four (and I'm not wild about some of those).

Buzz