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 Omaha/8 Discussions of Omaha High-Low Split (Eight or Better) Poker.

 07-11-2012, 05:34 PM #61 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: I've been all over. Now Seattle. Posts: 10,564 Re: July miscellaneous thread Oh, gotcha. Yeah, less edge than NLHE against weak opponents for sure. LHE is lower variance, higher "variance".
07-11-2012, 05:41 PM   #62
old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK
Posts: 1,268

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AKQJ10 Not really just that -- and it hearkens back to the classic confusion of variance with EV. E.g. this current thread. I really wish people would be more precise in their use of the term.
I just realised what you typed here. Why on earth would you accuse me of confusing variance with EV? I don't mean to be rude, but it makes me wonder if you understand how variance is calculated.

 07-11-2012, 05:54 PM #63 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: I've been all over. Now Seattle. Posts: 10,564 Re: July miscellaneous thread "The reason limit holdem is considered high variance for a winning player is that the win rate is relatively small." You refer to a relationship that "is considered" to exist, but doesn't. My interpretation was that you're just saying that the variance feels bigger because, when compared to a winrate that's smaller, it might be more times the lower winrate. As discussed in that link, this leads to more and worse downswings, but that doesn't indicate higher variance. I'm no stats genius but I've done enough grad-level stats problems, in pencil, with only a calculator, to be very confident of how variance is calculated. Do we agree that winrate (EV) and variance are independent? Last edited by AKQJ10; 07-11-2012 at 06:04 PM.
07-11-2012, 06:22 PM   #64
old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK
Posts: 1,268

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AKQJ10 "The reason limit holdem is considered high variance for a winning player is that the win rate is relatively small." You refer to a relationship that "is considered" to exist, but doesn't. My interpretation was that you're just saying that the variance feels bigger because, when compared to a winrate that's smaller, it might be more times the lower winrate. As discussed in that link, this leads to more and worse downswings, but that doesn't indicate higher variance. I'm no stats genius but I've done enough grad-level stats problems, in pencil, with only a calculator, to be very confident of how variance is calculated. Do we agree that winrate (EV) and variance are independent?
lol I'm not arguing statistics with a statistician!

07-11-2012, 06:31 PM   #65
Wot

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Winter is coming
Posts: 6,123

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AKQJ10 Split-pot games are inherently lower variance. You're still trying to scoop, but you often win a half- or quarter-pot as a consolation prize. In whole-pot games, you virtually always lose the whole thing when you get outdrawn or coolered.
I was assuming that was the reason (I think that's the classical reason people use).

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AKQJ10 FWIW, my standard devs tend to be around 8 big bets / hour in live LO8, which comes out to about 13 to 16 per 100 hands (at 25 to 33 hands per hour; note that we take the square root of the hours per 100 hands). These are virtually always kill games, so I estimate a big bet based on a certain proportion of kill hands.
I have a std. dev. of 11-12 big bets/hr. at live mid-stakes LHE. I'm not sure what that comes out to per 100, so I can't compare whether LO8 is higher or lower variance than LHE.

 07-11-2012, 06:38 PM #66 Wot     Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Winter is coming Posts: 6,123 Re: July miscellaneous thread I also found this post which discusses LO8 variance compared to LHE. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=879 I play a pretty nitty LO8 style and a slightly LAGGY style (for live) for LHE, so for me LO8 is probably lower variance. I'm not sure on winrate, but if I had to guess, I'd say my current 20/40 hk LO8 game has a higher winrate/hr. than my normal 20/40 LHE game, despite the fewer hands (and despite me being a far better LHE player). The players are quite a bit worse than their LHE counterparts, and obviously the half-kill helps.
 07-12-2012, 11:12 PM #67 centurion   Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 154 Re: July miscellaneous thread Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.
07-12-2012, 11:43 PM   #68
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Los Angeles, California
Posts: 15,106

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mtnracer Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.
Congratulations!

Buzz

07-13-2012, 01:57 AM   #69

Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 990

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mtnracer Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.
congrats

07-13-2012, 06:44 AM   #70
grinder

Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Hyperspace
Posts: 610

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mtnracer Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.
Congratulations!

07-13-2012, 10:10 AM   #71
veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: London, UK
Posts: 2,098

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mtnracer Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.
Congratulations buddy, all the best. Doubt we'll be seeing you around here much for a while

 07-13-2012, 11:00 AM #72 old hand     Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK Posts: 1,268 Re: July miscellaneous thread Congratulations. Have you decided which variant to teach the baby first?
07-13-2012, 10:31 PM   #73
centurion

Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 154

Thanks, all.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RedHot Congratulations. Have you decided which variant to teach the baby first?
His small hands can only hold four cards, so I will stay away from Big O. I think he will prefer short stacking PLO8 and shoving his wheel wraps into me every time I show weakness.

 07-13-2012, 11:30 PM #74 Wot     Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Winter is coming Posts: 6,123 Re: July miscellaneous thread I think babies are born knowing how to play HE. Spoiler: As in, they cry, and then you hold'em.
07-13-2012, 11:42 PM   #75
grinder

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Clear Creek, Australia
Posts: 520

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mtnracer Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.
Congratulations!

Hope Mum and Baby are well.

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