July miscellaneous thread

[AKQJ10]

Oh, gotcha. Yeah, less edge than NLHE against weak opponents for sure. LHE is lower variance, higher "variance".

[RedHot]

Originally Posted by AKQJ10

Not really just that -- and it hearkens back to the classic confusion of variance with EV. E.g. this current thread. I really wish people would be more precise in their use of the term.

I just realised what you typed here. Why on earth would you accuse me of confusing variance with EV? I don't mean to be rude, but it makes me wonder if you understand how variance is calculated.

[AKQJ10]

"The reason limit holdem is considered high variance for a winning player is that the win rate is relatively small."

You refer to a relationship that "is considered" to exist, but doesn't. My interpretation was that you're just saying that the variance feels bigger because, when compared to a winrate that's smaller, it might be more times the lower winrate. As discussed in that link, this leads to more and worse downswings, but that doesn't indicate higher variance.

I'm no stats genius but I've done enough grad-level stats problems, in pencil, with only a calculator, to be very confident of how variance is calculated. Do we agree that winrate (EV) and variance are independent?

[RedHot]

Originally Posted by AKQJ10

"The reason limit holdem is considered high variance for a winning player is that the win rate is relatively small."

You refer to a relationship that "is considered" to exist, but doesn't. My interpretation was that you're just saying that the variance feels bigger because, when compared to a winrate that's smaller, it might be more times the lower winrate. As discussed in that link, this leads to more and worse downswings, but that doesn't indicate higher variance.

I'm no stats genius but I've done enough grad-level stats problems, in pencil, with only a calculator, to be very confident of how variance is calculated. Do we agree that winrate (EV) and variance are independent?

lol I'm not arguing statistics with a statistician!

[Captain R]

Originally Posted by AKQJ10

Split-pot games are inherently lower variance. You're still trying to scoop, but you often win a half- or quarter-pot as a consolation prize. In whole-pot games, you virtually always lose the whole thing when you get outdrawn or coolered.

I was assuming that was the reason (I think that's the classical reason people use).

Originally Posted by AKQJ10

FWIW, my standard devs tend to be around 8 big bets / hour in live LO8, which comes out to about 13 to 16 per 100 hands (at 25 to 33 hands per hour; note that we take the square root of the hours per 100 hands). These are virtually always kill games, so I estimate a big bet based on a certain proportion of kill hands.

I have a std. dev. of 11-12 big bets/hr. at live mid-stakes LHE. I'm not sure what that comes out to per 100, so I can't compare whether LO8 is higher or lower variance than LHE.

[Captain R]

I also found this post which discusses LO8 variance compared to LHE.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=879

I play a pretty nitty LO8 style and a slightly LAGGY style (for live) for LHE, so for me LO8 is probably lower variance.

I'm not sure on winrate, but if I had to guess, I'd say my current 20/40 hk LO8 game has a higher winrate/hr. than my normal 20/40 LHE game, despite the fewer hands (and despite me being a far better LHE player). The players are quite a bit worse than their LHE counterparts, and obviously the half-kill helps.

[Mtnracer]

Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.

[Buzz]

Originally Posted by Mtnracer

Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.

Congratulations!

Buzz

[adacan]

Originally Posted by Mtnracer

Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.

congrats

[bakyka]

Originally Posted by Mtnracer

Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.

Congratulations!

[GrimIsCool]

Originally Posted by Mtnracer

Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.

Congratulations buddy, all the best. Doubt we'll be seeing you around here much for a while

[RedHot]

Congratulations. Have you decided which variant to teach the baby first?

[Mtnracer]

Thanks, all.

Originally Posted by RedHot

Congratulations. Have you decided which variant to teach the baby first?

His small hands can only hold four cards, so I will stay away from Big O. I think he will prefer short stacking PLO8 and shoving his wheel wraps into me every time I show weakness.

[Captain R]

I think babies are born knowing how to play HE.

Spoiler:

As in, they cry, and then you hold'em.

[grunta0]

Originally Posted by Mtnracer

Baby Boy, born July 8th. 8lb 4oz.

Congratulations!

Hope Mum and Baby are well.