Yes.
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It seems like I'd want to get as many bets in as possible before the flop because I have a nut flush possibility,
The thing is, you're not likely to make the nut flush. You'll make the flush when the board is either of the following.
dddnn C(11,3)C(37,2)=109890 ways for this
ddddn C(11,4)=12210 ways for this
ddddd C(11,5)= 462 ways for this
109890+12210+462=122,562 ways you make the diamond flush.
But you don't make the flush if the board is
ddnnn C(11,2)C(37,3)= 427350 ways for this
dnnnn 11*C(37,4) = 726495 ways for this
nnnnn C(37,5)= 435897 ways for this
427350+726495+435897=1,589,742 ways you don't make the diamond flush.
122,562+1,589,742=1,712,304
C(48,5) = 1,712,304 (as a check)
You're almost 13 times as likely to not make a diamond flush as you are to make a diamond flush.
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3 high somewhat-connected cards (I wish the 9 was a T but I don't see it irreperably devaluing my hand - I also wouldn't complain if the 9 and Q were the same suit),
You should rather the 9 be a 3,4,5, or 6.
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and my A and 2, if I'm not mistaken, can make a nut low on more boards than any other 2 cards between A and 8.
Yes, but not more than any three low ranks, seven and below. You like three low cards when you go for low (for counterfeit protection).
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Here's a separate question: Suppose the flop is 72x and I have A5xx with basically zero chance of winning the high.
I would not say so.
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What is my thought process when deciding whether or not to chase my low? Hope that made sense.
It makes sense, but the answer is "it depends."
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Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
Thanks. Since I haven't played it much it's hard to find hands where I've been in specific spots, so I have to post a faked hand:
That's OK, but if we get a discussion going, it's much better if there's only one hand history per thread.
I don't want to click on a link.
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BTN: 43.13 BB (VPIP: 71.43, PFR: 53.57, 3Bet Preflop: 71.43, Hands: 28)
SB: 9.49 BB (VPIP: 48.65, PFR: 5.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74)
BB: 3.75 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
Hero (UTG): 12.45 BB
MP: 59.26 BB (VPIP: 45.35, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 86)
CO: 4.17 BB (VPIP: 42.67, PFR: 4.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 75)
SB posts SB 0.25 BB, BB posts BB 0.5 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 0.75 BB) Hero has A 5 2 7
Lacks high card strength and the 7
is a card you don't usually want, but otherwise a decent starting hand.
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fold, MP calls 0.5 BB, CO calls 0.5 BB, fold, SB calls 0.25 BB, BB checks
Flop: (2 BB, 4 players) 3 A T
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, CO checks
As played, was I correct to fold pre?
I don't know. I wouldn't fold it pre-flop.
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Seems like a no-brainer that far out of position with basically no chance of winning the high.
I wouldn't say "basically no chance."
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Suppose I'd had that hand in the BB though, I get that flop and the SB checks. Using two cards from my hand I have A235 - a 4 gives me the nut low (with a small chance of having to chop it), but what do a 6, 7 or 8 give me? A2356, A2357 and A2358 are the second-nut low only losing if someone has a 2 and a 4 correct?
Correct.
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So what's my thought here, do I bet to try to build a pot?
I wouldn't.
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Am I looking to try to see a cheap turn?
Not necessarily. I think it depends on your opponents. I realize that's vague, but you just have to play poker.
Buzz