4-8 O8 Live. (Cliff note at bottom.)

I hold Ad3xQdQx on the button and fourth caller of the BB. SB folds.

BB raises preflop to $8 and we have 5 seeing a flop with a $42 pot.

(I feel good about my play preflop. I don't want to raise but think it is worth seeing a flop in postiton)

Flop is 2s4s6h. BB bet $4. Four callers.

(I might raise here with nut low. I just call because I don't want any folding yet.)

Turn is 5d. BB bets $8. UTG raise to $16. Two other players call. I fold my wheel.

(Board is 4 to the wheel. With an opening bet, raise and two callers I am sure that getting quartered is the best case situation. Splitting the low three ways is likely. Also with 4 others, I'm sure I'm against a higher straight and flush draw.)

River is a a blank. BB bets. UTG raises. Two remaining players call and BB call. BB shows 8 high straight for high. 3-5 takes the low.

Cliff Notes: Called 5 handed single raised pot pre-flop. Flop nut low. 1 bet, 4 callers. Turn gives me wheel. I fold to 2 bets because board has 4 to the wheel and I thought best outcome is getting quartered. Ends up I would have won 1/2 of a huge pot.

Did I mess up this hand?

Yes.

I understand that you hold A3xQQx and there are three limpers in front of you.

Fine.

Fine. When you just call, your opponents may incorrectly assume you don't have a good hand. And they may bet accordingly. In other words, they may bet and raise with worse hands than they would bet and raise with if they thought you had a good hand/flop fit.

What I mean is since you didn't raise, neither BB nor UTG may give you credit for having a wheel.

Also, since you didn't raise the flop bet, neither one of these two callers may give you credit for having a wheel. In other words, when your opponents bet and raise and call double bets, they're not just playing their cards... they're putting you on less of a good fit with this flop and turn than you actually have.

You're giving your opponents credit for having better hands/flop fits than they actually may have. They should probably realize you may be playing too passively, but they evidently don't.

And as you can see, you were wrong.

The board only has three wheel cards. Sixes are not wheel cards.

Yes.

Buzz

as a rule of thumb: in a fixed limit game, don't fold a wheel made with two live cards from your hand (as opposed to a live card and a duplicating, board pairing card)

you won't always get the right odds (I'm talking about having more than your fair share of pot equity) to jam, but surely get the right odds (I'm talking about pot odds) to call...

2-4-5-6 isn't four to a wheel

with 5 people in the hand getting quartered is a PROFIT. I could be mistaken but with 5 people in the hand and $62 in the pot even if you can see opponents cards and actually KNOW you are getting sixthed you still have the odds to call down unless about $60 more goes into the pot EACH. This is possible but very unlikely.

In short, yes you messed up unless you actually believe there is 100% chance you are getting 8thed or that both streets will be capped and you will be sixthed.

Preflop: A3QQ with nut diamonds is a reasonable starting hand, but your low is dead if an ace or three hits the board. Queens can make for a strong hand here as well, and your diamonds give you straight flush potential.

Flop: You have to put somebody on 35xx for a straight on the flop with a redraw to a wheel, but here you have nut low.

Turn: The 5 on the turn gives you a wheel and the player(s) you put on straights on the flop are now counterfeit. You have potential players who may have straights above a wheel or wrappers who will call you here, but you have to deal with the outside chance that a 3 might come and counterfeit your wheel.

River: You are guaranteed some portion of the pot if you stick around and can only be quartered by someone else with A3xx. If the player(s) you put on 35xx don't have an ace, they can't hurt you. You're not likely to be quartered here. Instead of folding, I would think about raising.

1. Critical board-reading error has already been noted. Don't beat yourself up. But do practice. Practice. Practice.

2. I'm raising limpers for value in the cutoff or on the button with As3QQ in any game where people are limping A4, 32, and assorted other junky hands. This seems to be a minority view, and i'd like to invite commentary on why this is a leak, if anyone believes it is.

3. Some reactions:

More concisely, people tend to check to the raiser. You're buying yourself a free card, but you may not want a free card.

That said, i'm still raising this for value. My low is somewhat fragile and i don't really want to give free cards to various low draws hoping for me to brick. Plus O8 players can be more easily scared than LHE players (who are still easily scared), and all kinds of turns could prevent a bet into you. In that case, you will have just wasted value. Again, if anyone wants to argue that i'm leaking, i'm open to hearing it.


It's obviously game-dependent, but i don't typically see live O8 villians doing this much hand reading. They're likely just 0th-level players with a straight or a NL, particularly the raiser, or occasionally combo draws with clubs or wraps or something. Obviously if your read is that your opponents are savvier then give them due respect, but we have no reason to think this aggression is based on their read of you. They just like their hands.


I didn't check the math but it's a good rule of thumb: the fractional bets that you lose by getting quartered or worse pale in comparison to the money already in the pot. Keep in mind that it may not be 5-handed on the river but still... you have to be pretty darn sure that you're getting sixthed and/or pretty darn sure it's going to go for multiple bets each round to even think about folding a fraction of the nuts. And that's if there really were a four to a wheel!



Not really. They could have plenty of stuff besides 53. The callers could have gutshots, big FDs, small FDs, sets, two pair, top pair, overpairs, etc. etc. The bettor and raiser probably have more, but not necessarily the nut high.

That's a very optimistic view. Don't you think that A3 + any clubs leads that flop? Why on earth would two players' cold calling range not include A3?!

A value 3bet is marginal at best. 5-handed (if we hadn't folded) it would probably be acceptable, but with all that action there's a good chance we're getting quartered, and we might drive out the bettor with a hand we want to call us.

It's my 2nd post in this thread.
This one will be about the flop play.

I think it's a tough spot. Knowing when to raise and when to call in similar spots isn't trivial. I second guess myself all the time in these spots.

Giving it some thought, I believe hero should raise the flop.

After flopping the nut low+overpair in a multiway raised preflop pot, hero needs to risk value the times he shares the low and virtually dead for high (for example, when BB has A35*) for the potential to scoop or win 3/4 or a big pot.

Hero does that by raising and putting pressure on the players in the middle.
"they already called a bet, so they're not folding" - you might say, well:

1) After hero raises, BB might (wrongly?) cooperate and 3-bet stuff like A23J.
That should put enough pressure to thin the field - based on card removal, it's improbable that everyone hit this flop.

2) Small stakes players DO often call a bet only to then fold to a single raise. I see it a lot.

What hero does is overplaying his hand in the eyes of the players in the middle.

I'll take a wild guess that at least some of them would "never raise with just the low" (in their eyes QQ on this board is nothing - makes sense, but also a misconception), so even if they saw hero "overplaying" hands before, they will just be forced to fold immediately or to a follow up bet on the turn unless they have 35 or A3 themselves (or they caught some hand/draw on the turn), because when they put themselves in hero's shoes, a raise should mean A35 (or maybe A3+set or 35+set or 357*).

That's what we do (putting ourselves in the other player's shoes) and what we act upon, even unconsciously. we think what we would have done instead of what villian likes to do.

Hero's "story" will be more reliable id he raises the flop and then bet the turn.

Hero can tell a different story by calling the flop and raising a board pairing turn, representing a full house. but when hero doesn't actually pair with the board, villians are more likely to. and when a villian catches trips or better, now he's REALLY not folding.

When the board pairs to give hero queens up, I want one or two opponents, not three or four.

Start applying pressure. I've seen players make the ultimate mistake in similar spots. they'd call incorrectly with 2 pair on the flop and turn, only to (again, incorrectly) fold to a single bet on the river, putting the other player on the nuts (so why did you chase your 4 outer to half the pot to begin with?)

Raise the flop. If nothing changes - bet the turn. If nothing changes - bet the river. Do your part and it will be up to them to do their part - make mistakes.