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Originally Posted by ngFTW
that's not equity, that i beleive is what you consider to be outs to improving on the turn divided by the number of unknown cards on the turn. hence .23 is then the percentage of the time the turn card is a scoop card. its not equity(the shortened expression of average pot equity)
I didn't say 0.23 was equity. I wrote
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I like to approximate. I figure your hand is worth about 10 scoop equivalent outs. That means the odds are roughly 34 to 10 against you. The equity advocates will no doubt be screaming about my idiocy at this, because if you run a simulation, your hand will have more than an equity of 0.23.
For what it's worth, I'm sorry I wrote "The equity advocates will no doubt be screaming about my idiocy at this."
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you imply we repeatedly disagree and with regard to equity its likely because you don't seem to understand what equity is.
I think equity is the percentage of time a specific hand will end up winning against another specific hand.
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
For what it's worth, I use equities... but mostly for comparisons.
But I don't use equities to compare a known hand to an unknown hand. (I don't see how it's possible to do that accurately).
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with regard to ranges i believe its also a result of misunderstanding.
Perhaps it is.
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implicit whenever you are speculating about the outcome of a poker hand, and stating that you have 10 scoops for instance is speculating about the outcome, is speculating about what possible cards the other player(s) is(are) holding.
I didn't do that this time for my approximation. Instead I thought about cards I'd like to see if I were playing Hero's hand, cards I thought would help Hero's hand. And I thought about cards I wouldn't like to see.
I just wanted to have a better idea whether Hero should raise or just call.
I realize Hero will lose with the seemingly helpful cards some of the time... and I realize Hero will win with the seemingly unhelpful cards some of the time. The positive effect and negative effect are not expected to exactly cancel each other, but for the purpose of estimating whether Hero should raise or just call, I thought it was close enough.
And after I knew what the turn card was, I revised my approximation, figuring Hero roughly had 4 outs for high, (and if Hero won high with one of those 4 outs on the river, that would be a scoop). I realize some of the time Hero will get the river card he wants and not scoop, but I also realize some of the time Hero will get a river card he doesn't want and will still win all or part of the pot.
For low, I figured Hero had 16 outs, but since, with this action, Hero should expect to get quartered and sixthed some of the time, I figured those 16 low outs were not worth half the pot, but were closer to being worth four tenths of the pot on the average. 16 times 4/10 is 6.4. I rounded that off to 6 and added it to the 4 to get the 10 I used.
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providing (assigning) a range is making that speculation more explicit. providing a range is enumerating those possible cards.
I think I see what you're trying to do and I don't want to discourage you.
But what if I can not accurately assign a range?
I don't want you, or anyone, to misunderstand. I do try to put my opponents on cards whenever possible.
Seems like accurately assigning a range would probably be better than the method I used, if I were able to assign a range and then calculate equity while I'm sitting in a game.
But I'm not intellectually capable of doing all that.
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you mostly seem dismissive of range
Correct. I don't mean to offend you, but truthfully I'm unable, in general, to assign ranges while playing Omaha-8.
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soley due to concerns with accuracy.
OK. That's a fair assessment. I'm not able to accurately assess ranges.
utg +3 had AQ65 and the dealer had A978. I can't see that pre-flop, on the first betting round, and I still can't see after this flop, on the second betting round.
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accept range to be an approximation, for which there are good and bad approximations, with good approximations being more precise then bad ones.
I agree good approximations are better and more precise than bad ones.
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And at least a range that badly approximates representing an opponent's possible holdings will accurately represent the combinatorics.
I don't follow.
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i understand equity and range as fundamental instruments necessary to establish expectation, and expectation as a necessary concept to formulate strategy and to analyze poker.
That sounds fine if you can do it. But, as explained, I have difficulty assessing range.
At any rate, rightly or wrongly, I used a different approach.
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its fine with me if you don't embrace these as fundamental. its fine with me if you take a different approach to analyzing poker. Its a problem when you post things that are clearly wrong. deriving .23 from 10/40 and calling it .23 equity is a problem.
If I post something that I discover is wrong, then I'll make a correction. If somebody else discovers my mistake before I do, I'll usually acknowledge that person, perhaps make an apology, and also make the correction. (You must know I do that).
Please read what I wrote. I did not write and I did not mean to imply the way to find equity is divide the number of scoop equivalent outs by the total number of unknown cards. That would just be wrong.
I wrote
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I like to approximate. I figure your hand is worth about 10 scoop equivalent outs. That means the odds are roughly 34 to 10 against you. The equity advocates will no doubt be screaming about my idiocy at this, because if you run a simulation, your hand will have more than an equity of 0.23.
Buzz