Good post except for this. If you know you're behind not close to a value raise.
You have 4 scoop outs he has Ks,Ts, 9s, As, 2s. If you know you're behind with nut draws let in the worse draws with a call.
Some situations you know you're behind, but I don't see how you could know that here. What a bad way to play a flopped straight. I raise here for sure.

Yeah, you're right. I guessed and guessed wrong.

However, a key assumption there was that you get called behind. I forgot about the intermediate trapped guy, but getting called by someone else would make it four ways. Assuming the same ranges I assumed above for the fourth guy, you'll have about 23%, so you're not giving up much--if you know you're behind and don't knock anyone out, worst case. (Of course if you knew you wouldn't knock someone out and can't raise for value, there'd be no reason to raise.)

I agree.

I agree.

He would have lost $40 more than necessary if he made that turn raise in a game where UTG was sufficiently stacked, however he didn't actually lose $40 more because UTG ran out of chips.

But he did lose $25 more than he should have (in my opinion) because UTG managed to get all in on the last betting round. Looking at it one way, the raise is not disastrous. Looking at it another way, raising shows a lack of card reading ability and also a lack of understanding of fresh money odds (in my opinion).

No.

Correct (see above).

No. Not in my opinion.

I read UTG's play as probably (but not absolutely) indicative of a turned set of queens or a slow played (for one round) strong flop fit... probably a flopped straight, but possibly a flopped set.

You, and various other posters don't see it that way. But none of you have written anything to make me change my mind.

Meh.

I think you're missing the two points. And I don't see how raising on the third betting round "saves" the pot.

(I do see how if Hero's opponents are bumbling idiots Hero might show an increased profit by raising).

I don't see how Hero is saving a big pot by raising on the third betting round. I'm not recommending Hero fold. I just don't think Hero has favorable odds to initiate fresh money into the pot.

I can see the argument for playing aggressively. But in this particular case I think (1) Hero should read UTG for slow playing (for one round) a strong flop fit... probably a flopped straight but possibly a flopped set. And in addition, (2) since Hero is drawing to the nut low, I think Hero should endeavor to not knock out opponents who might be drawing to non-nut lows.

Rightly or wrongly I clearly feel strongly about this. (This is my sixth post in this thread). I think there are two important lessons here. One is in hand reading and the other is in understanding fresh money odds. Alas, you seem to have missed them both.

I read UTG's third round bet as indicative of a slow played flop fit. I don't think it's a good time for Hero to raise, risking a re-raise and risking knocking out two opponents who might pay off if Hero makes his draw.

I saw by your earlier post (#23) that you disagreed with my position. And I saw that Rush agreed with you. I respect your right to disagree.

Buzz

It's fairly nice spot for a raise since our 6th nut high hand really needs protection and at the same time it's not required for either the UTG or the BB to be a "bumbling idiot".

For the UTG monikrazy provided a fairly extensive list of hands that a variety of opponents would deem bet worthy. And for the BB's perspective quite a few hands that have a lot of outs to beat us simply won't look too desirable (out of hands that would call 1 bet but fold to 2 bets).

For example if i were to make a thread from BBs perspective OTT holding A569 looking at UTG open, call and raise, i severely doubt i would get a flurry of "standard call, not spew"s...

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: J 8 7 Q

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
As 5s 6d 9d	3.50%	0	0	0	33,745	16,888
T9	63.90%	242,092	507,397	19,180	7,444	2,623
30%	16.31%	34,479	35,489	12,267	101,337	28,773
30%	16.29%	34,343	35,377	12,297	101,147	28,844

Just going by Buzz's read of the UTG...

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: J 8 7 Q

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
As 5s 6d 9d	13.02%	28,059	86,225	8,639	33,210	16,740
T9, QQ, JJ, 77, 88	52.39%	213,156	403,132	11,143	6,967	2,470
30%	17.28%	38,570	44,099	12,338	101,920	28,930
30%	17.31%	38,755	44,412	12,433	101,811	28,793

...and we would have to assume the raiser likely has something similar with most likely a better low than A5.

All we need for the BB is a minimal amount of risk aversion and him knowing that it's not good to draw to non nut out's and in the case of the A569 we can possibly clean Aces, deuces, fours, fives, sixes, nines and tens from the long list of river cards that might make us lose the whole pot or a share of it when we have the best hand OTT. Our biggest steal is a fairly standard fold for the BB.

Good point. I think that's the argument for raising.

You don't seem to see that there's also an argument for not raising.

Yes. That was an exaggeration. But I think raising the turn is underestimating one's opponent, a classic mistake.

Is it not clear how I read UTG's play? I think UTG probably has a flopped straight, slow played for one round. Other strong possibilities (but not as likely as a flopped straight) are a turned set of queens or a flopped set. It's not impossible UTG has less but I wouldn't bet on it.

That's what I honestly think, rightly or wrongly. That's how I read UTG. I think BB, possibly not reading UTG for the flopped straight and Hero for top two and the nut low draw, might have called a single big bet with a losing hand (and then might have called another single big bet on the river) but will probably fold such a hand to a double big bet.

And after BB folds to the double big bet, I fully expect UTG to re-raise, making it also a double big bet to MP. I think MP will fold a losing hand with which he might have called a river bet to the double big bet on the turn.

(So by raising, we lose two possible big bets from BB and one possible big bet from MP... but we do "protect" our top two pairs, a hand that I think is currently the second best hand at he table).
That's my opinion. You're welcome to your opinion.

I think BB might have called a single big bet with a losing hand but will probably fold such a hand to a double big bet.

You lost me. I don't know what "OTT" means. ("over the top"?) And where did the A569 come from?

Neither of your simulations represents the way I'm reading this hand.

That's not what I thought (or think).

Again, I don't know what OTT means.

BB already checked. BB might be "iffy." If so, BB probably folds to a double big bet but might call to see the river cheaply for one more big bet, and then being in that far might call for another big bet on the river.

And if MP is also "iffy," MP, who has already called a single big bet and might also call on the river for another big bet, may fold to a double big bet when the action gets to him for the second time on the turn.

Again, that's what I honestly think, rightly or wrongly. That's how I read BB, UTG, and MP. You're welcome to your opinion.

Buzz

OTT= on the turn

(Coming from someone who rarely knows what these *abb. stand for).

*abbreviation

Thanks. (I got that abb. stood for abbreviations).

OK. I added three new acronyms to our FAQ.
OTF = on the flop
OTT = on the turn
OTR = on the river

Buzz

Call, raise whatever. But when it's close in poker be aggro

At higher stakes where less slowplay and more aggro and semi-bluff, I'd range him more at QJ, QQ, Q8/Q7, KQTx-ish and less with T9,set and raise probably better. At lower stakes, less semi-bluffs and weaker end of range but more chance of slowplay so more likely to call but still strange line.

BTW, not to single out OP, because this applies to anyone who posts live HHs, but it really should be an expectation that you give us necessary information in the OP rather than making us hunt for it. Most people probably think I go overboard with formatting, but at the very least it should be expected to give pot size on each relevant round.

IMO OP's not giving pot size should get a polite one line response asking for a repost of the hand with pot size, nothing else.

+1000

This is SO imperative.

Ive found, whether it's holdem, omaha, stud, when you feel something in your gut that you wanna raise but you're *just not quite sure*? Do it. And of all the games, it works best in stud high with O8 being a not-so-far-behind second. Sometimes these little added bets and small bet raises that you throw out there, yield huge dividends. In other words, the reward is worth the risk. Don't be a caller, not when it's close.