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Is this game beatable? Is this game beatable?

04-23-2014 , 01:34 PM
My local cardroom spreads a $4/$8 half-kill Omaha-9 (yes, that's NINE) game every day. The kill makes it a $6/$12 game after any scoop of a pot $40+. The winner must post the $6 kill blind. There is a $5 drop for the game, of which $1 is for miscellaneous jackpots (one of which is that the high hand gets to spin a wheel every 2 hours for a prize between $10 and $200).

One room bonus: if you are one of the first 9 players in the game, you can buy $150 in chips for $100.

With the larger number of split pots, a high drop, and essentially a $6 "tax" on scoops, how big of an advantage do you need to beat the game? Are there any strategy adjustments you need to make for the structure of the game?
Is this game beatable? Quote
04-23-2014 , 03:27 PM
Buy in for $100, get $150 in chips and cash out? Seems the only way to beat this game. Maybe if the players are especially bad, and you are especially good you can beat it. Some strategy adjustments are to tighten up. In a game with no rake hands that are marginally +ev to play become -ev in highly raked games.
Is this game beatable? Quote
04-23-2014 , 03:39 PM
Play even less high only hands?
Is this game beatable? Quote
04-23-2014 , 05:05 PM
Is that a $5 maximum drop? Like, 5% capped at $5? Or mandatory $5 regardless of pot size? Also do they operate no flop no drop?
Is this game beatable? Quote
04-23-2014 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adacan
Buy in for $100, get $150 in chips and cash out?
Have to play for four hours to keep the extra $50.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS
Is that a $5 maximum drop? Like, 5% capped at $5? Or mandatory $5 regardless of pot size? Also do they operate no flop no drop?
No flop no drop is in effect, but all pots are raked $5, regardless of size if there is a flop.

The two times I have played the game (which is generally populated by bad, though not necessarily loose, players), I have generally played very tight and only entered multiway pots, playing fewer high-only (broadway wrap/high pair) hands. Stealing in LP against some players seems to work given the drop policy, though some players will still defend their blinds too frequently.

Is it a better idea to try to primarily play the kill pots due to the higher stakes and increased level of dead money? When the game is loose, it seems somewhat beatable, though not for a particularly good rate (I play it only because it is close to my home), but when it's populated by regs, even bad ones, it seems like the rake is just vacuuming chips off the table.
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04-23-2014 , 06:27 PM
With it being 9 or better you have to get rid of most of the high-only hands, and suited A2 or A3W type hands are even stronger than they usually are. I'd say the game is definitely beatable if it's loose because the tighter players will get half so much more often.
Is this game beatable? Quote
04-23-2014 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turn Prophet
Is it a better idea to try to primarily play the kill pots due to the higher stakes and increased level of dead money?
I don't think this is a good adjustment to make. Just play good hands and you'll do fine.
Is this game beatable? Quote
04-23-2014 , 09:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turn Prophet
My local cardroom spreads a $4/$8 half-kill Omaha-9 (yes, that's NINE) game every day.
In what city is your local card room? (Just curious).

As I recall, with an 8-low requirement, the board enables low 60% or about three times out of five (without consideration of Hero's hand). Also as I recall, with an 9-low requirement, the board enables low 74% or about three times out of four (also without consideration of Hero's hand).

Quote:
The kill makes it a $6/$12 game after any scoop of a pot $40+. The winner must post the $6 kill blind. There is a $5 drop for the game, of which $1 is for miscellaneous jackpots (one of which is that the high hand gets to spin a wheel every 2 hours for a prize between $10 and $200).

One room bonus: if you are one of the first 9 players in the game, you can buy $150 in chips for $100.
I like the bonus. However, I don't like the pressure of getting to the card room early enough to be one of the first nine players in the game.

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With the larger number of split pots, a high drop, and essentially a $6 "tax" on scoops,
The kill post belongs to the winner of the next hand, and posting it or collecting it more or less evens out over the course of the session. If blind posters tend to not defend their blinds, some players probably play too loosely and aggressively trying to pick up the dead money... and that affects play. How it affects play depends on the various players who become involved.

You have to be involved in a hand to take advantage of the mistakes of others, but paradoxically, you have to be careful about making a mistake yourself by getting involved in the hand. Maybe you ultimately have to estimate whether the errors of some others in the game are substantial enough to make an error by risking getting involved yourself. This is always the dilemma, but when the kill is in effect, the dynamics are generally different than normally.

(I don't know if that all makes sense or not).

Quote:
how big of an advantage do you need to beat the game?
I don't know. I think it's like any other game in that if you're more skilled than your opponents, then you have an edge over them. Is your edge big enough in this game to beat the rake? I think that depends on how much of an edge you have over the other participants in the game.

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Are there any strategy adjustments you need to make for the structure of the game?
I think probably the game is still very flop oriented. That is, you should still want your starting hand to fit with the flop, but whereas with an 8 low, you more or less expect two or three low ranks on the flop (without consideration of your own cards) about 62.8%, with a 9 low requirement, you should expect a flop with two or three low ranks (without consideration of your own cards) about 84.3%
  • 32*28*24/6+32*28*20/2+6*8*28=13888
    13888/22100=62.8% for 8 or better

    36*32*28/6+36*32*20/2+6*9*32=18624
    18624/22100=84.3% for 9 or better
And that means seeing the flop when your hand has a nice low draw is about 4/3 more appealing in 9 or better low than in 8 or better low.
And that means seeing the flop when your hand doesn't have a nice low draw is less appealing in 9 or better low than in 8 or better low.

But even though low is more possible, you still should not be playing crap for low. For example, **35 and **25 are still poor pre-flop low draws.

You still should generally want your starting hand to contain an ace and you still should generally shun middle cards.

Buzz
Is this game beatable? Quote
04-26-2014 , 04:11 AM
What percent of players roughly see flop?
When you play the kill after scooping, are you last to act?
Does the $40+ pot include rake?

I played a game once where a player liked to raise the kill pre-flop. It made many players uncomfortable and frequently blinds and/or limpers folded. This 'dead money' ended up covering the rake and tip. Frequently these kill pots were the largest in the game.

You feel the kill is a tax on winning. You might do better if you consider it a bonus and a chance to 'double up' your winnings. Stay on those hands a little longer than usual.

I would probably play more 'high hands', especially if most players have tightened up for low only type hands. Make them pay to play until low is eligible (which won't happen 15% of time according to BUZZ data). Nut flush and top boat should do well.

Whether this is beatablle depends on what percent hands make flop and how many make it to showdown (percentage and player number).

I do understand what you mean about rake / dealer only sure big winners, and they are taking near $100 off table every hr.
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04-27-2014 , 04:38 PM
But what about the additional bet he had to call preflop when you capped it?

Seriously, I guess the odds do make the call not as bad, but it really doesn't make it good either. He has a RIO hand in worst position with a terrible low draw against two strong ranges. And he can't know both have AA; that helped his equity in this hand because neither hand can hit a better set. Give one of the raisers instead A3KK, A2QQ type hands and I'm guessing his equity goes way down.
Is this game beatable? Quote
04-27-2014 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
But what about the additional bet he had to call preflop when you capped it?

Seriously, I guess the odds do make the call not as bad, but it really doesn't make it good either. He has a RIO hand in worst position with a terrible low draw against two strong ranges. And he can't know both have AA; that helped his equity in this hand because neither hand can hit a better set. Give one of the raisers instead A3KK, A2QQ type hands and I'm guessing his equity goes way down.
Against our exact hands, his equity is 30%. Against two top 5% ranges, it goes down only to 27%. It is (barely) enough immediate equity even if he knows I'm going to cap it.

That said, I would have definitely folded his hand in that spot. But I don't know if that's actually the right play or if I'm just too risk averse. (This is somewhat like the most common spot where I still feel very uncertain about what range I should be defending, which is in the BB in a raised kill; i.e. I need to call $20 with $10 already invested.)

The bigger point is that the kill turned playing this garbage hand from a clear mistake into not a clear mistake (but not a clear play either)....it is now just a play that is probably about EV neutral but creates more variance for everyone.
Is this game beatable? Quote
04-28-2014 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1cnr
Make them pay to play until low is eligible (which won't happen 15% of time according to BUZZ data).
I calculated with a nine qualifier for low the board doesn't enable low 26% of the time (without consideration of Hero's cards).

As a comparison, with an eight qualifier for low, the board doesn't enable low 40% of the time (without consideration of Hero's cards).

It's the flop that isn't favorable for low (not two or three low ranks) about 15.7% in nine or better.

Buzz
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