Originally Posted by Freewill1978
Sometimes it's possible to eliminate that possibility just by looking at the perceived ranges of the players in the hand. If one of them is really tight preflop, and 98 makes a nut straight, the tight player probably doesn't have the nuts for high. Which makes him more likely to have the nut low.
You would think that....
Once I somehow rivered the nut high with A985 (not sure how I was playing that here -- let's say I posted in position) to make a backdoor straight -- say, 47Q-T-6. A competent, aggressive, but somewhat loose player led the river. He would often lead here with a set, a nut low plus pair, etc. An unknown called. Obviously, I raised. Aggressive player 3bet. Unknown called. I tanked.
I reasoned that the aggressive player, perceiving me as also aggressive, would probably 3bet something like A266 or A35x here. Most likely he and the caller would be splitting low. If I were unlucky, someone else would have 98 and I would win a quarter. 4 bets would be a cap, so only one more bet could go in. Getting quartered in a three-way pot would cost a quarter bet, whereas I stood to win half a bet. Getting 2:1 on that last bet, I only had to win half 1/3 of the time to make it profitable. So I went ahead and capped.
The aggressive player showed some junky 98 hand. The caller showed A398 for two-thirds.
(I just enjoy sharing the story, but don't generalize from it. 98 is going to get quartered a lot less than A2 or A3, of course.)