ok - i will adjust it and we can see how it changes

new parameters
board: 5sQs6h
hero: Ad3dAc6s
p1: 15%-20%
p2: 55%
p3: 20%-30%
p4: 20%-30%

How often does at least one player match hand range A2?
18%

parameters
board: 5sQs6h
hero: Ad3dAc6s
p1: 15%-20%
p2: 55%
p3: 25%
p4: 25%

How often does at least one player match hand range A2?
44.8%

parameters
board: 5sQs6h
hero: Ad3dAc6s
p1: 6%-20%
p2: 55%
p3: 25%
p4: 25%

How often does at least one player match hand range A2?
52.2%

parameters
board: 5sQs6h
hero: Ad3dAc6s
p1: 6%-20%
p2: 55%
p3: 20%-30%
p4: 20%-30%

How often does at least one player match hand range A2?
32.7%



i think one of these last 2 sims is pretty close to what you wanted, you will see the final sim is rather similar to the result I got using 4 40% hands.

So when PPT uses the same ranges, it automatically factors that in, right? I guess I'm just not seeing the advantage of having the likelihood vs. having the equities from PPT.

And then technically you should factor what Utg is gonna donk there, but its pretty wide I suppose. Would be sweet if you could assign him a range of hands that have x% equity vs. our ranges and then see how we did against that, but don't imagine that's possible.

I suppose you could use your result to figure out a rough folding % to use in an EV calculation. It's more mathy than I can do on a phone though (I think).

card removal is probably most helpful in situations like the previous example, where hero has a decision with several opponents left to act and is not able to put them on a very specific range from pre-flop

perhaps we do not know opponent tendencies either, maybe everyone just sat down


We may actually able be able to do this. I'm not there yet though.

This one? What adjustments are you making to how you play this hand based on the 24.8% number?

Not trying to be a dick, just hashing out where the value is.

Or, assuming we just sat down w/ AA36 hand and factor in unknown utg limp, etc. and results are 35% one of others has A2. Now what? What does that mean for our decision?

This is a pure pre-flop simulation independent of any actions. It is up to Hero to decide how he wants to best profit from the information.

How we play it will of course differ for limit vs. pot limit, as we may not be able to isolate successfully in limit. Pot limit we can expect to isolate with greater success, and I would be raising.

I posted a couple of responses in that thread, with various simulations. One of the reasons I made this thread was to stop cluttering it with too much math theory.


initially i thought shoving would be the most profitably play but after running a lot of simulations i decided calling and folding to a shove from btn was probably superior


note: i don't really want to rehash that same hand in this thread, though I will welcome others with related concepts

Something like this can be done.



- Dan @ PPT

P.S. I'm enjoying watching this thread.

thanks for your comments Dan

some real cool stuff for us to work with