Card Removal and Other Sims - Omaha 8 Poker Forum

monikrazy · 07-29-2012, 04:19 PM

i'm no true expert, but i've been working on crunching some serious numbers lately as part of a project.. i have been using odds oracle

in this thread i will try to answer various questions members have about card removal in various situations, explaining my methodology and looking for suggestions to improve it

i will start with a question from Munchausen below

Quote:

Originally Posted by Munchausen

If you can run a sim with 2 players at 25%, and one random : what are the chances of someone holding A2 with AA63 removed from the deck, I would be very interested.

You would still have to remove another 20% (estimate obv) of the A2 cases because of play of hand features (Good A2 get 3bet or donked by SB etc) but that would give you the some estimate of the A2 likelihood.

monikrazy · 07-29-2012, 04:27 PM

HERO has AA63
9 players have 4 random cards

Question: How many players match hand range A2xx?

Answer: 0 players: 84.7%
1 player: 14.8%
2 players: .48%

Munchausen · 07-29-2012, 04:42 PM

Thank you! This type of analysis is very helpful - can you explain your methodology so you can teach us to fish - if not, I fear we will be at the fishery every day.

monikrazy · 07-29-2012, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FRGCardinal

Villain is aggressive in spots and rarely shows down a loser. Has flamed me as a fish for hitting my redraw to a boat after a capped turn where we both had Broadway. He is up >$50 in this session when this hand unfolds;

Cake Poker, $1/$2 Limit Omaha H/L Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13603352

Preflop: Hero is BB with T

9

T

5

UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, BTN folds, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: (5 SB) 2

T

A

(5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, SB folds, Hero thinks, "Goddamnit, is everyone playing a fistful of wheel cards??"

Turn: (4.5 BB) 4

(4 players)
Hero pukes and checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Given the history, is this too nitty of a fold?

Question: Given Hero hand and board, how often does another player in the hand have 35xx.

For the sake of convenience I will assume MP2 and UTG+2 both limped top 25% hands. This theoretical range is probably weaker than their real range given they called a flop bet.

Answer:
0 player: 91%
1 player: 8.8%
2 players: .117%

Munchausen · 07-29-2012, 04:45 PM

Also in the op post it should be 8 random hands (9 dealt in including hero)

monikrazy · 07-29-2012, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Munchausen

Also in the op post it should be 8 random hands (9 dealt in including hero)

HERO has AA63
8 players have 4 random cards

Question: How many players match hand range A2xx?

Answer: 0 players: 86.4%
1 player: 13.24%
2 players: .387%

ngFTW · 07-30-2012, 02:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monikrazy

HERO has AA63
8 players have 4 random cards

Question: How many players match hand range A2xx?

Answer: 0 players: 86.4%
1 player: 13.24%
2 players: .387%

when you write "A2xx" i am pretty sure you are indicating any hand with an Ace with a 2 and atleast 2 of a single suit, suited to the 2. this is a subset of every hand possible with atleast an ace and a 2. if it was suited to the Ace it would be Ax2:xx, and A2:xx if atleast single suited but not nec. to any 2 of the particular cards.

ie.
A2 (no conditions except the 4 cards contain atleast one Ace and one 2)= 17316 possible hands
A2(when AcAd3d6s is dead(known))=7574 possible hands
A2xx(when AcAd3d6s is dead(known) and atleast 2 of the 4 cards are of the same suit, suited to the 2)=3406
A2:xx(when AcAd3d6s is dead(known))=6826

with all that said, it should be clear that the 13.24% and the .387% refer to the subset A2xx and not any A2.

any A2(when AcAd3d6s is dead(known))
1 player: 27.3%
2 players: 1.9%

any A2(when AcAd3d6s is dead(known)as is Qs5s6d)
1 player: 30.4%
2 players: 2.5%
what i provided in the thread

ngFTW · 07-30-2012, 03:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monikrazy

Question: Given Hero hand and board, how often does another player in the hand have 35xx.

For the sake of convenience I will assume MP2 and UTG+2 both limped top 25% hands. This theoretical range is probably weaker than their real range given they called a flop bet.

Answer:
0 player: 91%
1 player: 8.8%
2 players: .117%

i happen to have an opinion on this one too.

i get a similar result as 8.8% but it is to the question-"how often is 35 (i didn't use 35xx, which is fewer hands) in the top 25% range, when we treat hero's and the board cards as known(dead).

if 2 players each have that range then i get that atleast 1 player has 35 in his range 16.4% of the time,
both players(2) have it .4%,
neither player (0) has it 83% of the time.

PokerSeemsFun · 07-30-2012, 08:05 AM

6-max
Hero has A2(3,4)B. What are the risk/chance of running into AAxx? A2?

HU
Hero has A2xx. What are the risk/chance of running into AAxx? A2?

**Buzz** · 07-30-2012, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monikrazy

HERO has AA63
8 players have 4 random cards

I don't understand what you mean by "8 players have 4 random cards." That doesn't make sense to me.

8 players would have 8 hands. That's 32 cards.

Oh... I see... Each of 8 players has 4 random cards. It honestly wasn't clear to me when I wrote my response. (This is an edit).

Quote:

Question: How many players match hand range A2xx?

Answer: 0 players: 86.4%
1 player: 13.24%
2 players: .387%

The answers you have given are for 4 players, each having 4 random cards when Hero has AA36 with unspecified suits.

Buzz

ngFTW · 07-30-2012, 10:20 AM

buzz,

yes 13.24% is not the correct answer. but i don't think its because the answer assumes "4 players, each having 4 random cards" but rather its because of the syntax used in specify the A2.

i guess i was not clear in my post (#7), or you didn't choose to read it.

13.24% is close for the 4 players which simulates @ 1player: 14.65%.
or i might approximate as 4*.0389=15.5% where 3.89% is the %of possible A2hands

monikrazy · 07-30-2012, 12:47 PM

i see what you are saying ngFTW

yes for some reason i was thinking xx is the same as ** incorrectly, maybe it used to be in an older version, but it is narrowing the range

good catch

monikrazy · 07-30-2012, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ngFTW

i happen to have an opinion on this one too.

i get a similar result as 8.8% but it is to the question-"how often is 35 (i didn't use 35xx, which is fewer hands) in the top 25% range, when we treat hero's and the board cards as known(dead).

if 2 players each have that range then i get that atleast 1 player has 35 in his range 16.4% of the time,
both players(2) have it .4%,
neither player (0) has it 83% of the time.

this is correct

monikrazy · 07-30-2012, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerSeemsFun

6-max
Hero has A2(3,4)B. What are the risk/chance of running into AAxx? A2?

HU
Hero has A2xx. What are the risk/chance of running into AAxx? A2?

i'm not entirely sure what you mean with A2(3,4)B notation, do you mean 2 black cards? apologies if i am not answering your exact question

i answered a few in hopes one gets it

question:
6-max, hero holds A234
5 other players are dealt 4 cards

what are the odds at least one player has AAxx: 5.85%
what are the odds at least one player has AA**: 7.75%
what are the odds at least one player (besides hero) has A2: 20.9%

question:
HU, hero holds A234
what are the odds villain holds AAxx:1.2%
AA**:1.52%
A2**: 4.4%

bachfan · 07-30-2012, 04:21 PM

I think he means "An ace, a deuce, a three or four, and a big card", which can be written as "A2[3,4]$B"

- Dan @ PPT