Conventional wisdom here at 2p2 seems to be that you should be trying to finish top 3 or FT and that min-cashing is for nits and weak players.
I usually agree with this logic, but in your case that is a hell of a lot of times to bubble. If you had min-cashed 7-8 of those 11 bubbles, you would have a significant increase in your ROI -- very comparable to having had 1-2 additional FT meaningful-type cashes. And, had you made the bubble, there's always a chance you go deeper even if you are shortish at the bubble. But if you bubble, the result is always the same.
Also, in your original example, you aren't exactly crippled. This bubble could have been avoided.
I think if you're not willing to risk bubbling for the sake of making a correct play then you shouldn't be playing in the tournament. But remember that correct play should include ICM considerations and in most cases the correct cEV play and $EV play with limit tournaments are different. Obviously calculations are pretty hard to do on the spot but if you can keep a tab on the other short stacks in the room it would be of great help.
Yes. I take this a bit further. I see no need to take unnecessary chances with my stack. I find trouble when I do.
I am arrogant when I play cards. I think that I have a skill edge in most games I play. So do most members of this forum. And they are right. In the worst case, I find that I am stuck in a tourney at a table no one has more than a trifling advantage over anyone else. In the best case, I control the table.
If you are in control of a table and fear no one, then I think that it is foolish at any point in the tournament to get into coin flips or even 60/40 propositions for your stack. You're going to find much better spots, much better opportunities, over the course of an afternoon. This only changes when you are under blind pressure.
I recently played a HORSE tournament at GN where I played to an 11 hour bubble. I'm not upset about my bubble play, but I am mad at myself about the play an hour before that crippled me. Having started with t12k chips, I was down to t800 before I built up to t115k. Then I lost 3/4 of my stack in a stud hand in which I knew exactly where I was at and totally had odds to draw -- I probably had the best of it even more so than in OP's example. But I didn't catch, and Stud is swingy. If it were a cash game, I absolutely played correctly. Here, not so much. Lesson: tournament chips are precious. Don't throw them around flipping against inferior players when you can do so much better.