9 left, 7 itm, opener is a decent reg with whom I have plenty of history. That said, given stacks, and his opportunity for small ICM pressure, who's flatting flop?

I'm trying to determine how much of his range he's continuing with here as a cbet-fold/call, he may be check-calling his KK/AA range here.

May be zzz hand, I'm just waking up.

3bet pre, you pick up like almost 20% of your stack. As played if player is aggro I think there are merits to just folding flop, if hes the type of player who wont barrel I am just flatting flop.

Don't like a pre flop 3b in this particular spot. Would be quite odd to open fold flop.

cc flop if he pots turn im folding

Is your hand history wrong? You are in position vs. the opener, so kind of hard to open fold. Much prefer pre. flop 3bet to any non-folding line on flop. Play it nitty is fine too, but then fold flop too.

As for stacking off on flop, you aren't doing great vs. any AA hand which he has a decent amount of. Maybe some AT hands fold that can't help themselves from betting flop, otherwise you are just folding out bluffs (which still have some equity, but obviously isn't an ideal spot to shove). If T was 8 on flop, it'd be different.

At this point, UTG+1 is unlikely to have a seven. I think if UTG+1 does have a seven, with only one low rank on the flop, UTG+1 is about a three to one favorite.

Oops. UTG+1 is no longer "unlikely to have a seven." (Neither is UTG+1 likely to have a seven). Now it's simply not clear. Now it depends on UTG+1. Some UTG+1's are more likely to have a seven than others. Some are virtually a cinch to have a seven. (That's how/what I think).

Since I don't know this UTG+1, I don't know if he has a seven or not. If UTG+1 doesn't have a seven and we raise, we may win (steal) 3300T+1500T=4800T.
Since it will be difficult for me to fold if re-raised, I think of this as risking the rest of Hero's stack, 10424T, to possibly win 4800T
(math is 11624-1200= 10424)

But since we're behind about three to one if Villain has a seven, we need to possibly win about three times our remaining stack to take a gamble by re-raising here. If Villain has a seven, we'd need to possibly win about 31200T to risk our 10424T... something like that... not a mere 4800T. We're off by a factor of more than six! We're nowhere near possibly winning enough here to take the risk.

Thus we don't raise after this flop bet by UTG+1!

Merde! (It's French).

Bad move.

This time we're getting more than three to one. Thus at least we have proper odds to call (ICM considerations aside). Now, ICM considerations aside, we're more or less stuck in the damned pot because of the size of the pot. Merde!

Going back to where UTG+1 bets 1500T into a 3300T pot, we are getting better than three to one to call. And that makes it for me a tough decision whether to call or fold. (After all, UTG+1 may not even have a seven). (In my opinion, T1500 is an excellent bet by UTG+1... really puts Hero on the spot as to whether to call or fold).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

+1

Since he is UTG, I would give him credit for a very strong hand. UTG raises should command lots of respect so gotta give him credit for something very strong. I'd put him on a top 10% hand.

I like the flat preflop. Don't like 3betting here. You are committing a large part of your stack, and more often then not you will wiff the flop. If it is 6m might be different.

Personally I don't like raising on a paired board. Even with the nut flush draw. However a board like 33T, 22T, 55T would scare me much more than a 77T board. Hard to put him on a combo that involves a 7.

I don't think raising is a bad move, just higher variance.

If you aren't 3betting this hand then what is your 3betting range here, just good aces?

why go this deep to gamble it off?! Get in the money first then u can 3 bet all u want.

I don't have a specific three betting range pre-flop. If I thought UTG+1 were a weak opponent who played too many hands and who always (or usually) raised when entering the action, I might 3-bet to isolate. However, that does not seem to be the case here.

After this particular flop, and given the information regarding UTG+1, my range for raising is 7***. Hero doesn't have that but from Hero's perspective UTG+1 may. (Or UTG+1 may not). I vacillate between folding and calling to see one more card.

If the flop were 774 rather than 77T, or maybe even if I held a ten in place of the king, or two aces or two kings then I think I might tend to call... but with only one low rank on the flop, I would tend to fold.

But I think it's a tough decision. Hard to fault Hero for either calling or folding. Raising, in my humble (believe it or not) opinion is way, way too risky. UTG+1's flop bet here says to me UTG+1 very well may have a seven or better.

Buzz

Buzz i was talking preflop, on the flop raising is pretty bad

Because you have a decent amount of FE with a hand that has only a couple hands that have you crushed.

+1

It's virtually always a flat on flop, in-game (flawed) mentality was to fold out A2big and dry AA (for those who think that raising only folds out bluffs)

It's a standard flat pre and flat flop / re-assess turn, have been putting in too much on-felt in small stakes lately after a live roll bust, to be perfectly frank.

On that note, buzz, I'm starting to get more active on 2p2 now because, eventually, I'll need to look for some staking. Not trying to troll 2p2, though, and will try to add some value to certain threads moving forward.

So... hello to everyone again.

phat

Always down to stake a 08 grinder

You think you have a lot of FE against an utg+1 raiser who is 2nd in chips and we have half his stack, let alone we are on the bubble? This seems super optimistic even if we do think he has a wider range for exploiting. He is flatting or 4 betting here virtually all day. If we are 3 betting it's for value not FE.

You are 3 betting because of the combination of the 2 not just one or the other, your hand holds a ton of value if called and he can fold and u pick up 20% of your stack without flipping. If I'm him I'm opening wide exactly because of your response. If this hand isn't in your 3 bet range then what scares me from opening wide and destroying you all on the bubble?