Hero (BB): $388.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 5.1, Hands: 71167
UTG: $880.96 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 2.4, Hands: 192
CO: $287.72 - VPIP: 59, PFR: 10, 3B: 1, AF: 1.1, Hands: 1281
BTN: $353.49 - VPIP: 61, PFR: 18, 3B: 3, AF: 0.7, Hands: 120
SB: $372.79 - VPIP: 44, PFR: 32, 3B: 8, AF: 1.7, Hands: 162

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with J A J 3
2 folds, BTN raises to $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $10

Flop: ($30.00) 2 9 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $20.00, BTN calls $20

Turn: ($70.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $52.00, BTN calls $52

River: ($174.00) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $128.25, Hero folds

do you 3bet pre?
donk flop or check raise?
i donk here because i see him calling with many dominiated hands e.g. tp+ worse low draw and want to get value from those hands. does a check raise make sense here? his cbet% is 60 btw.

turn is actually good for me imo coz his 92 combos are counterfeitted so i keep betting. i believe i have the best hand here many times.

river i think i can only check fold. anything beats me now

you played o.k...
consider 3-betting preflop from time to time.
i'd typically c/r flop as checking to the raiser hu would be my default play.
that way, by the river i'm close to being all in and fine with check/calling.

as played, i'm curious about villian's line...
he'd probably raise/jam turn with a 7, 92 got counterfeited on the turn, as you mentioned... he may have A23 but he doesn't have to have that...
he simply could have busted low/flush/straight and bet as the only way to win this pot.

villian probably realizes you'd bet trips on the river. he may also figure you'll have tough time calling without trips or better...

i'm tempted to check/call. it's probably close between check/calling and check/folding.

Interesting hand.
I think you played it fine, although i think id prefer to chk raise oop - 3 betting pre is fine too but I'm rubbish at it.
main bit i disagree with is I much prefer chk calling to chk folding the river.
At no point in the hand does the villain protect a monster, and he would surley raise the turn with a 7. the main danger to you is that he holds a 2, or a bigger pair, but he has been playing it as if chasing (prob the low A3, or A4)
and there is plenty in his range that he has missed, with you giving him the bluff opportunity.

I think 3betting this from the blinds puts you in a lot of bad spots, as any AKQ on the flop and you have no idea where you are at. It's also kind of bluffy because you are never in good shape if you get 4bet ... but you can have a lot of equity.

I'd x/r flop, and maybe turn after leading the flop. But it can also get ugly if villain calls a lot, as you have to shove a lot of turns (including this one).

I think x/c river is much more marginal than suggested ... villain is 60% VPIP, but only 20% PFR. Those types love to raise good AA/KK/QQ/A2 and limp the rest, all of which have you beat and can bet this river when you check.
Only positive is that he's the BTN so might limp much less often.

i actually do check raise this kind of hand on such a board a lot. but i found it to be very troubling: if the low card doesn't come (never comes for me on the turn btw) its very hard for me to play the turn and river correctly. just calling a blank turn vs a villain bet is awful and the river still to come you make your life very hard about 50% of the time

edit: i would also check raise the flop a lot more if cillain was shorter but with 90bb starting stack if villain bets 20 and we raise to 90 there is almost exactly one pot size bet left on the turn and as i said i will not know how good my hand is on a lot of turns

I'm afraid you're being too nitty about it.
You should have very good equity on the flop and on very many turn cards.
I personally keep value betting most turns: K,Q,J,9,8,7,6,5,4
if those turns come hearts, better still...

notice that most straight completing turn cards either give you top set or nut low. no reason to be worried, even from oop.
If you don't feel comfortable with your holding vs a loose BTN open+cbet, perhaps shorthanded PLO8 ain't for you...

i'm not so worried about his straight draws as about his 2 pair combos. i lose a lot of equity against those on blank turns. keep in mind he's a fish. i havent played enough hands against him to label him a calling station but i have seen a lot of fish stick with their 2 pair hands even against check raises and turn barrels.

problem is that if the turn blanks and he has 2 pair i dont have a lot of scoop outs

Disagree with this heavily. With AJJ3 our hand rarely makes the nuts but often has a strong piece of it that prefers lower Stack to Pot Ratios.

As played with a preflop flat, SPR = 10 which makes our pair of Jacks pretty poor and J high flush draw more RIO than useful. If we 3bet pre and he flats, there's 90 in the pot and the SPR is 3+ which is perfect given the structure of our hand. It's just 1 example, but look at how OPs hand played out.

Obviously, 3betting pre is also for value, but it's more for playability concerns. Even vs. top 5% though, we have almost 45% equity, and it's super MUBSy to be worried about a 61/18 BTN who is probably opening 40%+ here, having the top 5% of his range.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
5%	55.24%	231,114	323,335	11,944	154,995	56,249
AJJd3d	44.76%	174,155	264,721	11,944	98,199	56,249

3b also removes some of the positional disadvantage as it downgrades postflop into a 2 street game from a 3 street one. If we make the J high flush, we won't have to guess against 3 large barrels, cause we'll be all-in by then.

The only thing flatting pre does is remove the "OHHHH NO LOTS OF GAMBLE IS ABOUT TO OCCUR" feeling.

where do you get off saying some condescending remark like that when you post strat threads looking for help at 5c-10c?

i like this flop/turn lead, his range for calling in those spots is much wider than if you were to check raise. id check/call the river, i weigh his river bet pretty heavily towards bluffs. a guy with his stats probably will not be betting overpairs or trip 2s there for value when u've showed so much strength, but will take a shot at the river w/ no way to win the pot at showdown.

villain said in the chat afterwards he had a boat 92**. obv. dont know if its true. you guys made some good points about the river that i could call it because of so many busted draws , but i didnt have a read on him that he would try to bluff me off the pot here every time.

alson notice his bet sizing of ~75%. seems kind of a value bet to me, as i noticed most players bet the pot if they try to steal the pot to maximize the fold equity.

it wasn't meant to be such, but I take it back anyway. next time i'll use descretion when posting about much higher stakes. i'll also try to be more friendly.

OP, I apologize, GL to you and keep posting.

op here: no offense was taken by me. i don't get offended by constructive criticism

I strongly echo the sentiments that I would call river. Line doesn't make much sense.

Added to this the total pot is $302.25 and you have $128.25 to call. So getting 2.35 to 1 pot odds. It depends on his bluffing frequency. Say he is betting 60% of the time for value/has you beat but bluffs 40% of the time.

4*302.25= $1209
6*128.25= $769.25
Average profit per call $439.75/10= $43.97

Break even is ~30%.

Based on the stats you provide, villain's line, your check and my belief that villain also has a read on you, I think he is bluffing more than 30% of the time here.

i think you played it well, but should probably bluff catch on the river instead of fold.

I would 3bet this, even tho we're OOP, against someone as loose as BTN. Then pot flop and shove turn. Makes the hand very simple for us, and gives villain a chance to screw up.

As played I'm pretty happy to get it in on the flop here (against loose players), so I would go for the check-raise; leading is OK but it makes it quite likely that he'll just call, and you don't get enough money in the pot (leaving you missing value and/or with a difficult river decision).

The reason I'm happy to get it in on the flop is that they will be shipping worse A3 hands , and 2 pair hands, which we're in good shape against. We're only in bad shape against A3 + a set or a higher pocket pair, but we're beating or flipping with a lot of what he will ship. I'd fully expect to see hands like 9876 in his range if you c/r the flop and he shoves.

Having got to the river, this is a common spot if you're going to be donking on the flop and turn. You've generally got to bet/fold or check/call after donking and missing; the line bet, bet, check reps that you have given up, so people will bluff you a lot, even passive players. It's too weak to just go away if you miss, you effectively charged yourself to draw.

Here I would tank for a while and check the player's notes. It's not an instacall as he could very easily have a deuce. It would depend on his history of bluffing and how he'd played other hands I'd taken notes on. Against unknown player I'd default to calling at least once.