I think the value gained when you improve on the river is worth more than the value lost when getting 3-bet, which I don't think happens very often.

I think Hero's ahead on the turn unless Villain has a set or two pairs. While not impossible, on the basis of TheMainEvent's assessment of BB ("loose, probably average aggression"), it's somewhat unlikely BB has a set or two pairs (in my humble opinion). And unless he reads Hero for AA** and holds top set (kings) himself, I don't think he re-raises on the turn.

I originally thought raising on the turn might be a nullo bet. (A nullo bet risks losing but gains nothing). Here's how: If Hero raises on the turn, BB might fold a poor hand to the turn raise rather than betting again on the river. Thus if BB doesn't have aces beat on the turn and folds to the raise, Hero may actually lose a bet (BB's lead on the river) by raising on the turn. Meanwhile if BB does have two pairs or a set, he's unlikely to fold to the raise. In that case, Hero gains nothing by raising if BB doesn't have the goods, but may simply cost himself more if BB does have the goods. That's what I originally thought.

But as I think more about it, if BB is drawing for a flush plus low and folds to a turn raise from Hero, he's making an odds error (because he has favorable odds to draw). Thus by betting, if BB folds, Hero neither risks losing high to a heart flush, nor low to A2**.

I can't tell whether BB has a set or two pairs or not. Typically in my own experience, someone betting here would more often not have a set or two pairs, and would be betting something else, maybe a heart draw combined with a low draw... and if that's what BB actually has, I prefer raising to calling on the turn.

I originally thought that because Hero is drawing on the turn a call is better than a raise. But considering that pair of aces Hero holds and considering Hero forces BB to make a decision (where BB might err) by raising, now I'm torn. Perhaps a raise is better.

Meh. It's close for me between a call and a raise on the turn. I can see it either way at this point.

Buzz

Yuck at raising turn. He's never folding the turn and he can play perfectly on the river. And his draws are likely better than ours, if he is drawing and doesn't 3-bet his made hand. Just Yuck.

raise call call call

still not better than calling.

the fsdr is a bluff, not a value play, that does better than your other options (calling twice, call and fold, fold) because of what villain folds.

The raise on the turn is not intended as a bluff. I believe that our AA35 on this turn is ahead of villain's range. My primary point was that I won't love putting in another bet on the river when we don't improve. This way, the river bet is more at our discretion than his.

Except when he 3-bets you on the turn and you can't fold or he donks the river scare card.