Hi guys!

I don't play NLO8 hypers all that much. Maybe a 100-150 games in a month. Usually when I am at the end of my NLHE MTT session and have some table space. I like to play these a lot, allthough I suck pretty bad.

CO is a top reg. Button and SB are unknown, but SB has been very tight so far. This has to be an easy fold, right?

It is an easy fold IMO. AAxx without low possible is only decent in headsup situation, and in a multiway pot its equity is bad vs random cards.

that is a very interesting spot. Not sure what the correct play is, but don't think it is a snap fold.

Some equities that I think are reasonable with the description of villains:

Main pot

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AsAhJs9c	25.81%	102,773	197,329	11,214	0	0
30%	19.76%	59,307	149,337	7,593	26,086	10,777
15%	23.90%	65,128	119,030	13,089	70,734	75,515
5%	30.54%	78,199	110,680	16,741	151,154	81,839

Side pot

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AsAhJs9c	35.73%	135,195	281,341	14,871	0	0
15%	28.98%	82,485	150,591	13,933	86,228	86,952
5%	35.28%	100,349	143,277	21,936	160,046	86,952

seems like an easy fold, make that 9 a low heart and it becomes more interesting

I've found an approximate Nash equilibrium for this kind of jam/fold situation. It looks slightly +EV to call, as suggested by Brunolf's simulations.

I can't see this ever being a $+EV call, and the maths would be v.difficult to get to to prove that it even could be.

Can someone comment on the ranges that I proposed? Am I far off with these in your line of thinking?

thinking more about it, i'm trying to work out what the hell button/small blind could have that'd warrant the jams given that we know where half the aces are, utg could easily be jamming QQ42 or similar stuff, but i can't see how the small blind gets it in without at least one of the remaining aces, do they both have something like A2KK? there's got to be a chunk of counterfeiting going on, surely. swap the cutoff's stack for one of the other shovers and i think it's a call as there's less for us to beat in order to at least get some of the sidepot, as played i still think it's a fold for icm reasons but not quite so ldo as i first thought

snap fold

even if calling is +EV, the ICM considerations (2 players could be eliminated) make folding an easy decision


also: brunolf, those ranges seem very conservative for the end of a hyper, Co can shove almost any 4 cards and then BTN doesn't need a particularly good hand to want to isolate - SB is more likely to have an actual strong hand but can still gamble with worse if he feels like it

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AsAhJs9c	25.47%	99,244	196,820	11,318	0	0
****	19.02%	60,676	136,787	8,355	29,092	6,497
25%	26.66%	75,269	125,689	11,193	119,576	36,263
20%	28.85%	80,025	119,535	12,336	150,501	36,156

my casual sim above

20% for SB is ridicolous... hands like A4(57) or (Q3)(J4) are around that mark. 25% would be (AQ8)6, (J4)J2 or (Q5)(J6). 5% are hands like (AK)K6, (A2)J5 or (A6)(Q3). 5% seems way more realistic for SB.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
A457	32.34%	101,192	166,792	20,275	140,858	46,743
80%	30.93%	123,849	202,376	13,224	36,313	16,900
25%	36.74%	138,361	205,440	17,796	83,861	42,482

calling A457 in this kind of spot looks if not automatic, at least very reasonable, qj43 is much worse

its possible i am slightly off on the range here only because i don't remember the exact ranking of pql hands -perhaps someone could remind (or link me) to the generic 15%/20/25/30 cutoffs?

i did a little research into the topic, and i discovered something new about the simulations - i had been using some 10-handed equities in some 6-handed situations

a better simulation for the original op

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AsAhJs9c	25.68%	100,004	199,647	9,999	0	0
80%6h	20.39%	62,732	137,017	8,588	45,208	10,295
30%6h	26.06%	74,659	124,223	10,844	116,889	28,898
25%6h	27.86%	78,489	118,919	11,747	143,088	28,999

the ordered list pql uses are imperfect, and can be improved for multiway pots like situation described in OP - but i still feel like they are pretty good as a rough guideline

some hands that fall very close to that 25% threshold - A(764), A(KJ6), (A9)K6, seem to me very representative of hands that SB will regularly want to call with

the same list will have hands i find unsuitable sometimes ranked higher.. for example (QT)(Q9) but i understand that is because of the methodology in which it was created in which 6 hands went to showdown blindly, and that in reality it should not be played in that manner with smaller number of players

last one

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
80%6h	30.92%	122,759	200,425	12,863	40,199	17,467
35%6h	35.09%	133,877	204,721	16,334	70,568	35,672
A45d7d	33.99%	109,990	171,103	18,737	157,394	41,990

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
80%6h	28.99%	93,128	176,643	12,183	81,403	21,121
30%6h	37.27%	125,224	201,769	10,628	145,091	20,551
qd3djh4h	33.75%	123,944	204,816	11,099	87,397	17,400

you are right that a hand like (q3)(j4) does appear to be playable, according to its ranking methodology.. most players including myself, would not play it in that particular spot but not because i think ppt is wildly inaccurate about its value

in certain short-handed situations, players are also likely to get better equity estimates using the %3h simulations

Yes, it is very difficult but I'm telling you that I've done it and it's +EV to call assuming a jam/fold Nash equilibrium with 15BB stacks. AAJ9 with a suited ace is a strong hand even when then the other two aces are in the hands of the people shoving before you. Of course you can also construct worst-case opponent hands that give hero less than 10% equity.

I can't play on Stars but isn't this a winner take all so ICM doesn't enter into it? If it's top 2 getting paid then fold should be better.

A457 is a snap fold for SB. The decision is way more automatic than folding AAJ9 in the BB here.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/44...nkings-607895/

It is a 6-max hyper turbo with 2 being paid.

I agree with you that with these stacks and ICM calling A4(57) from SB would be a large mistake. In the context of OP's question it didn't seem very important though, since he will always be folding, and I got a little distracted by some of the other thread discussions.

As far as your original ranges, I think the CO and BTN ranges were both unrealistic, though defining an optimal shove range for BTN is an interesting activity in itself.

5% SB range is a bit low but for heavily risk adverse fine. Probably top 10-12.5% would have more positive expectations for the player.