I'm in the big blind with 8643

Preflop:
Everybody calls, I check (5 to the flop)

Flop 657 (5 SB)
sb bets
I raise
UTG folds
CO folds
Button calls
sb calls

Turn: Q (5.5 BB)
sb bets
I raise
button calls
sb 3-bets
I call
button calls

River: K (14.5 BB)
sb bets
I call
button calls

I don't get the turn raise, looks like a very good chance you're quartered at best and there's no way any of the other two are gonna fold.

Yeah, the whole point of me raising both the flop and turn was to try and get everybody else to fold to clean up outs. Is the flop raise ok with 3 players behind me still to act?

agree with this.

raising the turn to clean up outs? and yeah, flop is totally standard.

Yes, I was trying to knock out the button if he had higher flush draws, 84, or as low as an A3 low. I figure if I can get heads up I'll be good for half most of the time, but 3-ways I'm probably losing to both ends since sb's lead out meant to me that he most likely has 98. He called 2 with 8742 and I don't know if that's correct or not. However, if he had a hand like 7642 maybe I could get him to fold 2 pair and the better low. I felt like A4 and A3 with spades were a big part of the button's range when he called the turn, but I wasn't convinced he'd fold the river often enough for me to raise it. I think you guys are right though in that he doesn't fold the turn often enough to make the play worth it.

In general, and especially with great resistance, if you're trying that hard to clean up your outs and increase your chances of getting a piece, usually(usually) you're not going to get any.

Would you fold the turn or call down? I think there's still a decent probability nobody has 98 and I got a flush draw. I gotta figure my 43 low is useless unless an A or 2 comes and I counterfit somebody. I think I have enough junk possibilities to justify a call down. It's obviously an ugly spot and I'm confused as to where I stand. However, there's a chance I get jammed and if it goes bet, I call, raise, 3-bet I think I have to fold.

When the turn comes, I'm treading lightly; I'm not raising the sb and I'm not folding, and hopefully the button/sb don't jam this because my main objective at this point is to really just show this hand down as cheaply as possible. The strength of your hand and the value of your hand vs. the reaction you've already encountered, fall somewhere in the middle---imo, calling falls somewhere in the middle.

Everyone talks about 'cleaning up their outs'(and I understand it) but sometimes when you just call?...you get overcalls from losing hands, so, there's value in both imo. And again, this is jmo.

The flop raise looks good to me... we can fold out slightly bigger flush draws, a slightly better lo, gutshots, backdoors, etc. that would call a single bet. But the turn raise looks really spewy to me... very possible that we are beat or tied both ways, and we expose ourselves to a possible 3bet. I would much rather just get our so-so hand to showdown at this point. We're not raising for value, and the chances of button folding something that we want him to fold are pretty slim.

I don't like the flop raise. My intended line (in this situation) is to call the flop and fade a spade and raise a safe turn. We'd be able to collect any dead money on the flop from any spade callers or two pair / set.

People are more reluctant to call a turn raise for 2 BB than a flop raise for 1 BB.

Also, in this situation, after Villian 3!, you should know that you're hoping for a made low + 34, at best. I'd have no problem raise/folding.

i don't like flop raise either - i think calling is more profitable

going for some thin value on the river if you still have the 2nd nuts is maybe ok

raising the pot when we are never going to win more than half the pot and sometimes win nothing is a very dangerous choice - we may also fold out hands we want to stick around that are not going to be able to stand the pressure of multiple bets

a2x, a3x, a4x are some examples.. but sometimes people will call with worse hands and many they really shouldn't

imo the flop, turn, and river were all miss played.

The problem is (outside of us having absolute garbage) is everybody called and there are 5 to the flop. We only have position on 1 person and have to flop the nuts (not 2nd nuts) for me to even remotely think about staying in this hand.

After the flop...3 people have position over you, you have no low, and you have the second nut straight. When it's a community pot even though 89xx is junk for the most part it is in someone's range. Also, your baby flush draw (outside of the 1 outer straight flush draw) is garbage. Fold the flop.

As played the turn card completes nothing, however after we miss played and raised the flop, there were 2 calls. Now how do you like your hand vs 2 other players? You could be drawing almost dead here (dead to the 1 out straight flush). Fold when SB bets, and definitely fold when SB re raises. He or someone else could be free rolling you here.

River card is junk but hero must think the second nut straight is good so he calls. It wasn't mentioned (I don't think) so I am assuming this is limit. If that is the case for the price the river call may be correct even though we have to know we are either getting scooped or praying for a small win 3 handed.


Edit: If this is limit there is even less of a chance to get people to fold by raising. I would only raise for value, not a bluff in limit (especially if I know people are calling when holding the nuts that can't be countered). Nobody folds draws even if the price isn't correct for them to stay in, especially when its limit vs PLO8.

Would you play if there's only 2 people behind you? I'm not quite sure what the odds are that one of 4 players has 98 when I have one of the 8's, but I guess it's definitely in sb's leading range.

Nobody else knows either, because nobody can know the probability of 98** hands in the range of each of the four players.

However, we can calculate the probability any one player was dealt a hand containing a nine and an eight, and if that probability is small enough, we can multiply by the number of players to come reasonably close to the probability any one of the four was dealt a hand containing a nine and an eight.

Since Hero has one of the eights, there are 3 missing eights, 4 missing nines, and 38 missing other cards (a total of 45 missing cards after the flop).

Using inclusion/exclusion, the probability one opponent was dealt 98** is
1 - C(45,4)/C(48,4) + 1 - C(44,4)/C48,4) - 1+ C(41,4)/C(48,4) =
1 - 148,995/194,580 + 1 - 135,751/19,4580 - 1 + 101,270/194,580 =
= 0.057067 or about 5.7%.

Alas, that's rather large to get a close approximation by multiplying by the number of opponents. That is, 22.8% is too large. (Maybe 20%, something like that, is a fair ball park approximation).

Anyhow, before there's any action on the second betting round, it's unlikely (probably in the neighborhood of four to one against) one of these four opponents has the nut flopped straight. In other words, roughly one time in five at least one of these four opponents will have been dealt a hand with a nine and an eight. And in a very loose game (which this one seems to be) roughly one time in five someone will actually be holding 98**.

Then on he second betting round when SB bets this flop, Hero raises, BTN cold calls a double bet, and SB calls the raise, if we give SB and BTN credit for having a decent connection with this flop, the possibility one of them flopped the nut straight becomes more plausible. In other words, maybe this is the one time in five someone actually holds 98**.

Buzz

I still like the flop raise and treading lightly OTT plan. We have way too much to ever fold the flop for a single bet so it's always a choice between a call and a raise. There are only 9 cards that improve our hand OTT and they are all outs that increase our chances for a scoop in inverse relation to the number of opponents we have left OTT.

OTF there are actually better hands and draws to better hands that loose players could be willing to fold for a raise (A4, 23, 24 and bigger flush draws) and the only draw that has potential to turn a second best hand (and give excessive action) while we improve is the 24s.

Also cleaning outs OTF vs OTT works out that outs you buy OTF cost half for twice the value from 3 opponents that have shown no interest in the pot. The amount of opponents matters because it's quite a bit easier to clean 10 outs combined from 3 opponents than it is from 1 opponent. And more interest your opponents show more likely it is that you are beat both ways or getting freerolled.