villain (utg) is a regular in this game. 65+ year old retired white guy. extremely nice guy, but pretty bad at poker. has been on a 2 week heater where he has probably won $20k. within the hour, villain had gotten in a war with another player who was extremely tilted that villain kept beating him in hands, often thru suck outs. the tilter just left the table after blasting off 5 $500 buy ins to villain in the course of about 2 orbits. villain probably feels unstoppable. has been very active preflop. doesn't fold a lot post flop. (covers hero by a ton)
hero (bb) should be viewed as relatively tight, but has been caught squeezing a time or two during this session with mixed results. hero has just gotten out of the red and is up a little for the session. not sure if villain is really paying much attention.
hero dealt A
J
T
9
2
($1200)
villain (utg) raises to $20, 4 calls, hero considers 3 betting to narrow the field, but raises or 3 bets do very, very little to deter calls pre flop in the game. hero flats in the bb.
flop: $125, 6 players
7
8
J
hero checks with the intention of c/potting (or should we just lead for pot?), villain bets $85 as expected. one caller. hero pots to $465. villain thinks for a bit and calls with 5 black chips. other guy folds.
turn: $1140, heads up
T
we have about 2/3 psb left. hero?
obviously, the turn is a terrible card for us, but we still have the nut low draw. and although the turn card sucks, i feel villain's range is so wide that he doesn't have to have a better straight or a big flush here. plus we block the nut flush.
i also think we can get some smaller flushes to fold. the guy like to draw, but he also understands that mid/small flushes are not usually good to call ~$700 bets with.