Pretty standard loose passive 4-8 live game. Don't really have any good specific reads on anyone yet, but haven't seen anyone get out of line so far.

3 people limp in and I raise A2A6 on the BTN, and the BB calls along with everyone else. 9.5 small bets after rake.

Flop: Q87

Everyone checks to me and I bet. All 4 opponents call.

7.25BBs.

Turn is a 2

Everyone checks to a guy on my immediate right who now bets (8.25BBs in pot now). He just sat down a couple hands ago. FWIW he's a white male in his 50s. I considered every option. Not sure what to do here.

i couldn't see doing anything besides calling.

call! 3 of hearts on river will be nice

This.

Most likely the guy just hit his nut low. Any heart likely gives you the high as well as a deuce.

Also any Ace gives you the nut high as well. So I certainly don't think you should fold.

The argument for raising is that you might knock out some non-nut hands that beat you, both high and low. But I also think the bettor has nut low, so this isn't going to help you win low unless you hit a river 3. It might knock out shaggy 2 pair hands, and more likely, knock out 1 pair hands or gutshots that you beat right now, but collectively have a bunch of outs to beat you on the river. I think if someone had something as strong as a set or even top 2 pair, they would have bet it by now. So I don't hate a raise given how big the pot is just to clean up your high.

I'm definitely raising here.

If the bettor has nut low, then you're probably in good enough shape to win the high with just a pair of Aces(hard to accomplish multiway unless you hit the flush or trip Aces). And, if he happens to have some hidden high hand(like trips), then raising and potentially knocking out some A3's, A4,s 23's etc., is really big for you.

The pot is big enough to try and protect your investment, so yeah, I'm def raising.

Oddly enough and depending on what the bettor has, you could actually scoop this hand or take 3/4's if you can get it to heads up play; if he has a lone A3 and a 3 hits the river, you'll chop the low and quarter him for high.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: q872

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah6had2h	17.31%	10,578	153,313	1,078	48,407	11,182
qq, 88, 77, 22, a3	35.68%	14,770	229,318	2,735	185,200	24,718
60%	15.67%	4,569	68,950	5,441	102,193	28,529
60%	15.68%	4,476	69,102	5,463	102,018	28,845
60%	15.66%	4,416	69,284	5,458	101,702	28,685

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

579,760 trials (Exhaustive)

board: q872

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah6had2h	51.44%	63,356	283,965	4,743	306,641	6,927
qq, 88, 77, 22, a3	48.56%	44,152	291,052	4,743	266,192	6,927

yeah, raising does look prettu good.

I haven't read the other responses yet. (I like to pretend I'm playing the hand myself as I respond). Nice starting hand!

And nice flop for Hero!

Looks right.

If they're thinking, they might tentatively put you on the pair of aces for your pre-flop raise. And this flop is not particularly good for bare aces.

Ugh! Well... now you're pretty much just drawing, mainly hoping for a non-pairing heart on the river.

They might all be checking because they expect you to bet again. Someone in early position might be planning a check/raise if you do (bet again).

He might just be betting because everyone else checked. He might be holding A3XY. He might have a set or two pair. Hard to say.

The river might be an unpaired heart (7 outs), or an ace (2 more outs) assuming everyone else calls, there will be about 11 big bets in the pot at the end of this betting round. Thus you're getting about 5 to 1 half pot odds, maybe about 6 to 1 implied half pot odds.

And with 9 outs, 35/9 is less than 4 to 1 against you. Since your implied pot odds are greater than the odds against making your hand, you clearly have favorable odds to call this bet if nobody who has already checked raises. And everyone else gets another chance to act.

Raising is tempting. I wonder if a double big bet would knock out all those who checked. If so, you increase your chance of splitting the with guy on your immediate right. Assuming no re-raise, you'd be risking 2 big bets to win half of 7.25 big bets.

I'd be more likely to merely call if closing out the action. If you do call, I wonder what the danger of a check raise is.

I like either calling or raising. I might do either.

Buzz

You have 9 outs to the nuts, not 6. There are 7 unpaired hearts (you hold 2h), plus 2 Aces.

Call.

You're right.

I counted incorrectly. Thanks for the correction. There are 7 unpaired hearts. And either of the 2 missing aces is an out for the nuts, making 9 outs in all.

My apologies. I'll go back and correct my previous response.

Thanks.

Buzz

I'd really base my call/raise decision on what I've seen from the other three opponents in general so far this session (or what you know about their play from past experience if you're mostly regulars, as most O8 games tend to be). I like the idea of isolating the bettor who we assume has A3, if the other players are capable of folding hands like bottom two, open ended draws, weak lows with a pair, etc. But against a field that will call two bets with these types of hands-- and at low limit O8, these are auto-calls for a lot of players-- I'd just call.

this is my reasoning for call

if everyone is playing "well" then they fold marginal hands to 2 bets on the turn. not likely to be happening in this environment so raising valuetowns self.

I'm not sure what's better between calling and raising. I'm just happy that this spot is at the very least debatable.

In the heat of battle, it felt like I had a billion thoughts in 3 seconds. My first thought after the donk bet was, "Is this a fold now, i'm only drawing for half the pot, I'm not closing the action, it could get check/raised behind me, and I only have 7 nut flush outs." Then I quickly realized that both my ace outs are to the nuts, and my outs to trip twos may be good too, so I figured I at least had a marginal call, and plus worrying about not closing the action is probably a bit mubsy here cuz this is just not a spot we should expect a check/raise to be coming very often. I mean who flops a good high hand and then decides to go for a turn check/raise once the low comes in?? Pretty much no one I would guess, especially when everyone is playing on the passive side, which means we don't have to worry about anybody check/raising with a bare nut low either. And It's also harder for someone to have a two-way hand they'd like to check/raise with since we have the nut flush draw so we don't have to worry about someone pumping the pot with a nut low + nut flush draw type hand.

Then I had another thought: If I raise the turn I can blow out A5/A4 type hands and maybe give my A6 a chance, but then I quickly realized that the most likely hand the turn bettor is representing is a A3xx type hand, so a turn raise doesn't help in that regard. After all, it's hard to put this guy on a high hand he likes cuz this seems like the strangest line ever since who wakes up and bets a high hand on the turn when the low comes in? I briefly considered the idea of folding out a better high hand with a turn raise, but honestly my intuition for this game is not good enough to know what kind of high hands typical live people will fold if pressured in this spot, so I ended up calling the turn.

As far as results: a couple people called the turn after my call, I missed everything on the turn, the turn donker bet again, I folded, and someone else called. The turn donker had A45J which I was kinda surprised by but that hand still made sense. Anyways, his low was good, and the other guy who called the river had the high with two pair, Q7xx.

ILOVEPOKER929:

As per your last post:

Re: The turn- You stated that, if the bettor has A3 then raising the turn wouldn't help you in that regard, but, you're forgetting that, if the 3 hits the river,(same goes for his A4)you'll actually scoop his low with your A6 because you'll have a seven low whereas he would still have the eight low. Could you imagine raising the turn, everyone folds their marginal crap, he bricks on the river, and you scoop? Happens. And it happens enough to warrant the raise. In any event, being heads up with AA with a backup low on that type of board, is not a bad place to be.

Just remember, it's never a marginal call when you're drawing to the nuts in a semi-big pot. And, it's especially not marginal or even remotely wrong when you're closing the action for only one bet. I'm not concerned that someone behind you might checkraise because these games are usually very passive. And, besides, even if someone did checkraise, or, let's say you raise but one or two players call anyway--- so what? You're still drawing to the nuts, you can outdraw someone who may have two pair by hitting another pair on the board that they don't hold etc.--- but, these are things that you concern yourself with when that time comes. In fairly big pots, though, I prefer to give myself a better shot to win the money that's in the middle(even if it's just half the pot, because, half of a big pot = nice profit), which is I why I definitely prefer to raise the turn.

I'd just call if villains behind you are likely to call 2 cold. If they're likely to muck, I'd raise.

True, and If I just call the turn encouraging others to come along I am significantly less likely to have a good low on a 3 river.

As a beginning player this is a spot where I have no intuition on, specifically I don't have a good grasp on what kind of hands people will fold the turn for 2BB's cold. Will people fold top two on the turn with no redraws? Or top and bottom? or a hand like Q7? I don't know. Hell I don't even know what I'm supposed to do If I had a hand like Q7 with no redraws in that spot. I guess fold? Either way though, given that we have to at least call the turn, there HAS to be some decent merit here to investing just one more big bet by raising the turn for the reasons you've stated. Because we're only talking about investing one extra big bet in a nice pot, we don't need this play to work that often for it to be money. So, even though I don't see how we can prove this play is better than calling, I am extremely sympathetic to this line and I appreciate your post breaking down why you like this aggressive line.

Thanx for your insight Rush. Next time in this spot I'll probably raise the turn because when lines run close/debatable I prefer to take the higher variance line anyways.

If anything, the next time you're in that spot and you do raise the turn?...you'll get to see who shows up and with what. And, the longer you play the game and the more you get to know your players, you should have a better insight if plays like this will even work against them, and, you'll also become better at hand-reading thus giving you a clearer indicator as to what choice will probably fit better at that exact moment. Things change, your decisions to raise turns like this will not always be an absolute, just remember that. But, in the game you described and the texture of the board... I thought it was a good opportunity to try and fold everyone else off. I could've been wrong but it's what I based this decision on. That, and your redraw to the nut flush; that way, if one or a few of them called, you wouldn't be sitting there like a wet noodle with just a pair and no redraw. But, you don't want to become too spewy---balance and reasoning behind your choices(bla bla) ok? Cause, ultimately, all of these decisions have to make complete sense to you every time you make them.

Oh, and most definitely, when in doubt, and it's close between raising and calling? I think raising is the better of the two. When it's close.

i think calling is better at the table described and that raising would be better at a more agressive table (but not neccesarily better than a call in that setting either)

the main reason i think calling is better is that we don't have tremendous equity for the high to begin with, lots of straights and 2 pairs are possible, we allready have an extra heart in our hand so even less flush outs, raising into certain A3 hands can be an enormous error

our decision on the river may also be difficult and raising the turn won't neccesarily help us make a better decision on that street anyway

Hands you're trying to induce a fold from are mostly hands that have outs to beat you for high and occasional made 2pairs (like A27T).

If none of your opponents have any intention of folding anything for an extra bet then raising is a fairly small mistake.

If some of them are willing to fold some straight draws and/or pairs with live kickers then just calling is likely a small mistake (assuming the turn bettor is not a huge nit).

What we have to decide is if we have fold equity, and, I think we do. I also feel that this is a fairly dry board as the only real draw out there is the flush draw, and we hold it. Sure, there are a few straight draws(aren't there always?) but they're not draws I'm concerned with when you consider that they're not hands that will have any potential to scoop even if they do hit. Example, if someone holds a 56xx or T9xx and they're facing a bet and a raise w/only one card to come, are you really that scared that you'll just be bloating the pot for these guys? This would be a horrible call for either one of those hands. And, to say that "2 pair is possible" is honestly, well, silly. I actually ran a sim on two hands, one being ours and I gave the bettor an A3 w/top pair Queens, and then I ran it again with the bettor having A3 but instead of giving him top pair, this time I gave him an open ended straight draw; and you know what? We are only slightly edged out here by a small margin. There is no enormous error here that you speak of.

Keep in mind, and regarding the 2 pair part: let's say someone held an A2 and flopped bottom pair and a nut low draw, but, instead of hitting a low on the turn they get bricked and wind up with bottom two pair and absolutely zero redraw for anything else---let's say their hand is A2T7. Are you calling two big bets on the turn with that hand?

If we got this hand to heads up(and even if someone did call the raise behind us), the most likely scenario in this type of game, is, the bettor will back off and check to you in fear that you might have nut low/better high. So, when you think about it, that one extra bet that you put in on the turn has actually accomplished way more than you thought. And, of course, we'll never make a mistake on this street because we're going to accept the free showdown unless we hit trips or the flush; another bonus for having a positional advantage.

Against 3 unknown hands, we have 36.05% equity:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: q872

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah6had2h	36.05%	59,760	235,663	3,052	185,711	19,437
****	21.29%	11,077	117,154	7,409	125,573	18,239
****	21.32%	11,324	117,629	7,458	125,476	18,136
****	21.34%	11,310	116,976	7,327	126,400	18,335

Against one unknown opponent, we have 68.89% equity:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: q872

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah6had2h	68.89%	250,705	411,061	2,983	407,258	13,809
****	31.11%	27,450	185,956	2,983	178,933	13,809

If we raise here, thus inducing the two opponent who have already checked to fold, then we win more often, but we risk 2 big bets on the turn to do that.
0.6889*9.25-0.3111*2=+5.75

If we call here, and the two opponent who have already checked also call, we only risk 1 big bet on the turn.
0.3605*11.25-.6395*1=+3.42

I realize there huge flaws in my mathematical reasoning.

Even so, the more I think about it, the more I like raising better than calling.

Buzz

Sorry if it seems I'm "piling on," monikrazy.

certainly no need to apologize Buzz, i think this was a pretty interesting problem from OP and i gave it a lot of though before answering

note though that some of the hands we may fold out by raising instead of calling can increase our profits on the river by calling 1 or more bets with worse hands against our flush, 2 pairs and sets (if an unlikely ace falls)

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: q872

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah6had2h	11.76%	5,548	116,542	0	21,860	5,473
a3:40%6h	48.86%	14,440	14,665	150	567,260	8,653
88	39.38%	815	468,643	150	2,118	3,410

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

2,880 trials (Exhaustive)

board: q872

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah6had2h	19.69%	54	918	0	216	0
a387	80.31%	1,800	1,962	0	2,664	0

these are the type of scenarios that are not that implausible that helped me conclude that calling is probably better

depending on the exact hands and player tendencies out there raising will sometimes be better than calling

the difference for me seems to be that when raising is worse than calling raising can be a very large error (we can have less than 20% equity and get locked in to calling 3 extra big bets) while when raising is better than calling not raising is going to be a much cheaper mistake (i'd be surprised if we gain even more than .5 BB in EV when raising is correct, some of which may be offset by difficult river decisions anyway)

also note that based on the hands OP described

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: q872

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah6had2h	12.76%	0	153,155	0	0	0
aj4h5h	53.25%	43,683	44,183	735	592,871	3,112
q7	33.99%	2,176	401,927	735	4,017	3,112

raising could have gotten pretty expensive, even against a weaker 2 pair

it can work out nicely if the squeeze is sucessful, but you need to have some good reads on the rest of the table to be confident that play is better than calling

You're looking through the wrong end of the telescope. Raising is the only play because if you call you are virtually turning your cards over for your opponents to see. You are making it easy for the other players to read exactly what you have, a counterfeited A2 with some high hopes. Raising makes your hand unreadable, but suggests AhAx3hXx.

Calling gives better pot odds to every weak hand you face, plus tells everybody what you have, which could lead to any two pair to checkraise. Calling puts half (sometimes all) the pot at risk.

This isn't close, raise.