Yeah, I was about to say, I can't imagine folding in this spot either, but I know Death Donkey is no fish in cash games.... and he just won a WSOP tourney in some mixed game event, so he must know something about tournament poker as well.

Well that puts me in my place...

Seems like this link is required.

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy...ment/icm/what/

raising is obv bad.

I could never get myself to ICM open here id call. gii most flops though. Your hand is way more disguised as opposed to turning it face up and making it even easier for villain.

Oops, I misunderstood you. My bad.

we will have 20k behind with 60k in the middle if we flat call.

Described villian will be betting all the flops, most of the time blind. What flops are we folding exactly... might as well get it in so villian can't check fold Aqq or 345 type flops..

No he'll have 35k behind and face a 15k flop bet.

"Next hand: I start the hand with 50k and post the big blind of $15k"

Half of you don't seem to realize this is a limit hand. It's also a fold and not close.

Only if the question is...I really like finishing 15th in tournaments, what's my plan?

This thread is a great litmus test for who I would ever stake

LOLDONKAMENTS

You do not understand EV or ICM apparently.

Close your eyes and get it in.

you're more correct than all of em saying insta gii. But not sure I agree its such a clear cut fold. It's not the be all end all to cash but ICM is a huge factor here. Hero can see a flop and then make the decision.

Raise gii to me is pretty horrible though.

Okay lets do some simple maths for funsies.

We get scooped 20% of the time by a random hand. Our chip equity in these spots is, of course 0.

We scoop roughly half the time. If we do, our stack is 100k. Not sure what our chips are worth with this stack size but lets estimate generously and say a 3.5 bet stack posting SB next hand is worth 900$

We get our money back the rest of the time so that's 30%. Lets say 50k is worth 750$

So .2*0+.5*900+.3*750=675

So is our EV folding really less than 675$? min cash is worth "600 something"

Payouts were as follows:

1. 10339
2. 6385
3. 4609
4. 3387
5. 2532
6. 1925
7. 1488
8. 1168
9. 933
10. 756
11. 756
12. 756
13. 622
14. 622
15. 622

If I scooped and then folded sb, I would have 92k remaining (average was 115k). But I would also have the button. Average payout would be $2,460. While my EV in this situation would be lower than the average player's, I think it would have to be quite a bit higher than $900.

I put some numbers in ICM calculator (besides hero and player with 1k, had no player < 70k) and it estimated hero's equity goes from ~$1,150 to > $1.5k by playing this hand.

Where are you getting these numbers from? If he scoops, he has almost an average stack in the tournament. His EV is probably double the $900 you give him.

I was surprised how small the stacks were at the bubble:

avg. 115k
avg. (excl. 1k player) 123k
avg. (excl. big stack) < 90k
avg. (excl. big & 1k) < 96k

So 4-5 big blinds on average.

I think the equity of short stacks (not 1k here, but 42-77k) is generally underestimated by people, including myself.

I don't think it matters much whether hero calls vs. reraises here. Villain is very unlikely to both not bet and not call OTF, and in the rare spots he folds it's still likely he has close to enough equity to call.
Even if we give villain lower end of his range (e.g., K994,KT94), and use a flop more favorable to hero (e.g., Q73), if villain puts hero on range of (AA**,A23*,A27*) he has almost exactly the 20% pot odds in equity.

I like his position on the active big stack too.