$350 Live mtt bubble spot - Omaha 8 Poker Forum

16 players left, 15 get paid. We have been on the bubble for about an hour. Average stack is 115k, blinds are 8k and 15k, limits are 15k-30k.15th pays $600 something.

Hand 1: I fold utg, everyone folds to sb who starts the hand with 9k. He folds, leaving himself 1k and the button.

Next hand: I start the hand with 50k and post the big blind of $15k. It is folded to the sb who raises. He had 500k+ in chips and has been successfully abusing the bubble for an hour. I am fairly certain he is raising any 4 cards here.

I have AA2J with no suits. What is my plan?

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06-16-2016 , 12:51 PM

amok

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CrazyLond

What is my plan?

Double up.

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06-16-2016 , 01:24 PM

CrazyLond

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Any advantages or disadvantages to calling vs. reraising preflop? Or is it just a spot where we're both going to put all the chips in regardless of which line I take or what the flop is?

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06-16-2016 , 01:26 PM

FRGCardinal

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Reraise and be happy with either a fold or call.

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06-17-2016 , 12:35 PM

RichGangi

Laughable false & highly douchey

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CrazyLond

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06-17-2016 , 12:49 PM

CrazyLond

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So I 3 bet and the sb, who I thought was pretty good, says "man, that's a bad play no matter what you have". So that's why I was questioning myself. And then of course I got scooped and bubbled. Glad to hear it's pretty standard.

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06-17-2016 , 01:05 PM

RichGangi

Laughable false & highly douchey

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My reaction to SB

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06-17-2016 , 06:07 PM

monikrazy

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Lol

shove is standard

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06-17-2016 , 08:06 PM

FRGCardinal

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Sounds like SB got pretty good by dispensing bad advice at the table. It wasn't Hellmuth, by chance, was it?

Sent via 2 tin cans and string

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06-17-2016 , 10:28 PM

#10

NickMPK

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You should probably just get it in. I suppose it depends on the payout structure. If it is extraordinarily flat, maybe you could fold. But given a normal structure, I think you have to just risk it. Against a 100% range, this hand will lose ~20% of the time, win 50%, and chop 30%.

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06-20-2016 , 05:19 AM

#11

DeathDonkey

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Small blind is definitely correct that reraising pre is bad. I'm a little torn on whether or not fold is better than call and get it in on decent flops though. I'm actually fairly confident that folding all hands is right but would take a little mathing to be sure. And some assumptions about our EV in the tournament if we double up here.

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06-20-2016 , 10:08 AM

#12

chillrob

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OP doesn't say if he is the short stack at table, or anything about the other stacks. Shouldn't that make a difference? If everyone is trying not to bubble and he is the shortest stack it seems like he is going to have to gamble sometime anyway, and he's unlikely to get a better hand before getting blinded off.

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06-20-2016 , 10:36 AM

#13

CrazyLond

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The shortest stack at table was the guy with 1k. There may have been 1 other at our table shorter than me. No idea about stacks at other table.

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06-20-2016 , 10:40 AM

#14

chillrob

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Oops, I forgot that you did mention that guy. I'm no tournament expert, but I guess it could pay to wait until that guy is forced to play a hand. Seems bad that he left himself so incredibly short though, instead of playing one of his blind hands.

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06-20-2016 , 04:23 PM

#15

DeathDonkey

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Quote:

Originally Posted by chillrob

It's not bad if some other guy with 50k goes broke and you make the $! At some point you get short enough that making the $ takes priority over trying to win the tournament.

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06-20-2016 , 04:53 PM

#16

CrazyLond

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathDonkey

With this exact hand, I feel like it is going to be pretty hard to fold flop even if it comes bad. It seems like our equity against a random hand is going to be pretty good on basically any flop.

I did actually consider folding. But preferred raising to calling because if I couldn't get away from any flops, I might have slightly better fold equity by 3 betting preflop than raising flop once he's already committed 3 small bets (once he cbets) and only has to call a partial bet more.

Last edited by CrazyLond; 06-20-2016 at 04:59 PM.

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06-20-2016 , 06:18 PM

#17

ThankU

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Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 44

Stop and Go. ..

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06-20-2016 , 07:35 PM

#18

deadpeddler

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Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 520

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThankU

Stop and Go. ..

Tough to stop and go in position when Small Blind will be betting 100% of the flops...

clench teeth and fold seems best here..

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06-21-2016 , 05:46 AM

#19

OmahaDonk

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Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 4,932

Fold > Call >>> Raise. Bubble much?

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06-25-2016 , 07:29 AM

#20

pandick

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,445

If your folding aa2x on the bubble you shouldnt be playing them stakes.

Super standard to get it in, or at least call with he plan he's gona fire all flops and stack off.

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06-25-2016 , 08:36 AM

#21

RichGangi

Laughable false & highly douchey

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 9,546

I mean, yeah. Extreme nittery ITT.

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06-25-2016 , 05:39 PM

#22

zoogenhiem

old hand

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 1,632

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichGangi

I mean, yeah. Extreme nittery ITT.

More like extreme fishiness.

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06-25-2016 , 06:44 PM

#23

RichGangi

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Quote:

Originally Posted by zoogenhiem

More like extreme fishiness.

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06-25-2016 , 07:10 PM

#24

zoogenhiem

old hand

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 1,632

Rich, you realize I'm agreeing with you, right? I'm emphasizing that these people saying fold aren't just "nitty" but fishy.

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06-25-2016 , 09:54 PM

#25

CrazyLond

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Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,931

Fishy folks winning bracelets today imo

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