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Old 06-05-2012, 01:10 PM   #31
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Re: $1500 WSOP blind defense A2(J5) vs. Hellmuth

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Originally Posted by THE_BEAVER View Post
What do you mean by playable?
Basically because the small bet is the big blind it is not so much a big deal to lose it, and by no means is 500 of 4.4k committing you to the pot, I don't see how it is. People ITT are thinking in terms of 4.4 BB now but really you have 5 rounds of a table and on the 6th you're all in. You want to double up with the largest possible stack but IMO it matters more that you simply put most of it in good, which you can't do here because you invariably will throw the majority of it in on a flop airball. Like say they let you get the 4 bets in pre, and it comes air, you cbet and are called, are you now going to do another 1.9 bets with nothing because you are "committed"? You know the game. That guy is never folding for the next money. He knows your desperation well!

My own experience playing the last mini Stud 8 FTOPS told me I could go deep with less than 5 bets, I got a cash, nothing even nearly stellar but a cash, and I was in this situation long before I was in the money, most of the tourney actually, and lasted through the bubble like it. As long as I could pay the ante and bring in, I was never really committed, and I got the bets in good or had a pop in perfect steal situations.

FWIW I am never folding flop lol

Last edited by LUCIUS VARENUS; 06-05-2012 at 01:21 PM.
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Old 06-05-2012, 02:19 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by AKQJ10 View Post
How much of Hellmuth's two-barrel range do you think consists of (QT, KK, JJ, 99, 44, KJ, K9, K4)? Do you think his line of bet flop, bet turn, is consistent with A23, As2, etc hands that missed? What about thin value / protection with AA, AK?
I'm guessing none of us have played in a LO8 MTT with the Great One before so it's up to you to put villain on a range based on the play you saw. Correct decision making in these marginal situations (on all streets) is fairly read dependent imo. Vs different villains I'm going to take very different lines.
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Old 06-05-2012, 02:24 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by adanthar View Post
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
As Jc 5c 2h 36.23% 106,167 149,469 23,441 169,891 65,642
65% 30.82% 106,461 216,787 13,579 36,003 22,312
25% 32.95% 110,500 204,263 22,864 52,395 55,173

We gain very little EV from the extra bet going in and it ties us to the pot on a bunch of mediocre boards we'd rather be able to fold on.
My bias is to call pre as well for the reasons stated above.
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Old 06-05-2012, 02:44 PM   #34
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Re: $1500 WSOP blind defense A2(J5) vs. Hellmuth

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Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS View Post
Basically because the small bet is the big blind it is not so much a big deal to lose it, and by no means is 500 of 4.4k committing you to the pot....
I wasn't suggesting that we were pot-committed preflop. You're obviously not suggesting i fold preflop and "wait for a better spot", so it's not 500 of 4.4k. If i call, my stack/pot ratio will be under 1.5. That's not 100% committed because i can fold a flop like QQ9, but with any reasonable piece of the flop like i got here:

Quote:
FWIW I am never folding flop lol
That puts me at turn SPR under one and a pair against a player capable of 3-barreling a total miss. I'd consider that pretty close to pot commitment. Would you advocate folding this turn (after calling preflop) and playing on with your 2.9 BB stack?

Last edited by AKQJ10; 06-05-2012 at 02:51 PM.
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Old 06-05-2012, 02:49 PM   #35
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Re: $1500 WSOP blind defense A2(J5) vs. Hellmuth

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Originally Posted by AllInNTheDark View Post
He also knows hero c-bet that [earlier A248] hand on 336dd(?) flop, so hero's check here is very likely a sign of weakness in villain's eyes.
He donkbet A2TT on that flop, then checked the turn to induce.

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Originally Posted by mixgameADDict View Post
I'm guessing none of us have played in a LO8 MTT with the Great One before so it's up to you to put villain on a range based on the play you saw. Correct decision making in these marginal situations (on all streets) is fairly read dependent imo. Vs different villains I'm going to take very different lines.
Ha, well, i hadn't played against him either, except for that one hand. I'd been at the table maybe 20 hands by that time. Good point about how read-dependent it is, though.

My inference was that the kings up or better hands made up a small part of his turn barreling range. TBH, i think the only hands he's not betting on the turn are hands like mine: weak kings; middle pairs; etc.
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Old 06-05-2012, 07:50 PM   #36
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Re: $1500 WSOP blind defense A2(J5) vs. Hellmuth

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Originally Posted by Turdzilla View Post
Raise
Hellmuth is calling every street, why in the world would you ever raise?
Unless you want to lose more.
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Old 06-06-2012, 06:06 AM   #37
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Re: $1500 WSOP blind defense A2(J5) vs. Hellmuth

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Originally Posted by jeztuck View Post
I'd say that's pretty good equity for someone lying in about 950-960th.
Even so, it's too simplistic as you seem to be ignoring the fact that we've posted nearly a 1/4 of our stack from the bb already, with a raise in front, and that we may lose the 3rd player or even win the pot prior to showdown. This is repop, and repop again, and get the rest in asap on the flop. We simply will not get a better spot
This isn't about folding pre, so how much of our stack we posted isn't nearly as important. The question whether to make exactly one extra SB go into the pot when it's worth roughly +.1 Sklansky SB (whenever PH doesn't have a better hand and caps) at the cost of tying you to a KJ496r runout. We have few enough chips that neither OP or PH are ever folding on a board where either have decent equity vs. a reasonable range regardless of whether 2 bets go in PF or 3+.

Furthermore, the proper thing to do in a vacuum on a flop we hit is CR PH and hope the SB calls, which is a lot easier when we don't 3 bet pre.
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Old 06-06-2012, 07:18 AM   #38
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Re: $1500 WSOP blind defense A2(J5) vs. Hellmuth

The betting cap in this tournament, as in most limit games in LV, is five bets. I could have 5-bet preflop if i'd wanted to.

Arguments for flat calling pre are well taken. I don't think it was a very big mistake or anything, but i'm not seeing a clear consensus either way.
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Old 06-06-2012, 10:13 AM   #39
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Re: $1500 WSOP blind defense A2(J5) vs. Hellmuth

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Originally Posted by adanthar View Post
This isn't about folding pre, so how much of our stack we posted isn't nearly as important. The question whether to make exactly one extra SB go into the pot when it's worth roughly +.1 Sklansky SB (whenever PH doesn't have a better hand and caps) at the cost of tying you to a KJ496r runout. We have few enough chips that neither OP or PH are ever folding on a board where either have decent equity vs. a reasonable range regardless of whether 2 bets go in PF or 3+.

Furthermore, the proper thing to do in a vacuum on a flop we hit is CR PH and hope the SB calls, which is a lot easier when we don't 3 bet pre.
he probably said it better than me

also tommy angelo says, if there's no clear consensus in a thread, there probably isn't that much in it
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Old 06-07-2012, 03:01 AM   #40
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grunching...

see no reason at all to bet the turn in hand 1

hand 2 re raise pre...fold now
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