Originally Posted by IronedSheik
Do you think 35 on the flop "gives away my hand too much," or that a wrap with a jack is just that much more likely to call 15 than 35, or both?
More generally, is there much difference between a 70% pot bet and a full pot bet in how it's perceived? I'm new to this game.
As with most things in poker, it depends. But in general, on locked boards like this, I think you are much better off betting $15 with a wider range than $35 with a really polarized range (or only the nuts).
Good questions to know the answer to are:
Are you only raising limpers with AA pre. (I see some villains who play this way) ... if you are raising wider then how often do you have AA**/AJ** and what do villains think you'll do on this flop when you have AK2 etc. Do any villains like to bluff x/r here (it's hard for you to call without a AJ/AA), are they more likely to do it with a small bet or a big one.
Personally I'd assume that most hands with a J are calling $15 or $35 but then I'd probably be betting $15 with AT**+ (note that AT pretty much has to have two low cards with it, so we have backdoor equity there too) and I'd also bet some hands that are likely crushed by anything that calls.
The reasons to bet less, IMO, are:
1. Nut high hands on the flop AA/JJ/AJ are pretty much always going to be the nuts on the river, so you don't need to protect. This is not like a JJ2 flop.
2. Backdoor lows aren't that big a concern, so getting calls from A43 isn't the end of the world (esp. if you get more than one caller). This is not like an 88A flop.
3. Due to raising pre. when you have a J you pretty much always have an A too (or AA and no J), so people who can hand read should see your range as somewhat polarized when you bet. And I only say somewhat because if you are betting AT/AQ/AK here then that is often good, but hates a raise.
4. You want calls and/or raises, yes sometimes villains can call $35 with KQT here but they are much more likely to do it if you bet $15 IMO and KQJT is much more likely to raise if you bet $15.
5. You need to be betting wider than a J (esp. considering #3), some of those will be nuts (like here) some will be stuff like KK32/A432 which is almost worthless and some with be AK type hands that are good unless someone has a J. Bet folding for $15 is a lot more fun than bet folding for $35.