1-2 PLO8 five-handed. Villain is 58-year-old woman. There has been relatively little preflop raising (maybe half of the time) and no preflop three-betting in two hours. Familyish-feeling game with all middle-aged people and older rotating in and out shorthanded. Villain has been palying tight, getting to very few rivers.

I have AhAd5d4c OTB with a 550 stack. Limps to me, raise to 10, everyone calls (inc. villain in SB).

Flop (50): AcJcJs

Checked to me, I bet 35, Villain calls, everyone else folds.

Turn (120): Jd

Villain checks, I check, being a p---y about a jack. Am I supposed to b/f here given the draws out there? Bet/call?

River (120): 4d

Villain checks, I bet 60, she raises to 145, and I tank-fold.

How many times did I screw up? I feel good about the river fold given how nitty she was, but I think I screwed up the turn.

if she's tight-nitty, you don't have 3 streets of value.
well played, IMO...
BTW, whatever you do, don't bet/call the turn...

The only 3 possible draws on the turn are KcQc/KcTc/QcTc, and I'm not sure how much a tight villain calls flop with those. In fact given villains description I'd expect villain to have a J a huge amount of the time when flop is called (and thus. I think flop bet is probably bad, for certain it is with that sizing).

I check behind river, I've no idea what villain is doing checking turn+river with a J (unless she has great reads on you that you'll go for razor thin value here) but villain would have to have like AKKQ/AKQQ to call flop and river which is asking a lot. I'd guess it's _much_ more likely villain spaz checks quads twice than gets to river and calls with KK/QQ.

Ahh didn't realize there are "more" villains on flop, who folded ... and given that you are last to act betting flop is fine, but 70% of pot is still way too much as all your value comes from worse hands calling so I'd bet 25-33% (like $12-16). I can still check sometimes though, as you have 1 quad card and 3 royal flush cards to "worry" about and if you check people can call later streets much lighter.

Do you think 35 on the flop "gives away my hand too much," or that a wrap with a jack is just that much more likely to call 15 than 35, or both? In position, I was not as worried about the scare cards since she did not seem likely to donk if one of them hit and I could pot control (hence how I played it). Plus, her wrap-like hands would often give her high cards to draw to a full house that might make someone else (me?) a straight, so I thought a bigger bet was OK.

More generally, is there much difference between a 70% pot bet and a full pot bet in how it's perceived? I'm new to this game.

Results oriented IMO...when checked to 2x we can b/f this

You played each street fine IMO. If you bet turn she prob calls and you can check back river or fold if she bombs.

You're are lucky she can't put you on AA apparently or she prob gets a bit more money.

No bet for value here. Reality is you are only getting called if someone has a J, AJ or nuclear wrap. I think with 5 in hand the likelihood that someone has a J is pretty high and we get some value out of those hands. Hell if they have AJLL or something they may c/r and we get stacks in as a 95/5 favorite.

Biggest leak we can make here is trying so hard to make sure we get called that we miss out on value from the few hands that actually would call us.

As with most things in poker, it depends. But in general, on locked boards like this, I think you are much better off betting $15 with a wider range than $35 with a really polarized range (or only the nuts).

Good questions to know the answer to are:
Are you only raising limpers with AA pre. (I see some villains who play this way) ... if you are raising wider then how often do you have AA**/AJ** and what do villains think you'll do on this flop when you have AK2 etc. Do any villains like to bluff x/r here (it's hard for you to call without a AJ/AA), are they more likely to do it with a small bet or a big one.

Personally I'd assume that most hands with a J are calling $15 or $35 but then I'd probably be betting $15 with AT**+ (note that AT pretty much has to have two low cards with it, so we have backdoor equity there too) and I'd also bet some hands that are likely crushed by anything that calls.

The reasons to bet less, IMO, are:

1. Nut high hands on the flop AA/JJ/AJ are pretty much always going to be the nuts on the river, so you don't need to protect. This is not like a JJ2 flop.

2. Backdoor lows aren't that big a concern, so getting calls from A43 isn't the end of the world (esp. if you get more than one caller). This is not like an 88A flop.

3. Due to raising pre. when you have a J you pretty much always have an A too (or AA and no J), so people who can hand read should see your range as somewhat polarized when you bet. And I only say somewhat because if you are betting AT/AQ/AK here then that is often good, but hates a raise.

4. You want calls and/or raises, yes sometimes villains can call $35 with KQT here but they are much more likely to do it if you bet $15 IMO and KQJT is much more likely to raise if you bet $15.

5. You need to be betting wider than a J (esp. considering #3), some of those will be nuts (like here) some will be stuff like KK32/A432 which is almost worthless and some with be AK type hands that are good unless someone has a J. Bet folding for $15 is a lot more fun than bet folding for $35.

Half pot on river is called by what? It just feels like we'll get a fold everytime we'd win anyway and get raised by the nuts. Esp. with villain description, if this was some drooler calling station who had got to a showdown a lot sure bet and hope they call with 7732 or whatever.

I mean if villain doesn't have the J, then we can easily take this line with a J ... so it's not even like villain can think KK sucked out on AK enough.

I'm not sure how much live, low stakes PLO8 you have played but you will get called by all sorts of dumb stuff...KK, QQ...TT..etc. All the time: obviously not. Some non-zero percentage of the time? Absolutely.

If hero can't find the b/f river line I think checking back prob makes most sense.

I wish Hero had only posed the question on river as...Villain checks, Hero????

The c/r river in OP is obv super strong. Or she's a middle aged baller

this.

Don't know why you are thinking about betting the turn. Either you are drawing to 1 out, or villain is drawing dead. In both cases you should be checking; either to minimize your losses, or to let villain catch something to call with, respectively.

River play is fine, you may get called by suspicious people. The only time I wouldn't do it is against people who can occasionally bluff check-raise (because they do actually have a jack most of the time, so you pay them off too much).

Wow so middle aged women are c/r rivers now. What has the world come to. I play exactly the same.

1) well, she did sit down to play PLO8, so perhaps she's not your typical 2/4 LHE/Keno player.
2) maybe she saw hero was about to bet. internet kids give away tells.
3) women are more aggressive. men just have bigger egos and tilt more.