BB: $308.03 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 21, 3B: 0, AF: 5.1, Hands: 157
UTG: $285.16 - VPIP: 49, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 0.6, Hands: 37
CO: $218.65 - VPIP: 86, PFR: 18, 3B: 0, AF: 1.3, Hands: 192
Hero (BTN): $203.31 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 5.2, Hands: 65346
SB: $418.28 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 20, 3B: 5, AF: 1.5, Hands: 1554

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with 2 A 7 J
1 fold, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, CO calls $6

Flop: ($19.00) K 7 Q (2 players)
CO bets $18.05, Hero calls $18.05

Turn: ($55.10) J (2 players)
CO bets $26.17, Hero raises to $130.86, CO raises to $192.60, Hero calls $46.40 all in

River: ($409.62) T (2 players - 1 is all in)




soft table. only reg is SB. villain is obv a fish. pre is standard.

do you guys just call the flop or ship it right here?
We have 56% vs KQ** so we could ship it, however with backdoor nutlow and flush draw and pos on the fish i think its wisest to just call and reevaluate on the turn and let the fish make mistakes on hands that improve us.

on the turn my read is that villain almost never has AT here, he would pot that. My backdoor draws didnt get in and my equity decreased vs his range dramatically, i ship it in to get him to fold his hand.

thoughts?

Jam the flop all day long. Don't like turn raise assuming villain is a fish/unlikely to fold?

Sure, this I agree with.

I'd say raise is best for sure if we have fold equity, but I doubt we have much against villains playing 86 VPIP on this flop. I think it's much more likely that the only hands folding are those that we are crushing and we don't want to fold.

Folding seems bad.

Raising does make the hand much easier to play though, we always have some equity and sometimes he can stack off with worse pairs or bare flush draws or bare JT or something ... so it's not terrible.

If we are going to raise though I'd do it to like $50, but meh.

I'd probably just call.

Raising turn seems like giving money away, we have bottom 2 and he's probably never folding anything that beats us (maybe Q7) about the only thing going for it is to get him to fold random one pair K's or Q's that have 9-6 outs or some random pocket pair that has 2.

I'd call turn, and then bet/raise all the river cards we hit and call some of the others based on sizing and how likely I thought my hand was good.

I agree with you after this. turn shove is a bad play here, because he is a fish and also we give up the value of postion if we just shove it here. thanks for the feedback

It's almost a no brainer flop shove. The only reason to not raise flop is that you think he might have a set, and he might fold it if a straight card comes (that doesn't fill your straight). Based on this hand that doesn't seem likely

on the flop villian may also have stuff like JT with hearts, KJT or AK and you have him in bad shape.
i'm afraid you don't stack him if you call flop and make the nuts on the turn, so i'd say: re-pot flop.

his small turn bet makes it look like you might have some non trivial fold equity if you pot it.
villian should be folding better two pair here a lot. I disagree that raise potting turn is bad.

he ended up getting it in, but had he folded, people here would say: "great play".
that's why I think stopping after your turn raise was the way to go...